← Smart money
0xa6b7…d5f3
SharpEdge
+15.6pp
ROI
+25%
Win rate
64% @ 48.8¢
Brier
0.133
Resolved
256
Avg size
$74
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 54% (13/24) | -63% | 24 |
| Politics | 32% (7/22) | -14% | 22 |
| Other | 58% (7/12) | +69% | 12 |
| Geopolitics | 0% (0/4) | -100% | 4 |
| Crypto | 67% (2/3) | +118% | 3 |
| Science | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
| Culture | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Sports24 bets
- Hit rate
- 54% (13/24)
- ROI
- -63%
- Politics22 bets
- Hit rate
- 32% (7/22)
- ROI
- -14%
- Other12 bets
- Hit rate
- 58% (7/12)
- ROI
- +69%
- Geopolitics4 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/4)
- ROI
- -100%
- Crypto3 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (2/3)
- ROI
- +118%
- Science1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
- Culture1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
43% hit · 29/67- No$3.2k @ 54.8¢
- Yes$10 @ 0.6¢
- Yes$195 @ 71.1¢
- Yes$15 @ 54.0¢
- Yes$155 @ 2.3¢
- Yes$521 @ 5.4¢
- Yes$20 @ 64.0¢
- Yes$22 @ 44.0¢
- Yes$527 @ 23.8¢
- Yes$32 @ 63.0¢
- Under$6 @ 55.0¢
- Yes$1.9k @ 25.2¢
- Over$9 @ 46.0¢
- Yes$429 @ 55.0¢
- Over$19 @ 38.0¢
- No$46 @ 76.5¢
- Yes$164 @ 11.8¢
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?LostNo$109 @ 8.3¢
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?WonYes$506 @ 45.4¢
- Yes$125 @ 33.4¢
- Yes$41 @ 19.0¢
- Yes$45 @ 45.0¢
- Yes$105 @ 47.0¢
- Yes$46 @ 5.0¢
- Yes$546 @ 45.6¢
- Yes$20 @ 63.0¢
- Yes$20 @ 3.1¢
- No$52 @ 6.3¢
- Yes$78 @ 5.4¢
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?WonYes$1.2k @ 60.5¢
- Yes$21 @ 8.0¢
- Yes$25 @ 75.0¢
- Yes$1.5k @ 52.4¢
- Yes$5 @ 6.0¢
- Yes$7 @ 85.9¢
- Yes$7 @ 1.5¢
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?LostYes$197 @ 47.7¢
- No$97 @ 48.3¢
- Yes$5.3k @ 75.9¢
- Yes$10 @ 69.0¢
- No$6 @ 71.0¢
- No$61 @ 20.0¢
- No$10 @ 75.0¢
- Yes$10 @ 69.0¢
- Yes$41 @ 2.1¢
- Yes$3 @ 2.9¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 66.2¢
- No$5 @ 73.0¢
- Yes$25 @ 37.8¢
- Yes$5 @ 36.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?GeopoliticsYes$1.2k @ 49.6¢
- Yes$616 @ 84.5¢
- No$427 @ 77.6¢
- Yes$420 @ 54.5¢
- Yes$369 @ 42.8¢
- Yes$327 @ 84.7¢
- No$326 @ 81.5¢
- Yes$301 @ 44.0¢
- Yes$286 @ 68.3¢
- Yes$286 @ 23.8¢
- Yes$224 @ 41.7¢
- Yes$204 @ 99.5¢
- Yes$199 @ 92.7¢
- Yes$182 @ 60.5¢
- No$182 @ 88.4¢
- No$179 @ 92.1¢
- Yes$171 @ 17.1¢
- No$158 @ 79.0¢
- No$153 @ 57.9¢
- Conor McGregor$149 @ 33.0¢
- Yes$137 @ 85.8¢
- Yes$118 @ 29.5¢
- Yes$88 @ 52.0¢
- Yes$88 @ 27.6¢
- Yes$78 @ 26.0¢
- Yes$70 @ 75.8¢
- No$63 @ 51.6¢
- Yes$62 @ 31.0¢
- Yes$55 @ 17.9¢
- Yes$53 @ 10.7¢