0xb5c4…cb3b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb5c4eb8dd83402b22466504039bde5760043cb3b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+7.8pp

ROI

+16%

Win rate

60% @ 52.5¢

Brier

0.264

Resolved

277

Avg size

$15

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	54% (25/46)	+32%	46
Politics	58% (7/12)	-22%	12
Tech	60% (3/5)	-39%	5
Sports	50% (2/4)	+45%	4
Culture	100% (2/2)	+18%	2
Crypto	100% (2/2)	+110%	2

Other46 bets
Hit rate
54% (25/46)
ROI
+32%
Politics12 bets
Hit rate
58% (7/12)
ROI
-22%
Tech5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
-39%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+45%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+18%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+110%

Track record

58% hit · 41/71

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?	No	$96	85.6¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$116	55.3¢	Won
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	$41	37.5¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	No	$195	39.1¢	Lost
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	$21	50.9¢	Lost
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$14	88.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Gay" or "Homosexual" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?	Yes	$11	2.0¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	Yes	$22	29.9¢	Won
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	$4	78.0¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	Yes	$7	71.0¢	Lost
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	$8	58.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?	No	$5	88.0¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$52	71.4¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 19?	Yes	$14	41.3¢	Won
Iran leadership change by August 31?	No	$5	89.0¢	Won
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$11	66.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$153	67.2¢	Won
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	$298	39.5¢	Lost
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	No	$34	74.4¢	Lost
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	$3	17.4¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$115	25.3¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$198	21.7¢	Won
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 30 minutes long?	No	$11	63.8¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$143	67.9¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?	No	$23	71.9¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	No	$277	87.7¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	Yes	$335	25.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$431	5.3¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	Yes	$55	58.5¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?	No	$21	8.0¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$55	88.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	No	$12	62.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$58	62.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$99	84.3¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$203	78.2¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	No	$2	36.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "USMCA" or "NAFTA" during Michigan remarks?	No	$18	79.8¢	Won
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?	No	$13	71.8¢	Won
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	No	$86	68.2¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	No	$51	85.1¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	No	$12	90.0¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	Yes	$6	60.0¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?	No	$3	61.8¢	Won
Will Mohamed Salah play in Süper Lig next?	No	$7	64.7¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?	No	$32	81.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 12+ times during Michigan remarks?	No	$10	56.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	No	$9	72.4¢	Won
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?	No	$10	82.8¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?	No	$31	70.9¢	Won
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$34	24.0¢	Lost

Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?Won
No$96 @ 85.6¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$116 @ 55.3¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Lost
No$41 @ 37.5¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
No$195 @ 39.1¢
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Lost
Yes$21 @ 50.9¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$14 @ 88.0¢
Will Trump say "Gay" or "Homosexual" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?Lost
Yes$11 @ 2.0¢
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?Won
Yes$22 @ 29.9¢
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Won
Yes$4 @ 78.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Lost
Yes$7 @ 71.0¢
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Lost
Yes$8 @ 58.9¢
Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?Lost
No$5 @ 88.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$52 @ 71.4¢
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 19?Won
Yes$14 @ 41.3¢
Iran leadership change by August 31?Won
No$5 @ 89.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$11 @ 66.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$153 @ 67.2¢
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Lost
Yes$298 @ 39.5¢
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Lost
No$34 @ 74.4¢
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Lost
Yes$3 @ 17.4¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$115 @ 25.3¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$198 @ 21.7¢
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 30 minutes long?Won
No$11 @ 63.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$143 @ 67.9¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?Won
No$23 @ 71.9¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Lost
No$277 @ 87.7¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Won
Yes$335 @ 25.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$431 @ 5.3¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Won
Yes$55 @ 58.5¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$21 @ 8.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$55 @ 88.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Lost
No$12 @ 62.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$58 @ 62.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$99 @ 84.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$203 @ 78.2¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Won
No$2 @ 36.0¢
Will Trump say "USMCA" or "NAFTA" during Michigan remarks?Won
No$18 @ 79.8¢
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?Won
No$13 @ 71.8¢
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Won
No$86 @ 68.2¢
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?Won
No$51 @ 85.1¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Won
No$12 @ 90.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Lost
Yes$6 @ 60.0¢
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?Won
No$3 @ 61.8¢
Will Mohamed Salah play in Süper Lig next?Lost
No$7 @ 64.7¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?Won
No$32 @ 81.0¢
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 12+ times during Michigan remarks?Lost
No$10 @ 56.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?Won
No$9 @ 72.4¢
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 82.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?Won
No$31 @ 70.9¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$34 @ 24.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$267	86.3¢
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$199	89.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?	—	Yes	$129	64.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$101	78.8¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$77	77.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$70	84.5¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	No	$64	69.3¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$62	15.2¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$61	83.2¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Politics	No	$49	71.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$45	58.9¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$45	98.4¢
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	Business	No	$39	84.5¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$33	36.8¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$33	92.3¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$30	37.5¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$30	85.2¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Tech	No	$24	81.6¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$20	84.1¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?	Politics	No	$19	65.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	—	No	$18	82.4¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$18	96.4¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by September 30?	Culture	No	$18	92.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	—	No	$15	65.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$13	88.4¢
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$12	6.6¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$11	77.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?	—	No	$10	91.2¢
Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027?	Tech	No	$9	91.1¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Politics	No	$9	80.5¢

Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$267 @ 86.3¢
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$199 @ 89.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?—
Yes$129 @ 64.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?—
No$101 @ 78.8¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$77 @ 77.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$70 @ 84.5¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
No$64 @ 69.3¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$62 @ 15.2¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$61 @ 83.2¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?Politics
No$49 @ 71.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?—
Yes$45 @ 58.9¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?Geopolitics
No$45 @ 98.4¢
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Business
No$39 @ 84.5¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$33 @ 36.8¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Tech
No$33 @ 92.3¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$30 @ 37.5¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$30 @ 85.2¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Tech
No$24 @ 81.6¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$20 @ 84.1¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?Politics
No$19 @ 65.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?—
No$18 @ 82.4¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$18 @ 96.4¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by September 30?Culture
No$18 @ 92.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?—
No$15 @ 65.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$13 @ 88.4¢
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$12 @ 6.6¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$11 @ 77.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?—
No$10 @ 91.2¢
Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027?Tech
No$9 @ 91.1¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Politics
No$9 @ 80.5¢