0xd3ec…6603

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd3ecb2aee0d65622da559ff356b00e8c2e626603
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+15.6pp

ROI

+26%

Win rate

81% @ 65.6¢

Brier

0.126

Resolved

451

Avg size

$628

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	61% (22/36)	+31%	36
Politics	67% (22/33)	+13%	33
Geopolitics	79% (11/14)	+48%	14
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other36 bets
Hit rate
61% (22/36)
ROI
+31%
Politics33 bets
Hit rate
67% (22/33)
ROI
+13%
Geopolitics14 bets
Hit rate
79% (11/14)
ROI
+48%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

65% hit · 55/85

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?	No	$1.1k	79.7¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	$3.0k	86.0¢	Won
Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	$83	97.0¢	Won
Will there be at least 4800 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?	No	$43	49.6¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	$5.3k	74.0¢	Won
Will at least 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	No	$126	94.0¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	$8.7k	83.0¢	Won
Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	No	$113	92.5¢	Won
Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?	Yes	$280	46.3¢	Won
Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?	No	$255	74.0¢	Won
Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?	No	$67	56.8¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$5.6k	58.2¢	Won
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$849	48.4¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?	No	$500	80.0¢	Won
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	No	$1.7k	74.8¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$3.3k	72.7¢	Lost
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?	Yes	$21	18.9¢	Won
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?	Yes	$217	15.1¢	Lost
Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?	Yes	$104	8.8¢	Lost
Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	Yes	$1.3k	32.3¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	No	$100	84.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	Yes	$300	4.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	$1.8k	89.0¢	Won
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?	No	$372	87.5¢	Lost
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 21-September 27?	No	$40	40.0¢	Lost
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?	Yes	$50	8.0¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	No	$2.3k	88.4¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$11.5k	60.5¢	Won
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?	No	$2.6k	75.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$5.8k	64.1¢	Lost
Will 20-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?	Yes	$57	6.2¢	Lost
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?	No	$3.9k	73.7¢	Won
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?	Yes	$400	39.5¢	Lost
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?	No	$850	82.3¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?	Yes	$480	48.2¢	Lost
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?	Yes	$254	23.8¢	Lost
Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?	Yes	$21	13.6¢	Lost
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$2.0k	63.7¢	Won
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?	Yes	$90	18.9¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$27.9k	73.2¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?	No	$300	89.5¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	$203	61.0¢	Lost
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	$22	10.0¢	Lost
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?	No	$95	89.9¢	Won
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?	No	$50	63.0¢	Won
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?	Yes	$688	50.9¢	Lost
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	No	$57	29.7¢	Lost
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?	Yes	$5.2k	79.8¢	Won
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?	Yes	$165	31.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	$20.0k	78.3¢	Lost

Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?Won
No$1.1k @ 79.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Won
No$3.0k @ 86.0¢
Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?Won
No$83 @ 97.0¢
Will there be at least 4800 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$43 @ 49.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Won
No$5.3k @ 74.0¢
Will at least 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?Won
No$126 @ 94.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Won
No$8.7k @ 83.0¢
Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?Won
No$113 @ 92.5¢
Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?Won
Yes$280 @ 46.3¢
Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?Won
No$255 @ 74.0¢
Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?Won
No$67 @ 56.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$5.6k @ 58.2¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$849 @ 48.4¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?Won
No$500 @ 80.0¢
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Won
No$1.7k @ 74.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$3.3k @ 72.7¢
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?Won
Yes$21 @ 18.9¢
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?Lost
Yes$217 @ 15.1¢
Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?Lost
Yes$104 @ 8.8¢
Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 32.3¢
US forces enter Iran by March 14?Won
No$100 @ 84.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 14?Lost
Yes$300 @ 4.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Won
No$1.8k @ 89.0¢
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?Lost
No$372 @ 87.5¢
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 21-September 27?Lost
No$40 @ 40.0¢
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?Lost
Yes$50 @ 8.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Won
No$2.3k @ 88.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$11.5k @ 60.5¢
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?Won
No$2.6k @ 75.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$5.8k @ 64.1¢
Will 20-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?Lost
Yes$57 @ 6.2¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?Won
No$3.9k @ 73.7¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?Lost
Yes$400 @ 39.5¢
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?Won
No$850 @ 82.3¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?Lost
Yes$480 @ 48.2¢
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?Lost
Yes$254 @ 23.8¢
Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?Lost
Yes$21 @ 13.6¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$2.0k @ 63.7¢
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?Lost
Yes$90 @ 18.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$27.9k @ 73.2¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?Won
No$300 @ 89.5¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Lost
Yes$203 @ 61.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Lost
Yes$22 @ 10.0¢
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?Won
No$95 @ 89.9¢
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$50 @ 63.0¢
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?Lost
Yes$688 @ 50.9¢
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?Lost
No$57 @ 29.7¢
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?Won
Yes$5.2k @ 79.8¢
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?Lost
Yes$165 @ 31.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$20.0k @ 78.3¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$18.5k	80.2¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	No	$10.6k	79.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Politics	No	$10.4k	85.3¢
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Politics	Yes	$8.2k	86.6¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$7.8k	63.7¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$6.5k	93.0¢
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?	Politics	No	$6.3k	86.9¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$6.1k	90.5¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$5.6k	92.3¢
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Politics	No	$4.1k	85.0¢
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$3.7k	76.6¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Politics	No	$3.4k	90.2¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$3.2k	92.0¢
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$3.0k	78.2¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2.1k	58.8¢
Next Israeli government formed by November 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.7k	85.4¢
0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$1.6k	85.4¢
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$1.4k	80.6¢
Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$1.3k	76.0¢
Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	85.0¢
Will the US grant Flávio Bolsonaro political asylum in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.1k	49.2¢
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$1.1k	93.6¢
Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1.0k	63.5¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$948	94.8¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$906	71.9¢
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$874	11.0¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	No	$762	95.5¢
Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote?	Politics	Yes	$717	45.3¢
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$660	88.0¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$582	82.8¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$18.5k @ 80.2¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
No$10.6k @ 79.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
No$10.4k @ 85.3¢
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?Politics
Yes$8.2k @ 86.6¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$7.8k @ 63.7¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$6.5k @ 93.0¢
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?Politics
No$6.3k @ 86.9¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$6.1k @ 90.5¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$5.6k @ 92.3¢
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Politics
No$4.1k @ 85.0¢
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$3.7k @ 76.6¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Politics
No$3.4k @ 90.2¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$3.2k @ 92.0¢
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?Geopolitics
No$3.0k @ 78.2¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$2.1k @ 58.8¢
Next Israeli government formed by November 30, 2026?Politics
No$1.7k @ 85.4¢
0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by December 31?Geopolitics
No$1.6k @ 85.4¢
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$1.4k @ 80.6¢
Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?Geopolitics
No$1.3k @ 76.0¢
Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 85.0¢
Will the US grant Flávio Bolsonaro political asylum in 2026?Politics
No$1.1k @ 49.2¢
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$1.1k @ 93.6¢
Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$1.0k @ 63.5¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$948 @ 94.8¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$906 @ 71.9¢
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$874 @ 11.0¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
No$762 @ 95.5¢
Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote?Politics
Yes$717 @ 45.3¢
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$660 @ 88.0¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
No$582 @ 82.8¢