0x3a8a…7699

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3a8aa345d5db7ec5138298c8c4f4540259be7699
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+19.9pp

ROI

+33%

Win rate

64% @ 43.8¢

Brier

0.144

Resolved

3478

Avg size

$1.4k

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	74% (25/34)	-29%	34
Tech	100% (22/22)	+13%	22
Sports	44% (8/18)	-2%	18
Economy	85% (11/13)	+32%	13
Crypto	80% (8/10)	+28%	10
Geopolitics	89% (8/9)	-20%	9
Other	17% (1/6)	-99%	6
Business	100% (1/1)	+8%	1

Politics34 bets
Hit rate
74% (25/34)
ROI
-29%
Tech22 bets
Hit rate
100% (22/22)
ROI
+13%
Sports18 bets
Hit rate
44% (8/18)
ROI
-2%
Economy13 bets
Hit rate
85% (11/13)
ROI
+32%
Crypto10 bets
Hit rate
80% (8/10)
ROI
+28%
Geopolitics9 bets
Hit rate
89% (8/9)
ROI
-20%
Other6 bets
Hit rate
17% (1/6)
ROI
-99%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+8%

Track record

74% hit · 84/113

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	$10.6k	39.4¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$462	0.5¢	Lost
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$706	70.0¢	Won
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	No	$5.0k	10.0¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	$466.7k	15.9¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$102.6k	39.0¢	Won
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	$415	83.0¢	Lost
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	$1.2k	60.4¢	Won
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	$5.4k	54.2¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	7.0¢	Lost
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June?	No	$5.2k	74.8¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2.3k	15.5¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$1	30.0¢	Won
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$1.7k	88.4¢	Won
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	No	$61	51.0¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$272	16.0¢	Won
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	$18.9k	77.3¢	Lost
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$26.2k	42.8¢	Won
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	$5.5k	84.5¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$7.1k	8.9¢	Lost
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$9.1k	11.3¢	Lost
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$13.0k	16.3¢	Won
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2.5k	2.5¢	Lost
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$13.6k	16.9¢	Lost
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$6.7k	8.4¢	Lost
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$5.4k	9.5¢	Lost
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$2.0k	97.6¢	Won
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$4.9k	70.7¢	Won
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?	Yes	$1.4k	85.3¢	Won
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	$2.4k	97.1¢	Won
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	$5.9k	98.1¢	Won
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	$3.0k	98.7¢	Won
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$8.9k	97.7¢	Won
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?	No	$4.2k	93.7¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$23.7k	63.1¢	Won
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes	$5.3k	76.0¢	Won
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?	Yes	$4.6k	38.0¢	Lost
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	$28.5k	95.0¢	Won
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$0	0.0¢	Won
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by June 30?	No	$135	95.0¢	Won
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	$26.1k	95.9¢	Won
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	$3.3k	95.4¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$14.7k	43.1¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	$58.0k	96.7¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$925	18.5¢	Lost
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?	No	$2.0k	98.2¢	Won
Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	$1.9k	96.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	Yes	$80	8.0¢	Lost
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	No	$5.7k	94.6¢	Won
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	$2.7k	91.0¢	Won

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Won
Yes$10.6k @ 39.4¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$462 @ 0.5¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?Won
Yes$706 @ 70.0¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?Lost
No$5.0k @ 10.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
No$466.7k @ 15.9¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$102.6k @ 39.0¢
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?Lost
Yes$415 @ 83.0¢
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 60.4¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Won
No$5.4k @ 54.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 7.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June?Won
No$5.2k @ 74.8¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 15.5¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$1 @ 30.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$1.7k @ 88.4¢
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Won
No$61 @ 51.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$272 @ 16.0¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Lost
No$18.9k @ 77.3¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Won
Yes$26.2k @ 42.8¢
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?Won
No$5.5k @ 84.5¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$7.1k @ 8.9¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$9.1k @ 11.3¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$13.0k @ 16.3¢
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$2.5k @ 2.5¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$13.6k @ 16.9¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$6.7k @ 8.4¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$5.4k @ 9.5¢
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$2.0k @ 97.6¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
Yes$4.9k @ 70.7¢
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 85.3¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?Won
No$2.4k @ 97.1¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?Won
No$5.9k @ 98.1¢
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?Won
No$3.0k @ 98.7¢
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$8.9k @ 97.7¢
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?Won
No$4.2k @ 93.7¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$23.7k @ 63.1¢
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?Won
Yes$5.3k @ 76.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?Lost
Yes$4.6k @ 38.0¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?Won
No$28.5k @ 95.0¢
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by June 30?Won
No$135 @ 95.0¢
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?Won
No$26.1k @ 95.9¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Won
No$3.3k @ 95.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$14.7k @ 43.1¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Won
No$58.0k @ 96.7¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$925 @ 18.5¢
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?Won
No$2.0k @ 98.2¢
Netanyahu out by June 30?Won
No$1.9k @ 96.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?Lost
Yes$80 @ 8.0¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?Won
No$5.7k @ 94.6¢
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?Won
Yes$2.7k @ 91.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$470.7k	79.3¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$346.0k	60.2¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$159.8k	90.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$121.8k	82.4¢
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	No	$121.4k	87.0¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$90.2k	85.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$47.7k	93.9¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$47.3k	66.6¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$37.9k	47.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$37.1k	78.2¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Economy	No	$34.7k	78.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	No	$29.3k	88.7¢
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$25.2k	87.9¢
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Economy	No	$22.8k	84.9¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?	Economy	No	$19.9k	82.9¢
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	Economy	No	$17.9k	86.3¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$17.7k	88.5¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Tech	No	$14.8k	87.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$14.5k	94.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Business	Yes	$9.6k	83.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?	Tech	No	$8.7k	92.5¢
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$8.5k	82.0¢
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Economy	No	$8.1k	85.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	Business	Yes	$7.6k	76.0¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$7.5k	93.6¢
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$6.4k	49.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$6.3k	80.7¢
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	Economy	No	$5.0k	84.2¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$4.6k	91.6¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Politics	No	$4.5k	90.2¢

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$470.7k @ 79.3¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$346.0k @ 60.2¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Tech
No$159.8k @ 90.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Tech
No$121.8k @ 82.4¢
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
No$121.4k @ 87.0¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$90.2k @ 85.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
No$47.7k @ 93.9¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Tech
Yes$47.3k @ 66.6¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$37.9k @ 47.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Tech
Yes$37.1k @ 78.2¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Economy
No$34.7k @ 78.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
No$29.3k @ 88.7¢
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$25.2k @ 87.9¢
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Economy
No$22.8k @ 84.9¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?Economy
No$19.9k @ 82.9¢
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?Economy
No$17.9k @ 86.3¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
Yes$17.7k @ 88.5¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?Tech
No$14.8k @ 87.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?Tech
No$14.5k @ 94.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Business
Yes$9.6k @ 83.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?Tech
No$8.7k @ 92.5¢
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Economy
Yes$8.5k @ 82.0¢
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Economy
No$8.1k @ 85.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?Business
Yes$7.6k @ 76.0¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
No$7.5k @ 93.6¢
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Politics
Yes$6.4k @ 49.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Tech
Yes$6.3k @ 80.7¢
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?Economy
No$5.0k @ 84.2¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$4.6k @ 91.6¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?Politics
No$4.5k @ 90.2¢