0xa309…4cf2

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa309f903dbbd559e87d8d368834b8e41355c4cf2
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.6pp

ROI

+14%

Win rate

47% @ 36.7¢

Brier

0.192

Resolved

1078

Avg size

$760

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Sports	38% (9/24)	-49%	24
Politics	53% (8/15)	+10%	15
Other	60% (3/5)	+46%	5
Economy	50% (2/4)	+102%	4

Sports24 bets
Hit rate
38% (9/24)
ROI
-49%
Politics15 bets
Hit rate
53% (8/15)
ROI
+10%
Other5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+46%
Economy4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+102%

Track record

46% hit · 22/48

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Falcons vs. Saints: O/U 48.5	Over	$3.1k	47.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2	0.5¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	$8.7k	81.5¢	Won
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	$676	49.0¢	Lost
Chiefs vs. Seahawks: O/U 54.5	Over	$19	18.7¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$154	3.6¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$9.3k	54.3¢	Won
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$101.0k	46.7¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$49.1k	47.1¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	$10.8k	15.5¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$7	76.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$209.4k	43.6¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$28.9k	50.0¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$4.5k	14.0¢	Lost
Falcons vs. Saints: O/U 46.5	Over	$1.8k	54.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$121.1k	20.7¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	$1.8k	34.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	$1.9k	22.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	$112.1k	12.4¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$1.8k	47.0¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	$1.7k	47.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$11.4k	12.8¢	Lost
Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)	Chiefs	$4.2k	75.0¢	Won
Spread: Broncos (-2.5)	Seahawks	$3.3k	61.0¢	Lost
Seahawks vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5	Over	$1.3k	43.0¢	Lost
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys: O/U 50.5	Over	$40	43.0¢	Lost
Lions vs. Panthers: O/U 61.5	Over	$49	24.0¢	Lost
Lions vs. Panthers: O/U 55.5	Over	$1.2k	39.0¢	Won
Dolphins vs. Vikings: O/U 42.5	Over	$546	39.0¢	Lost
Spread: 49ers (-9.5)	49ers	$88	26.0¢	Won
Broncos vs. 49ers: O/U 46.5	Under	$1.2k	43.0¢	Won
Spread: Seahawks (-14.5)	Seahawks	$594	27.0¢	Lost
Spread: Dolphins (-10.5)	Vikings	$6.7k	95.0¢	Won
Spread: Packers (-3.5)	Packers	$2.1k	42.0¢	Lost
Spread: Eagles (-2.5)	Rams	$4.8k	69.0¢	Won
Titans vs. Ravens	Ravens	$12.0k	86.0¢	Won
Spread: Ravens (-2.5)	Ravens	$181	81.0¢	Won
Patriots vs. Bills	Bills	$8.9k	74.0¢	Lost
Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 38.5	Over	$940	47.0¢	Won
Spread: Bears (-2.5)	Eagles	$1.5k	68.0¢	Lost
Spread: Bears (-1.5)	Eagles	$4	66.0¢	Lost
Spread: Bears (-3.5)	Eagles	$11.1k	74.0¢	Lost
Eagles vs. Bears	Eagles	$12.8k	64.0¢	Lost
Spread: Eagles (-3.5)	Eagles	$2.9k	48.0¢	Lost
Spread: Bears (-5.5)	Eagles	$55	78.0¢	Lost
Falcons vs. Packers	Packers	$13.8k	69.0¢	Lost
Packers Team Total: O/U 26.5	Over	$1	41.0¢	Lost
Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 40.5	Over	$1.0k	58.0¢	Won

Falcons vs. Saints: O/U 48.5Won
Over$3.1k @ 47.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
Yes$8.7k @ 81.5¢
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Lost
Yes$676 @ 49.0¢
Chiefs vs. Seahawks: O/U 54.5Lost
Over$19 @ 18.7¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$154 @ 3.6¢
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$9.3k @ 54.3¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Won
Yes$101.0k @ 46.7¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$49.1k @ 47.1¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
No$10.8k @ 15.5¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$7 @ 76.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$209.4k @ 43.6¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$28.9k @ 50.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?Lost
Yes$4.5k @ 14.0¢
Falcons vs. Saints: O/U 46.5Won
Over$1.8k @ 54.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$121.1k @ 20.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Won
No$1.8k @ 34.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Won
No$1.9k @ 22.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
No$112.1k @ 12.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$1.8k @ 47.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Won
No$1.7k @ 47.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$11.4k @ 12.8¢
Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)Won
Chiefs$4.2k @ 75.0¢
Spread: Broncos (-2.5)Lost
Seahawks$3.3k @ 61.0¢
Seahawks vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5Lost
Over$1.3k @ 43.0¢
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys: O/U 50.5Lost
Over$40 @ 43.0¢
Lions vs. Panthers: O/U 61.5Lost
Over$49 @ 24.0¢
Lions vs. Panthers: O/U 55.5Won
Over$1.2k @ 39.0¢
Dolphins vs. Vikings: O/U 42.5Lost
Over$546 @ 39.0¢
Spread: 49ers (-9.5)Won
49ers$88 @ 26.0¢
Broncos vs. 49ers: O/U 46.5Won
Under$1.2k @ 43.0¢
Spread: Seahawks (-14.5)Lost
Seahawks$594 @ 27.0¢
Spread: Dolphins (-10.5)Won
Vikings$6.7k @ 95.0¢
Spread: Packers (-3.5)Lost
Packers$2.1k @ 42.0¢
Spread: Eagles (-2.5)Won
Rams$4.8k @ 69.0¢
Titans vs. RavensWon
Ravens$12.0k @ 86.0¢
Spread: Ravens (-2.5)Won
Ravens$181 @ 81.0¢
Patriots vs. BillsLost
Bills$8.9k @ 74.0¢
Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 38.5Won
Over$940 @ 47.0¢
Spread: Bears (-2.5)Lost
Eagles$1.5k @ 68.0¢
Spread: Bears (-1.5)Lost
Eagles$4 @ 66.0¢
Spread: Bears (-3.5)Lost
Eagles$11.1k @ 74.0¢
Eagles vs. BearsLost
Eagles$12.8k @ 64.0¢
Spread: Eagles (-3.5)Lost
Eagles$2.9k @ 48.0¢
Spread: Bears (-5.5)Lost
Eagles$55 @ 78.0¢
Falcons vs. PackersLost
Packers$13.8k @ 69.0¢
Packers Team Total: O/U 26.5Lost
Over$1 @ 41.0¢
Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 40.5Won
Over$1.0k @ 58.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$105.3k	41.2¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$31.4k	66.7¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$863	18.1¢
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$818	23.6¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?	Politics	No	$694	56.0¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$298	10.8¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Economy	No	$2	66.6¢

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$105.3k @ 41.2¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$31.4k @ 66.7¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?Politics
Yes$863 @ 18.1¢
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?Politics
Yes$818 @ 23.6¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?Politics
No$694 @ 56.0¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?Politics
Yes$298 @ 10.8¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Economy
No$2 @ 66.6¢