0xd039…2532

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other215 bets

  Hit rate

  41% (89/215)

  ROI

  +6%

• Politics120 bets

  Hit rate

  43% (52/120)

  ROI

  +1%

• Sports16 bets

  Hit rate

  38% (6/16)

  ROI

  +59%

• Geopolitics5 bets

  Hit rate

  80% (4/5)

  ROI

  +96%

• Tech3 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/3)

  ROI

  -100%

• Crypto3 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (2/3)

  ROI

  +146%

• Economy1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +19%

• Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Won
  No$1.5k @ 71.0¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?Lost
  No$250 @ 61.8¢
• Will the Democratic Party win the NY-03 House seat?Lost
  No$371 @ 11.5¢
• Will the Republican Party win the NY-03 House seat?Lost
  Yes$172 @ 11.7¢
• 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseLost
  Yes$5.5k @ 27.0¢
• 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseWon
  No$9.4k @ 92.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Won
  No$2.2k @ 37.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Won
  Yes$73 @ 37.0¢
• Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Lost
  No$6.3k @ 61.7¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Lost
  No$7.5k @ 35.6¢
• Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Won
  No$3.4k @ 67.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Won
  Yes$586 @ 57.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Lost
  Yes$6.0k @ 27.9¢
• Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
  No$903 @ 62.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Won
  Yes$937 @ 35.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Won
  No$71 @ 62.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Won
  No$1.4k @ 35.6¢
• Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Lost
  No$5.6k @ 35.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Won
  Yes$16 @ 62.0¢
• Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Won
  No$3.5k @ 96.3¢
• Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Won
  No$106 @ 71.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Lost
  Yes$22 @ 21.0¢
• Will the Republican Party win the NJ-07 House seat?Lost
  Yes$83 @ 8.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Lost
  No$6.1k @ 18.8¢
• Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Won
  Yes$33 @ 70.0¢
• Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-07 House seat?Lost
  No$17 @ 8.0¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1.9k @ 39.0¢
• Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Lost
  Yes$7 @ 0.2¢
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Won
  Yes$2.5k @ 14.0¢
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?Lost
  Yes$36 @ 0.4¢
• Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Lost
  No$10.6k @ 71.0¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
  No$3.4k @ 11.7¢
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
  No$19.5k @ 55.7¢
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
  Yes$2.4k @ 17.0¢
• Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Lost
  Yes$311 @ 51.0¢
• Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
  No$349 @ 25.0¢
• Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
  Yes$72 @ 66.0¢
• Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?Lost
  No$867 @ 34.0¢
• Wild vs. PanthersLost
  Panthers$860 @ 43.0¢
• Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?Won
  Yes$1.3k @ 85.0¢
• US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Lost
  Yes$351 @ 1.4¢
• Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$47 @ 0.1¢
• Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?Won
  No$2.6k @ 79.2¢
• Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Lost
  Yes$136 @ 16.1¢
• Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?Lost
  No$54 @ 0.5¢
• Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?Lost
  No$0 @ 64.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$17.5k @ 54.1¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$43.9k @ 16.4¢
• Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
  No$5.1k @ 55.0¢
• Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
  Yes$5.2k @ 30.9¢

Current positions

• Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
  No$37.2k @ 98.0¢
• Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  No$5.0k @ 72.4¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
  No$2.3k @ 66.0¢
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  No$2.2k @ 59.0¢
• Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$1.9k @ 76.3¢
• Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Politics
  No$1.6k @ 94.5¢
• Government shutdown by December 12?Politics
  Yes$1.3k @ 32.8¢
• Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Politics
  No$1.3k @ 82.5¢
• Will Catherine Cortez Masto vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Politics
  No$944 @ 93.5¢
• Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Politics
  No$779 @ 93.6¢
• Will Lisa Blunt Rochester vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Politics
  No$658 @ 94.8¢
• Will Alex Padilla vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Politics
  No$654 @ 96.0¢
• Will Andy Kim vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Politics
  No$519 @ 94.8¢
• Will Josh Hawley vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Politics
  No$483 @ 96.9¢
• Will Kirsten Gillibrand vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Politics
  No$473 @ 94.6¢
• Will Raphael Warnock vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Politics
  No$451 @ 94.0¢
• Will Jerry Moran vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Politics
  No$298 @ 94.5¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$281 @ 0.6¢
• Will Jacky Rosen vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Politics
  No$218 @ 94.1¢
• Will John Thune be the next US Senate Minority Leader?Politics
  No$196 @ 7.0¢
• Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?Politics
  No$118 @ 56.0¢
• Will fewer than 215 House members vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?Politics
  Yes$115 @ 13.0¢
• Government shutdown by December 12?Politics
  No$78 @ 61.0¢
• Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?Politics
  Yes$68 @ 0.9¢
• Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
  No$53 @ 84.0¢
• Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Politics
  Yes$25 @ 21.4¢
• Will Jerry Moran vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Politics
  Yes$19 @ 9.7¢
• Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?Tech
  Yes$15 @ 13.3¢
• Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$9 @ 36.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?Politics
  No$2 @ 31.0¢