0xf0d5…c665

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics233 bets

  Hit rate

  77% (179/233)

  ROI

  -3%

• Other118 bets

  Hit rate

  58% (68/118)

  ROI

  -5%

• Science36 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (36/36)

  ROI

  +13%

• Geopolitics27 bets

  Hit rate

  89% (24/27)

  ROI

  +28%

• Tech26 bets

  Hit rate

  96% (25/26)

  ROI

  +6%

• Crypto13 bets

  Hit rate

  85% (11/13)

  ROI

  +163%

• Sports9 bets

  Hit rate

  56% (5/9)

  ROI

  -39%

• Culture6 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (4/6)

  ROI

  -83%

• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$789 @ 89.9¢
• Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on November 1?Won
  No$349 @ 99.0¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 30?Won
  Yes$698 @ 99.9¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 29?Won
  Yes$146 @ 99.9¢
• Will it rain in Seattle, WA on October 31?Won
  No$15 @ 99.9¢
• Will it rain in Washington, DC on October 31?Won
  No$15 @ 99.9¢
• Will it rain in Dallas, TX on October 31?Won
  No$15 @ 99.9¢
• Will it rain in New York, NY on October 31?Won
  No$15 @ 99.9¢
• Will it rain in New Orleans, LA on October 31?Won
  Yes$15 @ 99.9¢
• Will it rain in Miami, FL on October 31?Won
  Yes$15 @ 99.9¢
• Will Yashar win 20-21 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Won
  Yes$148 @ 99.3¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$2.7k @ 61.7¢
• Will Trump say "Visa" in October?Won
  No$10 @ 99.9¢
• Will Trump meet with Dario Amodei by October 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$78 @ 49.6¢
• Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 31?Won
  No$40 @ 99.9¢
• Will Trump say "Neurotic" in October?Won
  No$20 @ 99.9¢
• Will Trump say "Airbus" in October?Won
  No$10 @ 99.0¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?Won
  No$47 @ 93.9¢
• Will Trump issue an AI Safety Executive Order by October 31?Lost
  Yes$42 @ 6.5¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$273 @ 55.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$1.1k @ 72.4¢
• Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$272 @ 80.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$1.4k @ 91.0¢
• US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
  Yes$4.4k @ 86.0¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Won
  No$840 @ 84.0¢
• Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Won
  No$20 @ 99.7¢
• Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Won
  No$20 @ 99.9¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Won
  No$20 @ 99.7¢
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Won
  Yes$3.4k @ 84.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Won
  Yes$1.4k @ 89.7¢
• Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on October 22?Won
  Yes$974 @ 89.1¢
• Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 22?Won
  No$20 @ 99.9¢
• Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on October 22?Won
  No$3.3k @ 91.8¢
• Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$20 @ 99.9¢
• Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on October 18?Won
  No$20 @ 99.7¢
• Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on October 18?Won
  No$20 @ 99.9¢
• Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on October 18?Won
  No$20 @ 99.8¢
• Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on October 18?Won
  No$20 @ 99.5¢
• Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18?Won
  No$20 @ 98.8¢
• Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on October 18?Won
  No$20 @ 99.6¢
• Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on October 18?Won
  No$20 @ 99.7¢
• Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 11°C on October 18?Won
  No$20 @ 99.8¢
• Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18?Won
  Yes$791 @ 62.0¢
• Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 24?Won
  No$368 @ 98.6¢
• Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?Won
  No$1 @ 50.3¢
• Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?Lost
  Yes$2.3k @ 60.9¢
• Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31?Won
  Yes$40 @ 98.8¢
• Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?Won
  Yes$15 @ 98.9¢
• Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 22?Won
  No$1.1k @ 99.9¢
• Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 20?Won
  No$124 @ 98.3¢

Current positions

• Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  No$55.1k @ 91.6¢
• Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
  No$26.7k @ 86.8¢
• Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?Politics
  Yes$18.9k @ 78.6¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$16.4k @ 80.6¢
• Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
  No$11.0k @ 73.6¢
• Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?Culture
  No$7.4k @ 65.3¢
• Will Trump say "Burger" in October?Politics
  No$6.8k @ 86.3¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?Politics
  No$6.4k @ 79.2¢
• US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Politics
  Yes$6.2k @ 85.0¢
• US x Yemen ceasefire continues through November 30?Politics
  Yes$5.6k @ 77.9¢
• Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$4.3k @ 35.8¢
• Israeli Knesset election annulled?Politics
  No$4.1k @ 95.4¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
  Yes$3.7k @ 83.5¢
• Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$3.4k @ 91.9¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
  No$3.0k @ 18.5¢
• Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?Culture
  No$3.0k @ 91.9¢
• OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Tech
  No$2.7k @ 48.4¢
• Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
  No$2.6k @ 68.1¢
• Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Politics
  No$2.3k @ 71.0¢
• Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
  No$2.2k @ 14.3¢
• Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$2.1k @ 6.4¢
• Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$1.4k @ 46.0¢
• Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?Politics
  No$1.4k @ 96.7¢
• Will the Democratic Party win the CA-34 House seat?Politics
  Yes$1.2k @ 98.1¢
• US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?Politics
  No$1.2k @ 85.5¢
• Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
  No$1.1k @ 16.4¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
  No$1.0k @ 79.1¢
• Clavicular sentenced to prison by December 31, 2026?Culture
  No$991 @ 91.5¢
• Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
  No$930 @ 31.0¢
• Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$840 @ 84.0¢