← Market consensus

PoliticsActiveends Apr 30, 2026

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

View on Polymarket ↗

Yes

20.5¢

No

79.5¢

Price history

No price · 0–100¢● smart-money trades

Smart money here · 11 tracked sharps

Strong

No 99%Yes 1%

11 shown · click a column to sort

Wallet	Side						Tier
0xc550…272d	No	$11.5k	83.5¢	59×	+18%	85%	Sharp
0xceca…3f67	No	$1000	85.5¢	10×	+11%	78%	Sharp
0x198a…3ca3	No	$180	89.9¢	1.4×	+13%	80%	Sharp
0x1851…ae47	Yes	$46	23.0¢	11×	+474%	11%	Sharp
0x122c…821f	Yes	$38	19.0¢	0.1×	+14%	88%	Sharp
0xea85…12dd	Yes	$30	17.2¢	16×	+9%	54%	Sharp
0x1bcb…435c	Yes	$3	23.2¢	3.0×	+32%	55%	Sharp
0x08a6…f3cc	Yes	$3	17.8¢	3.5×	+105%	13%	Sharp
0xc9db…2ad3	Yes	$2	19.2¢	2.0×	+20%	60%	Sharp
0x01ee…c603	Yes	$1	17.0¢	1.0×	+5%	57%	Sharp
0x108d…68db	No	$1	87.0¢	0.7×	+23%	61%	Sharp

0xc550…272dSharp

No$11.5k @ 83.5¢

Conv: 59×
ROI: +18%
Win%: 85%

0xceca…3f67Sharp

No$1000 @ 85.5¢

Conv: 10×
ROI: +11%
Win%: 78%

0x198a…3ca3Sharp

No$180 @ 89.9¢

Conv: 1.4×
ROI: +13%
Win%: 80%

0x1851…ae47Sharp

Yes$46 @ 23.0¢

Conv: 11×
ROI: +474%
Win%: 11%

0x122c…821fSharp

Yes$38 @ 19.0¢

Conv: 0.1×
ROI: +14%
Win%: 88%

0xea85…12ddSharp

Yes$30 @ 17.2¢

Conv: 16×
ROI: +9%
Win%: 54%

0x1bcb…435cSharp

Yes$3 @ 23.2¢

Conv: 3.0×
ROI: +32%
Win%: 55%

0x08a6…f3ccSharp

Yes$3 @ 17.8¢

Conv: 3.5×
ROI: +105%
Win%: 13%

0xc9db…2ad3Sharp

Yes$2 @ 19.2¢

Conv: 2.0×
ROI: +20%
Win%: 60%

0x01ee…c603Sharp

Yes$1 @ 17.0¢

Conv: 1.0×
ROI: +5%
Win%: 57%

0x108d…68dbSharp

No$1 @ 87.0¢

Conv: 0.7×
ROI: +23%
Win%: 61%