0xd3ec…6603

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd3ecb2aee0d65622da559ff356b00e8c2e626603
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+21.1pp

ROI

+29%

Win rate

90% @ 69.1¢

Brier

0.119

Resolved

225

Avg size

$404

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	56% (5/9)	+29%	9
Politics	50% (1/2)	-15%	2
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+57%	2
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other9 bets
Hit rate
56% (5/9)
ROI
+29%
Politics2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-15%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+57%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

57% hit · 8/14

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$5.6k	58.2¢	Won
Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?	Yes	$104	8.8¢	Lost
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?	No	$372	87.5¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	No	$2.3k	88.4¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$11.5k	60.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$5.8k	64.1¢	Lost
Will 20-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?	Yes	$57	6.2¢	Lost
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$2.0k	63.7¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$27.9k	73.2¢	Won
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$197	75.8¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	$20.5k	83.5¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?	No	$246	86.0¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	$203	61.0¢	Lost
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026?	Yes	$24	11.5¢	Lost

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$5.6k @ 58.2¢
Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?Lost
Yes$104 @ 8.8¢
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?Lost
No$372 @ 87.5¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Won
No$2.3k @ 88.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$11.5k @ 60.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$5.8k @ 64.1¢
Will 20-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?Lost
Yes$57 @ 6.2¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$2.0k @ 63.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$27.9k @ 73.2¢
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$197 @ 75.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Won
No$20.5k @ 83.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?Won
No$246 @ 86.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Lost
Yes$203 @ 61.0¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026?Lost
Yes$24 @ 11.5¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	—	No	$35.9k	87.5¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Politics	No	$9.8k	83.7¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	No	$9.0k	83.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	—	No	$7.8k	75.3¢
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	—	Yes	$3.7k	89.7¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$3.4k	86.0¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 6,000 in 2026?	Other	Yes	$403	24.3¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026?	Other	Yes	$371	26.0¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026?	Other	Yes	$200	58.4¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$100	52.4¢
Will there be between 34 and 36 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?	—	No	$97	84.2¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 18,000 in 2026?	Other	Yes	$80	16.0¢
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	Crypto	No	$67	90.0¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 8,000 in 2026?	Other	Yes	$40	31.0¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026?	Other	Yes	$24	11.5¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?—
No$35.9k @ 87.5¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Politics
No$9.8k @ 83.7¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
No$9.0k @ 83.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?—
No$7.8k @ 75.3¢
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?—
Yes$3.7k @ 89.7¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?—
No$3.4k @ 86.0¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 6,000 in 2026?Other
Yes$403 @ 24.3¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026?Other
Yes$371 @ 26.0¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026?Other
Yes$200 @ 58.4¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$100 @ 52.4¢
Will there be between 34 and 36 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?—
No$97 @ 84.2¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 18,000 in 2026?Other
Yes$80 @ 16.0¢
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81Crypto
No$67 @ 90.0¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 8,000 in 2026?Other
Yes$40 @ 31.0¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026?Other
Yes$24 @ 11.5¢