0x5ff7…f7f0

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics33 bets

  Hit rate

  88% (29/33)

  ROI

  +14%

• Geopolitics9 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (9/9)

  ROI

  +11%

• Other7 bets

  Hit rate

  71% (5/7)

  ROI

  -12%

• Economy1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +13%

• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Won
  No$11.4k @ 88.1¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Lost
  No$470 @ 94.0¢
• France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$19 @ 94.8¢
• Will Houthis target Syria by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$121 @ 93.1¢
• Will Iran target Oman by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$73 @ 91.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?Won
  No$5.7k @ 93.4¢
• Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?Won
  No$988 @ 98.8¢
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$372 @ 86.8¢
• Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
  No$271 @ 67.7¢
• No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30?Won
  No$516 @ 88.1¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
  No$759 @ 82.0¢
• Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
  No$832 @ 85.7¢
• Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?Won
  No$766 @ 76.6¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$13.5k @ 70.3¢
• Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?Won
  No$1.5k @ 84.7¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
  No$850 @ 85.0¢
• Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?Won
  Yes$351 @ 87.5¢
• US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?Lost
  No$435 @ 87.0¢
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Won
  No$1.8k @ 87.5¢
• Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$797 @ 87.8¢
• Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$887 @ 88.7¢
• Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$90 @ 89.8¢
• Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
  No$356 @ 89.0¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?Won
  No$191 @ 89.0¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Won
  No$1.2k @ 85.5¢
• Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30?Won
  No$943 @ 87.4¢
• Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$49 @ 6.2¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Won
  No$634 @ 79.3¢
• Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?Won
  No$1.3k @ 87.9¢
• Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?Won
  No$2.0k @ 79.3¢
• Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1100?Won
  Yes$90 @ 87.7¢
• Spain snap election called in 2026?Lost
  No$35 @ 76.0¢
• Spain snap election called in 2026?Won
  Yes$92 @ 36.0¢
• Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?Won
  No$395 @ 78.6¢
• Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$50 @ 93.1¢
• Will Trump issue an AI Safety Executive Order by October 31?Won
  No$272 @ 90.8¢
• Spain snap election called by October 31?Won
  Yes$102 @ 51.0¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Won
  No$5.5k @ 91.9¢
• Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Won
  Yes$3.3k @ 93.4¢
• Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?Lost
  No$86 @ 86.0¢
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Won
  Yes$2.9k @ 97.2¢
• Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?Lost
  Yes$2.1k @ 85.3¢
• Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?Won
  No$1.9k @ 94.2¢
• Pakistan military action against Yemen by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$1.3k @ 94.8¢
• Will Iran target Oman by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$395 @ 98.8¢
• Russia military action against an EU country by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$1.7k @ 98.1¢
• Will Trump issue an AI Safety Executive Order by September 30?Won
  No$242 @ 96.7¢
• Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in September 2026?Won
  No$189 @ 98.0¢
• Netanyahu and Pezeshkian meet by September 30?Won
  No$470 @ 94.0¢
• Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 43.0 in September?Won
  No$79 @ 88.3¢

Current positions

• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$31.8k @ 83.7¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
  No$12.4k @ 82.8¢
• Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$9.8k @ 83.8¢
• Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$7.8k @ 78.0¢
• Will PSOE receive between 24% and 26% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?Politics
  No$3.4k @ 89.2¢
• Will PSOE win 102-107 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Politics
  No$1.9k @ 83.1¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$1.8k @ 88.0¢
• Will Vox receive 22% or more of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?Politics
  No$1.4k @ 93.2¢
• Pakistan military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$1.4k @ 73.5¢
• Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?Politics
  No$1.1k @ 90.1¢
• Will Trump issue an AI Safety Executive Order by December 31?Politics
  No$1.0k @ 86.4¢
• Will Iran target Oman by November 30, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$1.0k @ 88.2¢
• Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote?Politics
  No$932 @ 49.3¢
• Will PSOE win the most seats in Tarragona in the 2026 Spanish general election?Politics
  Yes$864 @ 86.4¢
• Will Vox win the most seats in Guadalajara in the 2026 Spanish general election?Politics
  No$864 @ 86.4¢
• Will Iran target Oman by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$764 @ 85.0¢
• Will PSOE win fewer than 96 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Politics
  No$680 @ 92.5¢
• Will the right bloc win the Spanish election by 80+ seats?Politics
  No$557 @ 90.4¢
• Will PSOE win 96-101 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Politics
  No$537 @ 91.6¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?Politics
  No$493 @ 93.9¢
• Will the right bloc win the Spanish election by 70-79 seats?Politics
  No$461 @ 88.3¢
• Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?Politics
  No$445 @ 89.0¢
• Will PP win 144 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Politics
  No$442 @ 88.4¢
• Will PP win the Spanish election by 36+ seats over PSOE?Politics
  No$404 @ 91.9¢
• Will the right bloc win the Spanish election by 60-69 seats?Politics
  No$392 @ 87.1¢
• Will EH Bildu win the most seats in Gipuzkoa in the 2026 Spanish general election?Politics
  Yes$391 @ 74.5¢
• Will Trump issue an AI Safety Executive Order by November 30?Politics
  No$366 @ 91.5¢
• Will PSOE win the most seats in Huelva in the 2026 Spanish general election?Politics
  Yes$363 @ 36.3¢
• Will PSOE receive less than 24% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?Politics
  No$331 @ 95.8¢
• Will PP win the second-most seats in Barcelona in the 2026 Spanish general election?Politics
  No$312 @ 91.6¢