← Smart money
0xd3ec…6603
SharpEdge
+18.7pp
ROI
+27%
Win rate
88% @ 69.6¢
Brier
0.110
Resolved
197
Avg size
$388
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 50% (4/8) | +29% | 8 |
| Politics | 50% (1/2) | -15% | 2 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (2/2) | +57% | 2 |
| Tech | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Other8 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (4/8)
- ROI
- +29%
- Politics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- -15%
- Geopolitics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (2/2)
- ROI
- +57%
- Tech1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
54% hit · 7/13| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | No | $5.6k | 58.2¢ | Won |
| Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19? | Yes | $104 | 8.8¢ | Lost |
| Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19? | No | $372 | 87.5¢ | Lost |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | $2.3k | 88.4¢ | Won |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | $11.5k | 60.5¢ | Won |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | $5.8k | 64.1¢ | Lost |
| Will 20-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19? | Yes | $57 | 6.2¢ | Lost |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | No | $2.0k | 63.7¢ | Won |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | $27.9k | 73.2¢ | Won |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | Yes | $203 | 61.0¢ | Lost |
| Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026? | Yes | $24 | 11.5¢ | Lost |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | No | $197 | 75.8¢ | Won |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | No | $20.5k | 83.5¢ | Won |
- No$5.6k @ 58.2¢
- Yes$104 @ 8.8¢
- No$372 @ 87.5¢
- No$2.3k @ 88.4¢
- No$11.5k @ 60.5¢
- No$5.8k @ 64.1¢
- Yes$57 @ 6.2¢
- No$2.0k @ 63.7¢
- No$27.9k @ 73.2¢
- Yes$203 @ 61.0¢
- Yes$24 @ 11.5¢
- No$197 @ 75.8¢
- No$20.5k @ 83.5¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
- No$19.8k @ 49.4¢
- No$16.3k @ 58.2¢
- No$15.7k @ 65.9¢
- Yes$5.9k @ 83.2¢
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$525 @ 45.8¢
- Yes$403 @ 24.3¢
- Yes$371 @ 26.0¢
- Yes$295 @ 47.7¢
- Yes$200 @ 58.4¢
- Yes$100 @ 52.4¢
- Yes$80 @ 16.0¢
- Yes$59 @ 41.9¢
- Yes$40 @ 31.0¢
- Yes$24 @ 11.5¢