0x8fce…2566

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8fce065d5820ea3deb72976640290959bb952566
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.0pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

42% @ 33.2¢

Brier

0.187

Resolved

249

Avg size

$33

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	43% (12/28)	+17%	28
Sports	36% (8/22)	-17%	22
Tech	14% (2/14)	-68%	14
Politics	36% (4/11)	+23%	11
Geopolitics	100% (3/3)	+61%	3
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other28 bets
Hit rate
43% (12/28)
ROI
+17%
Sports22 bets
Hit rate
36% (8/22)
ROI
-17%
Tech14 bets
Hit rate
14% (2/14)
ROI
-68%
Politics11 bets
Hit rate
36% (4/11)
ROI
+23%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+61%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

37% hit · 29/79

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$146	14.6¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?	No	$464	58.6¢	Won
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Yes	$16	26.0¢	Lost
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$24	63.0¢	Won
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?	Yes	$61	38.1¢	Won
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$2	8.0¢	Lost
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	$13	47.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102,000 on November 8?	Yes	$35	15.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$8	0.6¢	Lost
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Yes	$5	18.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 20?	No	$10	5.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$48	24.0¢	Lost
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Yes	$3	36.0¢	Won
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Yes	$5	21.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$13	1.2¢	Lost
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	$5	24.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$15	0.7¢	Lost
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	$10	61.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	No	$277	77.3¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$12	1.1¢	Lost
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	$5	16.8¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	$247	72.8¢	Won
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?	Yes	$5	7.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$319	46.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$8	0.5¢	Lost
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	$123	22.5¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	$220	38.6¢	Lost
Oregon vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders	Oregon	$6	55.0¢	Won
Texans vs. Chargers	Chargers	$62	49.7¢	Lost
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$51	82.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$781	43.3¢	Lost
Rams vs. Falcons	Falcons	$20	65.0¢	Won
Rams vs. Falcons	Rams	$20	50.0¢	Lost
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	$5	26.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$9	0.8¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$139	39.0¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?	No	$284	67.7¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$608	75.3¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	$278	42.7¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	$39	38.0¢	Won
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	$5	13.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026?	No	$395	79.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	$16	8.0¢	Lost
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	Yes	$10	33.0¢	Lost
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$398	80.0¢	Lost
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$18	58.0¢	Lost
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	Yes	$300	87.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 14?	No	$44	24.6¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	$393	45.0¢	Won
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more?	Yes	$90	14.5¢	Lost

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$146 @ 14.6¢
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?Won
No$464 @ 58.6¢
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?Lost
Yes$16 @ 26.0¢
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?Won
Yes$24 @ 63.0¢
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?Won
Yes$61 @ 38.1¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.0¢
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Won
Yes$13 @ 47.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102,000 on November 8?Won
Yes$35 @ 15.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.6¢
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?Lost
Yes$5 @ 18.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 20?Lost
No$10 @ 5.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$48 @ 24.0¢
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?Won
Yes$3 @ 36.0¢
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?Lost
Yes$5 @ 21.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$13 @ 1.2¢
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?Won
Yes$5 @ 24.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 0.7¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?Lost
Yes$10 @ 61.0¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?Won
No$277 @ 77.3¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$12 @ 1.1¢
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?Lost
Yes$5 @ 16.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?Won
No$247 @ 72.8¢
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?Lost
Yes$5 @ 7.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$319 @ 46.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.5¢
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Won
Yes$123 @ 22.5¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Lost
No$220 @ 38.6¢
Oregon vs. Texas Tech Red RaidersWon
Oregon$6 @ 55.0¢
Texans vs. ChargersLost
Chargers$62 @ 49.7¢
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?Lost
Yes$51 @ 82.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$781 @ 43.3¢
Rams vs. FalconsWon
Falcons$20 @ 65.0¢
Rams vs. FalconsLost
Rams$20 @ 50.0¢
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?Lost
Yes$5 @ 26.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.8¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$139 @ 39.0¢
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?Won
No$284 @ 67.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$608 @ 75.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
Yes$278 @ 42.7¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Won
No$39 @ 38.0¢
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?Lost
Yes$5 @ 13.0¢
Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026?Won
No$395 @ 79.0¢
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?Lost
Yes$16 @ 8.0¢
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?Lost
Yes$10 @ 33.0¢
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$398 @ 80.0¢
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?Lost
Yes$18 @ 58.0¢
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?Won
Yes$300 @ 87.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 14?Lost
No$44 @ 24.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Won
Yes$393 @ 45.0¢
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more?Lost
Yes$90 @ 14.5¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$534	84.0¢
US recession by end of 2026?	Economy	No	$490	77.0¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Politics	No	$411	83.8¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	No	$363	82.4¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$328	82.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$303	75.7¢
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$245	62.1¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$211	47.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	Geopolitics	No	$200	74.4¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$159	53.0¢
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 in June?	—	Yes	$133	64.8¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$120	60.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$118	18.6¢
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$98	4.8¢
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more?	Politics	Yes	$87	14.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$87	38.9¢
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$84	20.7¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$84	4.6¢
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 in June?	—	Yes	$71	23.6¢
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$69	69.3¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$68	16.8¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$54	2.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$30	23.0¢
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$27	3.4¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$19	18.5¢
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$13	1.6¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$11	10.8¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$5	5.4¢

Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$534 @ 84.0¢
US recession by end of 2026?Economy
No$490 @ 77.0¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
No$411 @ 83.8¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
No$363 @ 82.4¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$328 @ 82.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$303 @ 75.7¢
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$245 @ 62.1¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$211 @ 47.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?Geopolitics
No$200 @ 74.4¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$159 @ 53.0¢
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 in June?—
Yes$133 @ 64.8¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$120 @ 60.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$118 @ 18.6¢
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$98 @ 4.8¢
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more?Politics
Yes$87 @ 14.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$87 @ 38.9¢
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$84 @ 20.7¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$84 @ 4.6¢
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 in June?—
Yes$71 @ 23.6¢
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$69 @ 69.3¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$68 @ 16.8¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$54 @ 2.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
Yes$30 @ 23.0¢
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$27 @ 3.4¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$19 @ 18.5¢
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$13 @ 1.6¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$11 @ 10.8¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$5 @ 5.4¢