0xd3ec…6603

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd3ecb2aee0d65622da559ff356b00e8c2e626603
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+21.1pp

ROI

+29%

Win rate

90% @ 69.1¢

Brier

0.119

Resolved

225

Avg size

$404

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	62% (8/13)	+29%	13
Politics	55% (6/11)	+51%	11
Geopolitics	100% (3/3)	+54%	3
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other13 bets
Hit rate
62% (8/13)
ROI
+29%
Politics11 bets
Hit rate
55% (6/11)
ROI
+51%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+54%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

61% hit · 17/28

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$7.3k	84.3¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	$303	95.4¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$2.6k	78.0¢	Won
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?	No	$161	30.6¢	Won
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?	Yes	$276	90.3¢	Lost
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	$754	58.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1000	50.4¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$15.7k	65.9¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	No	$16.3k	58.2¢	Won
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$525	45.8¢	Lost
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	$4.9k	81.5¢	Won
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	Yes	$295	47.7¢	Lost
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	Yes	$59	41.9¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	$19.8k	49.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$5.6k	58.2¢	Won
Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?	Yes	$104	8.8¢	Lost
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?	No	$372	87.5¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	No	$2.3k	88.4¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$11.5k	60.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$5.8k	64.1¢	Lost
Will 20-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?	Yes	$57	6.2¢	Lost
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$2.0k	63.7¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$27.9k	73.2¢	Won
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$197	75.8¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	$20.5k	83.5¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?	No	$246	86.0¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	$203	61.0¢	Lost
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026?	Yes	$24	11.5¢	Lost

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
No$7.3k @ 84.3¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Won
No$303 @ 95.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$2.6k @ 78.0¢
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?Won
No$161 @ 30.6¢
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?Lost
Yes$276 @ 90.3¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$754 @ 58.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1000 @ 50.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$15.7k @ 65.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Won
No$16.3k @ 58.2¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$525 @ 45.8¢
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
Yes$4.9k @ 81.5¢
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?Lost
Yes$295 @ 47.7¢
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?Lost
Yes$59 @ 41.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Won
No$19.8k @ 49.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$5.6k @ 58.2¢
Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?Lost
Yes$104 @ 8.8¢
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?Lost
No$372 @ 87.5¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Won
No$2.3k @ 88.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$11.5k @ 60.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$5.8k @ 64.1¢
Will 20-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?Lost
Yes$57 @ 6.2¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$2.0k @ 63.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$27.9k @ 73.2¢
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$197 @ 75.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Won
No$20.5k @ 83.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?Won
No$246 @ 86.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Lost
Yes$203 @ 61.0¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026?Lost
Yes$24 @ 11.5¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	No	$16.3k	87.5¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Politics	No	$13.2k	84.7¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	No	$10.6k	79.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	—	No	$6.3k	85.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	—	No	$6.1k	90.5¢
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?	—	No	$5.3k	87.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	—	No	$4.5k	92.6¢
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$3.7k	76.6¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$3.4k	86.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	—	No	$3.1k	84.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$2.3k	81.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	—	No	$1.8k	82.8¢
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$1.4k	80.6¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?	—	No	$690	69.0¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 6,000 in 2026?	Other	Yes	$403	24.3¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026?	Other	Yes	$371	26.0¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026?	Other	Yes	$200	58.4¢
Will C3.ai announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Crypto	No	$192	91.0¢
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$168	16.0¢
Will Lovable announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Crypto	No	$128	95.2¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$100	52.4¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 18,000 in 2026?	Other	Yes	$80	16.0¢
Will Lucid announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Crypto	No	$72	89.7¢
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	Crypto	No	$67	90.0¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 8,000 in 2026?	Other	Yes	$40	31.0¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026?	Other	Yes	$24	11.5¢

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
No$16.3k @ 87.5¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Politics
No$13.2k @ 84.7¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
No$10.6k @ 79.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?—
No$6.3k @ 85.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?—
No$6.1k @ 90.5¢
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?—
No$5.3k @ 87.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?—
No$4.5k @ 92.6¢
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$3.7k @ 76.6¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?—
No$3.4k @ 86.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?—
No$3.1k @ 84.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$2.3k @ 81.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?—
No$1.8k @ 82.8¢
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$1.4k @ 80.6¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?—
No$690 @ 69.0¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 6,000 in 2026?Other
Yes$403 @ 24.3¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026?Other
Yes$371 @ 26.0¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026?Other
Yes$200 @ 58.4¢
Will C3.ai announce bankruptcy before 2027?Crypto
No$192 @ 91.0¢
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$168 @ 16.0¢
Will Lovable announce bankruptcy before 2027?Crypto
No$128 @ 95.2¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$100 @ 52.4¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 18,000 in 2026?Other
Yes$80 @ 16.0¢
Will Lucid announce bankruptcy before 2027?Crypto
No$72 @ 89.7¢
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81Crypto
No$67 @ 90.0¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 8,000 in 2026?Other
Yes$40 @ 31.0¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026?Other
Yes$24 @ 11.5¢