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Specialization by sphere

• Politics12 bets

  Hit rate

  92% (11/12)

  ROI

  +18%

• Other5 bets

  Hit rate

  80% (4/5)

  ROI

  -5%

• Geopolitics3 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (3/3)

  ROI

  +14%

• Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
  No$271 @ 67.7¢
• No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30?Won
  No$516 @ 88.1¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
  No$759 @ 82.0¢
• Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
  No$832 @ 85.7¢
• Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?Won
  No$1.5k @ 84.7¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
  No$850 @ 85.0¢
• Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?Won
  Yes$351 @ 87.5¢
• US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?Lost
  No$435 @ 87.0¢
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Won
  No$1.8k @ 87.5¢
• Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$887 @ 88.7¢
• Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$90 @ 89.8¢
• Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
  No$356 @ 89.0¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?Won
  No$191 @ 89.0¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Won
  No$1.2k @ 85.5¢
• Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30?Won
  No$943 @ 87.4¢
• Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$49 @ 6.2¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Won
  No$634 @ 79.3¢
• Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?Won
  No$1.3k @ 87.9¢
• Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1100?Won
  Yes$90 @ 87.7¢
• Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?Won
  No$395 @ 78.6¢