0xc3db…0f98

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc3db6a07351313cc684759dee1722d2bb1e90f98
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.5pp

ROI

+34%

Win rate

25% @ 22.7¢

Brier

0.127

Resolved

1602

Avg size

$267

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	34% (51/152)	+40%	152
Sports	20% (8/40)	+87%	40
Politics	30% (10/33)	+59%	33
Geopolitics	42% (14/33)	-12%	33

Other152 bets
Hit rate
34% (51/152)
ROI
+40%
Sports40 bets
Hit rate
20% (8/40)
ROI
+87%
Politics33 bets
Hit rate
30% (10/33)
ROI
+59%
Geopolitics33 bets
Hit rate
42% (14/33)
ROI
-12%

Track record

32% hit · 83/258

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?	No	$191	66.9¢	Won
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Austria?	Yes	$388	11.4¢	Won
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20?	Yes	$6	0.9¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	No	$808	9.8¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	Yes	$5.5k	26.7¢	Won
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	$44	3.8¢	Lost
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?	Yes	$533	12.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$2.2k	39.8¢	Won
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 England?	Yes	$236	5.3¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	Yes	$187	5.0¢	Lost
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$303	67.0¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?	Yes	$1.4k	11.9¢	Lost
France leading at halftime?	Yes	$1.4k	59.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$3.5k	10.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	$2.0k	24.6¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by July 31?	Yes	$1.8k	4.6¢	Lost
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Algeria?	Yes	$444	10.0¢	Won
Will England win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	$694	27.8¢	Lost
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$21	3.7¢	Lost
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Ecuador?	Yes	$278	25.0¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$10.7k	63.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$4.5k	33.0¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$1.5k	11.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	No	$4.6k	62.0¢	Won
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	No	$80	16.0¢	Lost
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	No	$400	12.0¢	Lost
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	Yes	$2.4k	83.4¢	Won
Switzerland vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime?	Yes	$400	20.0¢	Lost
Spread: France (-1.5)	France	$3.1k	40.0¢	Lost
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Yes	$26	8.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$3.2k	80.0¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	No	$1.2k	89.0¢	Won
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Cabo Verde?	Yes	$249	6.5¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$1.1k	8.7¢	Lost
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5	Over	$102	36.0¢	Lost
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	Over	$203	51.0¢	Lost
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$133	28.0¢	Won
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	Yes	$324	7.9¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	No	$2.9k	12.5¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	Yes	$10.5k	63.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	No	$2.1k	85.9¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	Yes	$446	15.8¢	Lost
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	$10	4.2¢	Lost
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	$426	46.8¢	Won
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Yes	$174	12.6¢	Lost
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	$198	10.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	No	$224	28.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Spain?	Yes	$390	13.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?	Yes	$889	8.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$14.4k	79.5¢	Won

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?Won
No$191 @ 66.9¢
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Austria?Won
Yes$388 @ 11.4¢
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.9¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Lost
No$808 @ 9.8¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Won
Yes$5.5k @ 26.7¢
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?Lost
Yes$44 @ 3.8¢
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?Won
Yes$533 @ 12.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$2.2k @ 39.8¢
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 England?Lost
Yes$236 @ 5.3¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Lost
Yes$187 @ 5.0¢
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?Lost
Yes$303 @ 67.0¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 11.9¢
France leading at halftime?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 59.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$3.5k @ 10.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?Lost
Yes$2.0k @ 24.6¢
Iran leadership change by July 31?Lost
Yes$1.8k @ 4.6¢
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Algeria?Won
Yes$444 @ 10.0¢
Will England win on 2026-07-11?Lost
Yes$694 @ 27.8¢
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$21 @ 3.7¢
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Ecuador?Lost
Yes$278 @ 25.0¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$10.7k @ 63.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$4.5k @ 33.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$1.5k @ 11.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Won
No$4.6k @ 62.0¢
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?Lost
No$80 @ 16.0¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Lost
No$400 @ 12.0¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Won
Yes$2.4k @ 83.4¢
Switzerland vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime?Lost
Yes$400 @ 20.0¢
Spread: France (-1.5)Lost
France$3.1k @ 40.0¢
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?Lost
Yes$26 @ 8.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
No$3.2k @ 80.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Won
No$1.2k @ 89.0¢
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Cabo Verde?Lost
Yes$249 @ 6.5¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 8.7¢
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5Lost
Over$102 @ 36.0¢
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5Lost
Over$203 @ 51.0¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Won
Yes$133 @ 28.0¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$324 @ 7.9¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Lost
No$2.9k @ 12.5¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Won
Yes$10.5k @ 63.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Won
No$2.1k @ 85.9¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
Yes$446 @ 15.8¢
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?Lost
Yes$10 @ 4.2¢
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Won
Yes$426 @ 46.8¢
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?Lost
Yes$174 @ 12.6¢
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?Won
Yes$198 @ 10.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Lost
No$224 @ 28.0¢
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Spain?Lost
Yes$390 @ 13.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?Lost
Yes$889 @ 8.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$14.4k @ 79.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	No	$13.1k	88.5¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$10.7k	66.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	No	$10.3k	47.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$6.8k	13.6¢
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	No	$5.4k	74.6¢
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	No	$4.4k	80.0¢
Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	No	$4.2k	96.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$3.4k	34.9¢
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?	Geopolitics	No	$2.4k	98.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$2.4k	26.3¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$2.3k	5.6¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$2.2k	20.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Politics	No	$2.1k	45.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$1.7k	70.7¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.5k	21.7¢
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1.4k	33.4¢
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	40.0¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.1k	80.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	7.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$933	42.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$900	16.0¢
Iran leadership change by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$677	6.0¢
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$573	19.5¢
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$401	81.9¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$349	95.5¢
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by September 23?	Geopolitics	No	$326	98.0¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	Politics	No	$316	37.0¢
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Sports	Yes	$272	4.9¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$266	51.0¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$188	20.0¢

Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
No$13.1k @ 88.5¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$10.7k @ 66.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
No$10.3k @ 47.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Geopolitics
No$6.8k @ 13.6¢
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
No$5.4k @ 74.6¢
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
No$4.4k @ 80.0¢
Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
No$4.2k @ 96.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
No$3.4k @ 34.9¢
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?Geopolitics
No$2.4k @ 98.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
No$2.4k @ 26.3¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?Politics
Yes$2.3k @ 5.6¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
Yes$2.2k @ 20.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Politics
No$2.1k @ 45.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$1.7k @ 70.7¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
Yes$1.5k @ 21.7¢
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?Geopolitics
Yes$1.4k @ 33.4¢
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 40.0¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$1.1k @ 80.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 7.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
Yes$933 @ 42.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$900 @ 16.0¢
Iran leadership change by October 31?Politics
Yes$677 @ 6.0¢
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
Yes$573 @ 19.5¢
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by September 30?Geopolitics
No$401 @ 81.9¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$349 @ 95.5¢
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by September 23?Geopolitics
No$326 @ 98.0¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?Politics
No$316 @ 37.0¢
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
Yes$272 @ 4.9¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Politics
Yes$266 @ 51.0¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Politics
Yes$188 @ 20.0¢