← Smart money
0xa309…4cf2
SharpEdge
+24.3pp
ROI
+52%
Win rate
59% @ 35.0¢
Brier
0.190
Resolved
749
Avg size
$714
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 38% (3/8) | +39% | 8 |
| Economy | 50% (2/4) | +102% | 4 |
- Politics8 bets
- Hit rate
- 38% (3/8)
- ROI
- +39%
- Economy4 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (2/4)
- ROI
- +102%
Track record
42% hit · 5/12| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | $2 | 0.5¢ | Lost |
| Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | Yes | $676 | 49.0¢ | Lost |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | $154 | 3.6¢ | Lost |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | Yes | $9.3k | 54.3¢ | Won |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | $101.0k | 46.7¢ | Won |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | $49.1k | 47.1¢ | Won |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | No | $10.8k | 15.5¢ | Lost |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | $7 | 76.0¢ | Won |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | No | $209.4k | 43.6¢ | Won |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | $28.9k | 50.0¢ | Lost |
| Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? | Yes | $4.5k | 14.0¢ | Lost |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | $121.1k | 20.7¢ | Lost |
- Yes$2 @ 0.5¢
- Yes$676 @ 49.0¢
- Yes$154 @ 3.6¢
- Yes$9.3k @ 54.3¢
- Yes$101.0k @ 46.7¢
- Yes$49.1k @ 47.1¢
- No$10.8k @ 15.5¢
- Yes$7 @ 76.0¢
- No$209.4k @ 43.6¢
- Yes$28.9k @ 50.0¢
- Yes$4.5k @ 14.0¢
- Yes$121.1k @ 20.7¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Economy | Yes | $23.9k | 60.7¢ |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Politics | Yes | $11.4k | 12.8¢ |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? | Politics | Yes | $919 | 16.0¢ |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? | Politics | Yes | $863 | 18.1¢ |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? | Politics | Yes | $818 | 23.6¢ |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? | Politics | No | $694 | 56.0¢ |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? | Politics | Yes | $298 | 10.8¢ |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027? | Politics | Yes | $241 | 27.9¢ |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | Economy | No | $2 | 66.6¢ |
- Yes$23.9k @ 60.7¢
- Yes$11.4k @ 12.8¢
- Yes$919 @ 16.0¢
- Yes$863 @ 18.1¢
- Yes$818 @ 23.6¢
- No$694 @ 56.0¢
- Yes$298 @ 10.8¢
- Yes$241 @ 27.9¢
- No$2 @ 66.6¢