0x9ddf…2c83

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x9ddfa4d5b954379a03d19f87df36b9820b862c83
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+2.2pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

36% @ 33.7¢

Brier

0.174

Resolved

3389

Avg size

$63

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	38% (46/120)	+7%	120
Other	47% (26/55)	+10%	55
Geopolitics	30% (11/37)	-37%	37
Sports	26% (6/23)	-17%	23

Politics120 bets
Hit rate
38% (46/120)
ROI
+7%
Other55 bets
Hit rate
47% (26/55)
ROI
+10%
Geopolitics37 bets
Hit rate
30% (11/37)
ROI
-37%
Sports23 bets
Hit rate
26% (6/23)
ROI
-17%

Track record

38% hit · 89/235

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	No	$409	45.8¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$1.7k	54.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$898	57.5¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$170	85.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	No	$691	86.4¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	Yes	$273	6.7¢	Lost
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$38	3.8¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$2.9k	81.6¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$10	1.1¢	Lost
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$10	2.0¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$1.4k	60.1¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$502	30.6¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$3.9k	73.9¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$2.0k	23.2¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$64	5.3¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	$99	9.2¢	Lost
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$38	4.5¢	Lost
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Yes	$7	2.8¢	Lost
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?	Yes	$465	70.7¢	Won
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$34	4.9¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$15	5.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$9	0.7¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Over	$50	49.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$1.2k	59.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$5	28.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$504	77.6¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$31	7.7¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$509	68.9¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$517	27.0¢	Lost
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	$10	6.0¢	Lost
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$512	73.1¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$218	27.3¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$598	47.8¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$21	12.5¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$383	61.7¢	Won
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	$244	48.0¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$895	72.5¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$622	22.1¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$303	75.7¢	Won
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	$712	34.7¢	Lost
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$69	21.0¢	Won
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	Yes	$704	51.1¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	Yes	$896	75.8¢	Won
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?	Yes	$46	14.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$270	21.6¢	Won
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?	Yes	$78	14.2¢	Lost
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	Yes	$742	32.9¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$2.4k	13.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$108	26.9¢	Lost

Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$409 @ 45.8¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$1.7k @ 54.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$898 @ 57.5¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$170 @ 85.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Won
No$691 @ 86.4¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Lost
Yes$273 @ 6.7¢
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$38 @ 3.8¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$2.9k @ 81.6¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.1¢
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$10 @ 2.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$1.4k @ 60.1¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$502 @ 30.6¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$3.9k @ 73.9¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 23.2¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$64 @ 5.3¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Lost
Yes$99 @ 9.2¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$38 @ 4.5¢
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?Lost
Yes$7 @ 2.8¢
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?Won
Yes$465 @ 70.7¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$34 @ 4.9¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 5.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.7¢
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5Lost
Over$50 @ 49.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$1.2k @ 59.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 28.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
No$504 @ 77.6¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$31 @ 7.7¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$509 @ 68.9¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$517 @ 27.0¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$10 @ 6.0¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$512 @ 73.1¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$218 @ 27.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$598 @ 47.8¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$21 @ 12.5¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$383 @ 61.7¢
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Won
Yes$244 @ 48.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$895 @ 72.5¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$622 @ 22.1¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$303 @ 75.7¢
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?Lost
Yes$712 @ 34.7¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$69 @ 21.0¢
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?Won
Yes$704 @ 51.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Won
Yes$896 @ 75.8¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?Lost
Yes$46 @ 14.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$270 @ 21.6¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?Lost
Yes$78 @ 14.2¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Lost
Yes$742 @ 32.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$2.4k @ 13.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$108 @ 26.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Politics	Yes	$8.5k	95.1¢
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	Politics	No	$4.6k	92.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$3.7k	74.8¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$3.3k	94.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.7k	62.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.8k	58.4¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1.7k	55.2¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.4k	38.6¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	22.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$667	30.4¢
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$495	38.7¢
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$480	44.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	No	$330	44.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Politics	Yes	$321	36.9¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$311	41.0¢
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$308	81.2¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$285	32.5¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$279	13.6¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Politics	Yes	$278	88.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?	Politics	No	$272	90.7¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$197	8.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$187	16.2¢
Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent?	Politics	No	$166	83.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?	Politics	Yes	$148	50.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$141	20.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Politics	Yes	$91	11.1¢
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?	Politics	No	$89	89.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$80	4.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?	Politics	Yes	$69	18.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$67	5.3¢

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Politics
Yes$8.5k @ 95.1¢
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?Politics
No$4.6k @ 92.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$3.7k @ 74.8¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$3.3k @ 94.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$2.7k @ 62.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$1.8k @ 58.4¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$1.7k @ 55.2¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$1.4k @ 38.6¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 22.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$667 @ 30.4¢
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$495 @ 38.7¢
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$480 @ 44.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
No$330 @ 44.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Politics
Yes$321 @ 36.9¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$311 @ 41.0¢
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?Geopolitics
No$308 @ 81.2¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Business
Yes$285 @ 32.5¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$279 @ 13.6¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Politics
Yes$278 @ 88.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?Politics
No$272 @ 90.7¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Politics
Yes$197 @ 8.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Politics
Yes$187 @ 16.2¢
Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent?Politics
No$166 @ 83.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?Politics
Yes$148 @ 50.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$141 @ 20.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
Yes$91 @ 11.1¢
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?Politics
No$89 @ 89.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$80 @ 4.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?Politics
Yes$69 @ 18.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$67 @ 5.3¢