0xde09…dbde

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xde0937dda28d91a0e7835dea44fd1f3f269cdbde
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.4pp

ROI

+13%

Win rate

34% @ 29.3¢

Brier

0.143

Resolved

677

Avg size

$32

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	31% (15/49)	-16%	49
Geopolitics	22% (8/37)	+22%	37
Other	36% (10/28)	+33%	28
Sports	0% (0/4)	-100%	4

Politics49 bets
Hit rate
31% (15/49)
ROI
-16%
Geopolitics37 bets
Hit rate
22% (8/37)
ROI
+22%
Other28 bets
Hit rate
36% (10/28)
ROI
+33%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%

Track record

28% hit · 33/118

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?	No	$34	34.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$17	4.3¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?	Yes	$142	13.0¢	Lost
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-09-20?	No	$26	8.7¢	Lost
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30?	Yes	$9	5.4¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$62	5.3¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$18	6.0¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$11	0.9¢	Lost
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$290	16.9¢	Lost
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	$9	4.2¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	No	$604	54.3¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Yes	$16	11.7¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) win 50-55% of the party-list vote in the 2026 Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$11	26.5¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	No	$725	83.2¢	Won
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$198	21.0¢	Lost
Will Jared Kushner visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	No	$7	6.2¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?	Yes	$355	88.8¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$30	9.7¢	Lost
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	$103	51.2¢	Won
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	$5	10.0¢	Lost
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	Yes	$9	14.5¢	Lost
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	Yes	$133	58.9¢	Won
Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$53	7.2¢	Won
Will Iceland win on 2026-09-26?	Yes	$3	15.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$59	14.7¢	Lost
Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	No	$44	89.0¢	Won
Will Russia target Kyiv by August 26, 2026?	Yes	$4	8.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in September?	No	$67	14.7¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?	No	$51	9.7¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$75	11.6¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	Yes	$7	1.3¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?	Yes	$3	1.4¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$11	2.2¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$353	40.1¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$3	1.6¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	$5	1.8¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by September 30?	Yes	$18	6.6¢	Lost
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026?	Yes	$29	26.7¢	Lost
Trump renames AI by September 30?	No	$177	36.5¢	Lost
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	$120	41.3¢	Won
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$5	10.8¢	Lost
Will Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) finish second on the party-list vote in Saint Petersburg?	Yes	$72	50.7¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$20	5.6¢	Lost
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$53	26.3¢	Won
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$155	18.5¢	Lost
Georgia vs. Ukraine: O/U 0.5	Over	$4	18.3¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?	Yes	$192	46.9¢	Won
Will Russia enter Borova by September 30?	Yes	$17	5.8¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$4.3k	82.7¢	Won
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?	Yes	$3	1.5¢	Lost

Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?Lost
No$34 @ 34.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$17 @ 4.3¢
Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?Lost
Yes$142 @ 13.0¢
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-09-20?Lost
No$26 @ 8.7¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30?Lost
Yes$9 @ 5.4¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$62 @ 5.3¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$18 @ 6.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$11 @ 0.9¢
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$290 @ 16.9¢
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?Lost
No$9 @ 4.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?Won
No$604 @ 54.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?Lost
Yes$16 @ 11.7¢
Will United Russia (ER) win 50-55% of the party-list vote in the 2026 Russian State Duma election?Lost
Yes$11 @ 26.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?Won
No$725 @ 83.2¢
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Lost
Yes$198 @ 21.0¢
Will Jared Kushner visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$7 @ 6.2¢
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?Won
Yes$355 @ 88.8¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$30 @ 9.7¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Won
No$103 @ 51.2¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 10.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?Lost
Yes$9 @ 14.5¢
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?Won
Yes$133 @ 58.9¢
Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$53 @ 7.2¢
Will Iceland win on 2026-09-26?Lost
Yes$3 @ 15.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$59 @ 14.7¢
Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Won
No$44 @ 89.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv by August 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 8.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in September?Lost
No$67 @ 14.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?Lost
No$51 @ 9.7¢
Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$75 @ 11.6¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Lost
Yes$7 @ 1.3¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.4¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 2.2¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$353 @ 40.1¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Lost
No$5 @ 1.8¢
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by September 30?Lost
Yes$18 @ 6.6¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$29 @ 26.7¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Lost
No$177 @ 36.5¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Won
No$120 @ 41.3¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 10.8¢
Will Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) finish second on the party-list vote in Saint Petersburg?Lost
Yes$72 @ 50.7¢
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 5.6¢
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Won
Yes$53 @ 26.3¢
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$155 @ 18.5¢
Georgia vs. Ukraine: O/U 0.5Lost
Over$4 @ 18.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?Won
Yes$192 @ 46.9¢
Will Russia enter Borova by September 30?Lost
Yes$17 @ 5.8¢
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$4.3k @ 82.7¢
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$3.4k	85.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.2k	95.5¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1.6k	64.5¢
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$1.3k	93.2¢
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$706	43.6¢
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$581	64.6¢
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$479	42.2¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$439	48.8¢
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$369	46.1¢
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$338	22.0¢
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$321	26.4¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$320	64.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$314	69.8¢
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$257	68.4¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$251	86.1¢
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$226	48.8¢
Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$201	53.2¢
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$198	53.8¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$190	62.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$176	35.2¢
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$168	74.9¢
Will Russia capture Stavky by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$128	85.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?	Other	No	$119	51.7¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$114	63.5¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	No	$112	84.7¢
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$110	24.4¢
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$108	24.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$103	55.2¢
Trump meets with Putin by November 30?	Politics	Yes	$103	68.4¢
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$99	24.1¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$3.4k @ 85.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$2.2k @ 95.5¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$1.6k @ 64.5¢
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$1.3k @ 93.2¢
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$706 @ 43.6¢
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$581 @ 64.6¢
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?Geopolitics
No$479 @ 42.2¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$439 @ 48.8¢
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$369 @ 46.1¢
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$338 @ 22.0¢
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$321 @ 26.4¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$320 @ 64.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$314 @ 69.8¢
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$257 @ 68.4¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$251 @ 86.1¢
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$226 @ 48.8¢
Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$201 @ 53.2¢
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$198 @ 53.8¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?Geopolitics
No$190 @ 62.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
No$176 @ 35.2¢
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$168 @ 74.9¢
Will Russia capture Stavky by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$128 @ 85.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?Other
No$119 @ 51.7¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$114 @ 63.5¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
No$112 @ 84.7¢
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?Politics
Yes$110 @ 24.4¢
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$108 @ 24.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$103 @ 55.2¢
Trump meets with Putin by November 30?Politics
Yes$103 @ 68.4¢
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$99 @ 24.1¢