0xd039…2532

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd0394bd0de8d901c3fde039a86bf08e6aa4a2532
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.3pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

27% @ 20.9¢

Brier

0.130

Resolved

4726

Avg size

$182

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	42% (89/211)	+6%	211
Politics	35% (30/85)	-0%	85
Sports	43% (6/14)	+79%	14
Geopolitics	80% (4/5)	+96%	5
Crypto	67% (2/3)	+146%	3
Tech	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Economy	100% (1/1)	+19%	1

Other211 bets
Hit rate
42% (89/211)
ROI
+6%
Politics85 bets
Hit rate
35% (30/85)
ROI
-0%
Sports14 bets
Hit rate
43% (6/14)
ROI
+79%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
+96%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+146%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+19%

Track record

41% hit · 132/321

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	Yes	$311	51.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$349	25.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$72	66.0¢	Won
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	No	$867	34.0¢	Lost
Wild vs. Panthers	Panthers	$860	43.0¢	Lost
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	Yes	$1.3k	85.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	Yes	$351	1.4¢	Lost
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$47	0.1¢	Lost
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?	No	$2.6k	79.2¢	Won
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	$136	16.1¢	Lost
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?	No	$54	0.5¢	Lost
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?	No	$0	64.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$17.5k	54.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$43.9k	16.4¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$5.1k	55.0¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$5.2k	30.9¢	Lost
Red Wings vs. Flyers	Flyers	$980	49.0¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$64	63.0¢	Won
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$708	3.0¢	Lost
Canucks vs. Flames	Flames	$1.2k	59.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$985	57.2¢	Lost
Maple Leafs vs. Sharks	Sharks	$1.1k	54.0¢	Won
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading?	Yes	$65	1.3¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	No	$1.1k	28.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$738	28.0¢	Lost
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	No	$757	44.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	18.6¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce Ken Paxton as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	$47	6.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation?	No	$16	67.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$2.5k	62.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$208	11.2¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$434	68.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 2+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?	No	$50	5.0¢	Lost
Will any candidate win the Texas Republican Senate Primary outright?	Yes	$42	15.0¢	Lost
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	$785	5.5¢	Lost
Flyers vs. Islanders	Flyers	$840	42.0¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$1.8k	24.1¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$497	76.9¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	Yes	$45	9.0¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$6.6k	66.3¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$539	5.5¢	Lost
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	$5.4k	17.9¢	Lost
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	$1.5k	69.1¢	Won
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?	No	$66	66.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	No	$1	31.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	$3.9k	78.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$3.0k	0.8¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	$50.4k	60.0¢	Lost
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?	No	$113	70.6¢	Lost
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?	No	$405	1.8¢	Lost

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Lost
Yes$311 @ 51.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$349 @ 25.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$72 @ 66.0¢
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?Lost
No$867 @ 34.0¢
Wild vs. PanthersLost
Panthers$860 @ 43.0¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 85.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$351 @ 1.4¢
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$47 @ 0.1¢
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?Won
No$2.6k @ 79.2¢
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Lost
Yes$136 @ 16.1¢
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?Lost
No$54 @ 0.5¢
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?Lost
No$0 @ 64.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$17.5k @ 54.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$43.9k @ 16.4¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$5.1k @ 55.0¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$5.2k @ 30.9¢
Red Wings vs. FlyersLost
Flyers$980 @ 49.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$64 @ 63.0¢
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$708 @ 3.0¢
Canucks vs. FlamesWon
Flames$1.2k @ 59.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$985 @ 57.2¢
Maple Leafs vs. SharksWon
Sharks$1.1k @ 54.0¢
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading?Lost
Yes$65 @ 1.3¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Lost
No$1.1k @ 28.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$738 @ 28.0¢
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Won
No$757 @ 44.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 18.6¢
Will Donald Trump announce Ken Paxton as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?Lost
Yes$47 @ 6.5¢
Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation?Won
No$16 @ 67.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$2.5k @ 62.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$208 @ 11.2¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$434 @ 68.8¢
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 2+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?Lost
No$50 @ 5.0¢
Will any candidate win the Texas Republican Senate Primary outright? Lost
Yes$42 @ 15.0¢
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?Lost
No$785 @ 5.5¢
Flyers vs. IslandersWon
Flyers$840 @ 42.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$1.8k @ 24.1¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$497 @ 76.9¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Lost
Yes$45 @ 9.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$6.6k @ 66.3¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$539 @ 5.5¢
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Lost
No$5.4k @ 17.9¢
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 69.1¢
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?Won
No$66 @ 66.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Lost
No$1 @ 31.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
Yes$3.9k @ 78.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$3.0k @ 0.8¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Lost
No$50.4k @ 60.0¢
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?Lost
No$113 @ 70.6¢
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?Lost
No$405 @ 1.8¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$19.1k	87.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$7.5k	35.6¢
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Politics	No	$6.3k	61.7¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$5.5k	27.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.7k	27.9¢
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	No	$3.7k	92.0¢
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	No	$3.4k	86.0¢
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$3.4k	67.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.7k	74.7¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	Culture	No	$2.6k	86.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$2.2k	37.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$2.0k	62.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.5k	30.0¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	84.0¢
Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Politics	No	$948	78.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$586	57.0¢
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	Yes	$353	24.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$73	37.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	No	$53	84.0¢
Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Politics	Yes	$25	21.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$22	21.0¢
Will Jerry Moran vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Politics	Yes	$19	9.7¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$9	36.0¢
Will Mike Lee vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Politics	Yes	$3	23.0¢

Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$19.1k @ 87.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$7.5k @ 35.6¢
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
No$6.3k @ 61.7¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$5.5k @ 27.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$3.7k @ 27.9¢
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
No$3.7k @ 92.0¢
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
No$3.4k @ 86.0¢
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$3.4k @ 67.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$2.7k @ 74.7¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?Culture
No$2.6k @ 86.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Politics
No$2.2k @ 37.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$2.0k @ 62.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Politics
Yes$1.5k @ 30.0¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 84.0¢
Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Politics
No$948 @ 78.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$586 @ 57.0¢
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
Yes$353 @ 24.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$73 @ 37.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
No$53 @ 84.0¢
Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Politics
Yes$25 @ 21.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$22 @ 21.0¢
Will Jerry Moran vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Politics
Yes$19 @ 9.7¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$9 @ 36.0¢
Will Mike Lee vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Politics
Yes$3 @ 23.0¢