0xb5c4…cb3b

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics104 bets

  Hit rate

  68% (71/104)

  ROI

  +1%

• Other81 bets

  Hit rate

  54% (44/81)

  ROI

  +18%

• Tech28 bets

  Hit rate

  68% (19/28)

  ROI

  -8%

• Geopolitics22 bets

  Hit rate

  77% (17/22)

  ROI

  +13%

• Sports21 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (14/21)

  ROI

  -21%

• Culture15 bets

  Hit rate

  73% (11/15)

  ROI

  -14%

• Crypto4 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (4/4)

  ROI

  +89%

• Business4 bets

  Hit rate

  75% (3/4)

  ROI

  +1%

• NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$40 @ 88.4¢
• Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?Won
  No$7 @ 95.0¢
• Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?Won
  No$2 @ 91.0¢
• Iran leadership change by October 31?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 2.9¢
• Will Trump issue an AI Safety Executive Order by October 31?Won
  No$2 @ 95.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$15 @ 65.0¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$3 @ 68.2¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$9 @ 59.4¢
• Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Won
  Yes$18 @ 64.6¢
• Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in October?Won
  No$3 @ 99.5¢
• Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?Won
  No$4 @ 96.0¢
• Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?Lost
  No$2 @ 79.0¢
• Republican House odds dip to 7% by October 31?Won
  Yes$1 @ 59.0¢
• Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
  Yes$12 @ 6.6¢
• Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
  Yes$62 @ 15.2¢
• Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
  No$11 @ 96.7¢
• Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
  No$199 @ 89.6¢
• Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
  Yes$6 @ 98.5¢
• Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
  No$5 @ 94.8¢
• Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
  Yes$2 @ 99.1¢
• Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
  No$2 @ 94.0¢
• Will Michael Olise finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
  No$6 @ 96.0¢
• Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
  Yes$6 @ 97.7¢
• Will Alexia Putellas win the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or?Won
  Yes$13 @ 93.8¢
• Will Vitinha finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
  No$4 @ 97.2¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$4 @ 62.0¢
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
  No$33 @ 62.8¢
• Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?Won
  No$4 @ 93.0¢
• Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?Won
  No$5 @ 93.4¢
• Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?Lost
  No$0 @ 16.6¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Won
  No$8 @ 86.0¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?Won
  No$4 @ 99.4¢
• Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$2 @ 98.8¢
• Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Lost
  No$1 @ 20.0¢
• Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?Lost
  No$2 @ 47.0¢
• Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?Won
  Yes$7 @ 62.3¢
• Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Lost
  No$29 @ 17.5¢
• Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
  No$8 @ 66.0¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 16.0¢
• Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
  No$4 @ 82.8¢
• Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?Won
  No$111 @ 85.4¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$747 @ 21.5¢
• Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
  No$116 @ 55.3¢
• Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Lost
  No$41 @ 37.5¢
• Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 60.0¢
• Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
  No$117 @ 70.4¢
• Over $40M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Won
  No$4 @ 84.8¢
• Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?Lost
  No$14 @ 24.7¢
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Won
  No$4 @ 83.0¢
• Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
  No$195 @ 39.1¢

Current positions

• Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
  No$107 @ 70.7¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$61 @ 59.7¢
• Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?Politics
  No$58 @ 72.3¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$46 @ 84.9¢
• US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$28 @ 85.3¢
• Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$27 @ 85.2¢
• Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?Politics
  No$18 @ 66.8¢
• Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?Culture
  No$11 @ 97.3¢
• Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027?Tech
  No$11 @ 91.7¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
  No$10 @ 78.8¢
• Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
  No$9 @ 36.8¢
• Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?Politics
  No$9 @ 81.3¢
• Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
  Yes$8 @ 65.3¢
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  No$8 @ 68.8¢
• Will Donald Trump visit Pakistan in 2026?Politics
  No$7 @ 92.8¢
• Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026?Politics
  No$7 @ 81.0¢
• Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
  No$6 @ 89.7¢
• Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
  No$6 @ 78.0¢
• Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch?Crypto
  No$6 @ 79.0¢
• Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
  Yes$6 @ 85.4¢
• Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Politics
  No$5 @ 80.8¢
• Hurupay FDV above $50M one day after launch?Crypto
  No$5 @ 98.4¢
• Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Culture
  No$4 @ 85.0¢
• Alexandra Leclerc pregnant in 2026?Culture
  Yes$4 @ 98.6¢
• Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Politics
  No$3 @ 59.0¢
• Hurupay FDV above $5M one day after launch?Crypto
  Yes$3 @ 30.0¢
• Will Bad Bunny rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026?Tech
  No$2 @ 69.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?Politics
  Yes$2 @ 82.0¢
• US strike on Colombia by December 31?Politics
  No$1 @ 86.0¢
• Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?Politics
  Yes$1 @ 72.0¢