0xbd04…fbb0

Specialization by sphere

• Politics28 bets

  Hit rate

  21% (6/28)

  ROI

  +47%

• Other3 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/3)

  ROI

  -100%

• Geopolitics3 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/3)

  ROI

  -100%

• Crypto2 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (1/2)

  ROI

  +126%

• Tech1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Lost
  Yes$1.3k @ 1.5¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$6.8k @ 11.1¢
• Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?Lost
  No$520 @ 1.7¢
• Iran coup attempt by June 30?Lost
  Yes$132 @ 3.2¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
  Yes$990 @ 5.5¢
• Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?Lost
  Yes$231 @ 14.6¢
• Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
  No$7.0k @ 81.8¢
• Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$6.3k @ 19.4¢
• Iran leadership change by May 31?Lost
  Yes$155 @ 3.9¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$2.7k @ 44.1¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$12 @ 0.2¢
• Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?Lost
  Yes$83 @ 9.5¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
  Yes$780 @ 21.5¢
• Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 15, 2026?Lost
  No$96 @ 5.3¢
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1.3k @ 6.9¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?Lost
  No$352 @ 1.6¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?Won
  Yes$44 @ 52.9¢
• Iran closes its airspace by July 15?Lost
  No$335 @ 31.3¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$19.8k @ 31.4¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$4.2k @ 27.7¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$27.6k @ 30.2¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$16.4k @ 21.0¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15?Lost
  Yes$136 @ 1.0¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Lost
  No$16.5k @ 22.6¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
  Yes$34.8k @ 32.4¢
• Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
  No$65 @ 0.8¢
• Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$2.9k @ 11.3¢
• Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
  No$4.5k @ 28.9¢
• Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
  Yes$4.3k @ 62.4¢
• Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$21 @ 2.1¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026?Lost
  Yes$53 @ 1.0¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 27?Lost
  Yes$1.0k @ 2.3¢
• Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?Lost
  No$1.2k @ 2.7¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 21, 2026?Lost
  No$96 @ 1.0¢
• Israel closes its airspace by June 11?Lost
  Yes$364 @ 11.9¢
• Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?Lost
  No$7 @ 0.3¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?Lost
  Yes$4 @ 0.2¢

Current positions

• Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$21.5k @ 9.2¢
• US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
  Yes$6.8k @ 56.1¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  Yes$5.3k @ 16.9¢
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?—
  No$4.1k @ 75.0¢
• Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Politics
  Yes$4.0k @ 10.6¢
• Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$3.9k @ 40.3¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Politics
  No$1.7k @ 36.9¢
• US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
  Yes$1.4k @ 28.7¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Politics
  No$1.3k @ 49.8¢
• Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Geopolitics
  Yes$1.3k @ 1.5¢
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$1.3k @ 6.9¢
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$1.2k @ 31.3¢
• US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Politics
  Yes$1.2k @ 8.3¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics
  No$1.1k @ 26.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
  Yes$1.1k @ 29.7¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Politics
  Yes$990 @ 5.5¢
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$971 @ 19.0¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics
  Yes$780 @ 21.5¢
• Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Politics
  Yes$594 @ 70.0¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?Geopolitics
  Yes$496 @ 14.8¢
• Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Politics
  No$381 @ 61.1¢
• Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?Politics
  Yes$371 @ 74.2¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Geopolitics
  No$359 @ 85.4¢
• Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Politics
  Yes$313 @ 32.6¢
• Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Politics
  Yes$262 @ 28.0¢
• Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech
  Yes$251 @ 16.7¢
• Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?Geopolitics
  Yes$231 @ 14.6¢
• Iran coup attempt by June 30?Politics
  Yes$132 @ 3.2¢
• Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
  Yes$131 @ 6.6¢
• Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$110 @ 1.2¢