0xe033…40a5

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xe033e9d4a0e8b30c417f3f7abcb029bc695940a5
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.8pp

ROI

+27%

Win rate

14% @ 10.4¢

Brier

0.041

Resolved

6368

Avg size

$93

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	11% (2/18)	+63%	18
Other	33% (5/15)	-48%	15
Economy	55% (6/11)	+172%	11

Politics18 bets
Hit rate
11% (2/18)
ROI
+63%
Other15 bets
Hit rate
33% (5/15)
ROI
-48%
Economy11 bets
Hit rate
55% (6/11)
ROI
+172%

Track record

30% hit · 13/44

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	$1.4k	35.6¢	Won
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$8.1k	3.1¢	Lost
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$136	55.0¢	Won
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	Yes	$347	55.1¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$9.3k	85.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$500	0.3¢	Lost
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$19	0.5¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$11.4k	0.5¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$5.9k	0.8¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	$3.1k	68.4¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$24.2k	75.6¢	Won
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	$75	21.4¢	Lost
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	$427	63.0¢	Lost
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	$5.1k	53.9¢	Won
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$22	13.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$21	3.5¢	Lost
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	$15	16.0¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	Yes	$1.8k	55.3¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$9.9k	41.9¢	Won
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$60	0.9¢	Lost
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	Yes	$11	7.0¢	Lost
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$18.8k	31.6¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$212.2k	39.6¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?	Yes	$331	18.9¢	Lost
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	Yes	$98	3.5¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$7.0k	3.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$76.7k	14.7¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$25.7k	2.3¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$19.4k	8.9¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1.2k	1.6¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1.9k	2.1¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	$7	6.0¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$33.3k	45.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$9.2k	0.4¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$4.7k	0.7¢	Lost
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting?	No	$151	0.4¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?	Yes	$166	10.6¢	Lost
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	$128	3.0¢	Lost
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	$708	5.4¢	Lost
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Yes	$10	4.2¢	Lost
Will the Fed Hike-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?	No	$29	90.5¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$14.8k	43.0¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	$4	13.0¢	Lost

Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?Won
No$1.4k @ 35.6¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$8.1k @ 3.1¢
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$136 @ 55.0¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Won
Yes$347 @ 55.1¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$9.3k @ 85.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$500 @ 0.3¢
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$19 @ 0.5¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$11.4k @ 0.5¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$5.9k @ 0.8¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Won
Yes$3.1k @ 68.4¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$24.2k @ 75.6¢
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
Yes$75 @ 21.4¢
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
No$427 @ 63.0¢
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?Won
No$5.1k @ 53.9¢
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$22 @ 13.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$21 @ 3.5¢
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
No$15 @ 16.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Won
Yes$1.8k @ 55.3¢
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$9.9k @ 41.9¢
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$60 @ 0.9¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?Lost
Yes$11 @ 7.0¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Won
Yes$18.8k @ 31.6¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$212.2k @ 39.6¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?Lost
Yes$331 @ 18.9¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Lost
Yes$98 @ 3.5¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$7.0k @ 3.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$76.7k @ 14.7¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$25.7k @ 2.3¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$19.4k @ 8.9¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 1.6¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$1.9k @ 2.1¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Lost
No$7 @ 6.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$33.3k @ 45.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$9.2k @ 0.4¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$4.7k @ 0.7¢
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting?Lost
No$151 @ 0.4¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?Lost
Yes$166 @ 10.6¢
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?Lost
Yes$128 @ 3.0¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Lost
Yes$708 @ 5.4¢
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Lost
Yes$10 @ 4.2¢
Will the Fed Hike-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?Won
No$29 @ 90.5¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$14.8k @ 43.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
No$4 @ 13.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$166.3k	64.7¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$22.4k	31.9¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$4.2k	47.9¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$729	74.5¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?	Politics	No	$692	49.3¢
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?	Politics	No	$534	91.6¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$467	19.9¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$404	71.6¢
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$342	74.0¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$286	6.1¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$273	20.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$222	24.3¢
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Economy	Yes	$116	26.0¢
Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?	Economy	Yes	$69	12.2¢
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Economy	Yes	$66	76.2¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$61	15.2¢
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?	Economy	Yes	$46	8.2¢
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$24	74.0¢
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$1	0.4¢

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$166.3k @ 64.7¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?Politics
Yes$22.4k @ 31.9¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?Politics
Yes$4.2k @ 47.9¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?Politics
Yes$729 @ 74.5¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?Politics
No$692 @ 49.3¢
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?Politics
No$534 @ 91.6¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$467 @ 19.9¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?Politics
Yes$404 @ 71.6¢
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?Politics
Yes$342 @ 74.0¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?Politics
Yes$286 @ 6.1¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?Politics
Yes$273 @ 20.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting?Politics
Yes$222 @ 24.3¢
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Economy
Yes$116 @ 26.0¢
Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?Economy
Yes$69 @ 12.2¢
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Economy
Yes$66 @ 76.2¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$61 @ 15.2¢
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?Economy
Yes$46 @ 8.2¢
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Economy
Yes$24 @ 74.0¢
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢