← Market consensus
PoliticsActiveends Oct 4, 2026

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

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Yes

63.5¢

No

36.5¢

Price history

Yes price · 0–100¢ smart-money trades
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Smart money here · 17 tracked sharps

Strong
Yes 100%No 0%
17 shown ·
Yes$4.1k @ 43.8¢
Conv
5.6×
ROI
+21%
Win%
36%
Yes$493 @ 60.2¢
Conv
62×
ROI
+42%
Win%
43%
0x205b…8edfProfitable
Yes$386 @ 41.6¢
Conv
1.4×
ROI
+4%
Win%
63%
Yes$318 @ 63.6¢
Conv
2.5×
ROI
+13%
Win%
80%
Yes$305 @ 61.0¢
Conv
23×
ROI
+49%
Win%
9%
Yes$200 @ 57.0¢
Conv
2.1×
ROI
+11%
Win%
78%
Yes$135 @ 45.0¢
Conv
2.2×
ROI
+13%
Win%
40%
Yes$13 @ 42.0¢
Conv
0.2×
ROI
+30%
Win%
66%
Yes$10 @ 45.0¢
Conv
8.4×
ROI
+29%
Win%
64%
0x648b…00baProfitable
Yes$10 @ 52.4¢
Conv
4.7×
ROI
+89%
Win%
69%
No$9 @ 44.0¢
Conv
2.3×
ROI
+113%
Win%
29%
Yes$5 @ 64.0¢
Conv
0.3×
ROI
+24%
Win%
23%
Yes$5 @ 44.4¢
Conv
4.8×
ROI
+29%
Win%
60%
Yes$5 @ 44.4¢
Conv
4.9×
ROI
+22%
Win%
50%
Yes$5 @ 44.5¢
Conv
6.4×
ROI
+105%
Win%
13%
Yes$4 @ 45.0¢
Conv
0.4×
ROI
+19%
Win%
58%
Yes$2 @ 3.9¢
Conv
0.1×
ROI
+25%
Win%
47%