0xbd04…fbb0

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xbd0477e08d82d35a855ff19644a88a9213d8fbb0
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.4pp

ROI

+5%

Win rate

41% @ 34.6¢

Brier

0.178

Resolved

1672

Avg size

$612

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	39% (47/120)	+9%	120
Politics	34% (37/109)	+3%	109
Geopolitics	33% (10/30)	-11%	30
Sports	33% (1/3)	+259%	3
Tech	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+126%	2

Other120 bets
Hit rate
39% (47/120)
ROI
+9%
Politics109 bets
Hit rate
34% (37/109)
ROI
+3%
Geopolitics30 bets
Hit rate
33% (10/30)
ROI
-11%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+259%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+126%

Track record

36% hit · 96/266

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	No	$534	49.5¢	Won
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	Yes	$76	7.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$758	4.8¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	No	$1.1k	23.9¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$262	9.5¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$2.1k	14.1¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	No	$1.5k	82.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	No	$2.1k	30.3¢	Lost
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	$1.3k	1.4¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$321	3.8¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?	No	$156	25.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	No	$291	16.1¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	Yes	$1.4k	26.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$4.9k	57.6¢	Won
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	$132	3.2¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$990	5.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$9.1k	25.2¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$1.4k	66.8¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	$1.8k	25.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$163	40.8¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$41	0.4¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$224	1.4¢	Lost
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	18.9¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	$445	81.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	No	$250	34.5¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	Yes	$306	64.1¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$970	10.5¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$115	14.4¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	$3.2k	5.1¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?	Yes	$105	1.2¢	Lost
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	$197	28.8¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	Yes	$158	58.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	No	$508	2.8¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$4.6k	70.4¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?	No	$302	7.3¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	No	$2.1k	53.9¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$158	10.9¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$2.5k	60.9¢	Won
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?	Yes	$83	9.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Toyota" during Michigan remarks?	No	$787	25.9¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$780	21.5¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?	Yes	$144	13.3¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$4.0k	42.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$3.8k	33.2¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	$6.0k	3.2¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	$8.2k	34.1¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$269	55.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?	No	$755	18.9¢	Lost
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 15, 2026?	No	$96	5.3¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	6.9¢	Lost

Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Won
No$534 @ 49.5¢
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Lost
Yes$76 @ 7.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$758 @ 4.8¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$1.1k @ 23.9¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$262 @ 9.5¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 14.1¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Won
No$1.5k @ 82.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$2.1k @ 30.3¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 1.4¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$321 @ 3.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?Lost
No$156 @ 25.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
No$291 @ 16.1¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 26.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$4.9k @ 57.6¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Lost
Yes$132 @ 3.2¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$990 @ 5.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$9.1k @ 25.2¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$1.4k @ 66.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Lost
No$1.8k @ 25.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$163 @ 40.8¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$41 @ 0.4¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$224 @ 1.4¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 18.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
Yes$445 @ 81.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Lost
No$250 @ 34.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Won
Yes$306 @ 64.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Lost
No$970 @ 10.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$115 @ 14.4¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Lost
Yes$3.2k @ 5.1¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?Lost
Yes$105 @ 1.2¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Won
No$197 @ 28.8¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Lost
Yes$158 @ 58.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Lost
No$508 @ 2.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$4.6k @ 70.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?Lost
No$302 @ 7.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Won
No$2.1k @ 53.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$158 @ 10.9¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$2.5k @ 60.9¢
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?Lost
Yes$83 @ 9.5¢
Will Trump say "Toyota" during Michigan remarks?Lost
No$787 @ 25.9¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$780 @ 21.5¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?Lost
Yes$144 @ 13.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$4.0k @ 42.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.8k @ 33.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?Lost
Yes$6.0k @ 3.2¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$8.2k @ 34.1¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$269 @ 55.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?Lost
No$755 @ 18.9¢
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$96 @ 5.3¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 6.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	No	$14.1k	34.8¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	No	$7.0k	67.1¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$6.8k	56.1¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$5.2k	13.2¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$4.3k	55.9¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$4.3k	11.3¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	—	No	$3.6k	45.4¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	—	No	$3.3k	41.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2.3k	15.5¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.5k	25.2¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.4k	28.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$909	17.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	—	Yes	$818	24.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$744	37.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	—	No	$605	8.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$454	57.6¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$362	36.2¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$303	14.3¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$244	46.9¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$212	18.0¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$131	6.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$95	11.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$84	34.0¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$46	63.9¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$45	12.5¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$34	31.3¢

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
No$14.1k @ 34.8¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
No$7.0k @ 67.1¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$6.8k @ 56.1¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$5.2k @ 13.2¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$4.3k @ 55.9¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
Yes$4.3k @ 11.3¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?—
No$3.6k @ 45.4¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?—
No$3.3k @ 41.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$2.3k @ 15.5¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
Yes$1.5k @ 25.2¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
Yes$1.4k @ 28.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?—
No$909 @ 17.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?—
Yes$818 @ 24.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$744 @ 37.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?—
No$605 @ 8.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?—
No$454 @ 57.6¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?—
Yes$362 @ 36.2¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$303 @ 14.3¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$244 @ 46.9¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
Yes$212 @ 18.0¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$131 @ 6.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$95 @ 11.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$84 @ 34.0¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?Politics
Yes$46 @ 63.9¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Politics
Yes$45 @ 12.5¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$34 @ 31.3¢