← Smart money
0x178d…74ed
SharpEdge
+13.0pp
ROI
+52%
Win rate
58% @ 44.8¢
Brier
0.087
Resolved
45
Avg size
$305
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 60% (6/10) | +54% | 10 |
| Geopolitics | 0% (0/2) | -100% | 2 |
| Politics | 100% (1/1) | +1% | 1 |
| Economy | 100% (1/1) | +16% | 1 |
- Other10 bets
- Hit rate
- 60% (6/10)
- ROI
- +54%
- Geopolitics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/2)
- ROI
- -100%
- Politics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +1%
- Economy1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +16%
Track record
57% hit · 8/14| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in September? | No | $5 | 99.2¢ | Won |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | Yes | $80 | 9.0¢ | Lost |
| US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? | Yes | $760 | 19.0¢ | Won |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026? | No | $1 | 1.4¢ | Lost |
| US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? | Yes | $920 | 23.0¢ | Won |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | No | $11 | 16.0¢ | Lost |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | No | $460 | 7.0¢ | Lost |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | Yes | $8.8k | 85.2¢ | Won |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | No | $368 | 5.0¢ | Lost |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | Yes | $747 | 87.0¢ | Won |
| Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? | Yes | $1.3k | 81.8¢ | Won |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | No | $160 | 8.0¢ | Lost |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | Yes | $174 | 87.0¢ | Won |
| Will four or more people dissent the July Fed decision? | No | $17 | 86.0¢ | Won |
- No$5 @ 99.2¢
- Yes$80 @ 9.0¢
- Yes$760 @ 19.0¢
- No$1 @ 1.4¢
- Yes$920 @ 23.0¢
- No$11 @ 16.0¢
- No$460 @ 7.0¢
- Yes$8.8k @ 85.2¢
- No$368 @ 5.0¢
- Yes$747 @ 87.0¢
- Yes$1.3k @ 81.8¢
- No$160 @ 8.0¢
- Yes$174 @ 87.0¢
- No$17 @ 86.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
- No$25.1k @ 99.9¢
- No$530 @ 99.9¢
- Yes$500 @ 25.0¢
- No$160 @ 40.0¢
- No$82 @ 99.4¢
- No$77 @ 99.8¢
- No$49 @ 99.9¢
- No$49 @ 99.8¢
- No$44 @ 98.4¢
- Yes$25 @ 0.2¢
- No$25 @ 99.9¢
- No$20 @ 99.7¢
- No$5 @ 99.2¢