← Smart money
0x88c4…129a
ProfitableEdge
-5.3pp
ROI
+5%
Win rate
63% @ 68.5¢
Brier
0.177
Resolved
911
Avg size
$643
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 86% (37/43) | +17% | 43 |
| Politics | 73% (16/22) | +0% | 22 |
| Geopolitics | 75% (15/20) | -23% | 20 |
| Sports | 100% (1/1) | +12% | 1 |
- Other43 bets
- Hit rate
- 86% (37/43)
- ROI
- +17%
- Politics22 bets
- Hit rate
- 73% (16/22)
- ROI
- +0%
- Geopolitics20 bets
- Hit rate
- 75% (15/20)
- ROI
- -23%
- Sports1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +12%
Track record
80% hit · 69/86- Yes$4.4k @ 60.9¢
- No$1.1k @ 89.5¢
- No$12.3k @ 87.0¢
- No$3.6k @ 84.3¢
- Cleveland Guardians$18.1k @ 88.6¢
- Baltimore Orioles$1.0k @ 87.2¢
- No$1.3k @ 79.9¢
- No$14.0k @ 71.3¢
- Pittsburgh Pirates$37.9k @ 77.5¢
- Yes$300 @ 80.7¢
- No$940 @ 78.8¢
- Minnesota Twins$100 @ 88.0¢
- Yes$1.3k @ 79.0¢
- Yes$1.9k @ 73.0¢
- No$2.5k @ 88.9¢
- Los Angeles Angels$1.7k @ 87.8¢
- No$35 @ 88.0¢
- Yes$1.6k @ 88.9¢
- Yes$505 @ 83.9¢
- Jasmine Paolini$13.8k @ 71.7¢
- No$256 @ 88.4¢
- No$12.4k @ 83.0¢
- New York Yankees$11.5k @ 60.9¢
- No$18.3k @ 85.3¢
- No$506 @ 63.1¢
- Detroit Tigers$18.1k @ 77.0¢
- No$73 @ 89.0¢
- No$17.6k @ 80.4¢
- No$550 @ 74.4¢
- New York Mets$3.2k @ 89.3¢
- Cleveland Guardians$2.3k @ 85.7¢
- No$2.0k @ 68.7¢
- Athletics$5.0k @ 85.6¢
- Yes$7.7k @ 73.0¢
- San Diego Padres$7.3k @ 78.4¢
- No$25.3k @ 71.7¢
- Yes$6.0k @ 87.6¢
- Minnesota Twins$4.7k @ 72.1¢
- Washington Nationals$3.9k @ 79.1¢
- Yes$532 @ 86.1¢
- No$5.8k @ 88.5¢
- No$3.3k @ 83.2¢
- No$2.4k @ 76.5¢
- Yes$2.4k @ 77.2¢
- Atlanta Braves$731 @ 89.4¢
- Pittsburgh Pirates$9.2k @ 88.1¢
- No$16.0k @ 86.3¢
- Colorado Rockies$41.0k @ 77.8¢
- Philadelphia Phillies$3.0k @ 82.6¢
- St. Louis Cardinals$522 @ 87.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
- No$470.9k @ 73.3¢
- Yes$91.7k @ 48.9¢
- No$62.4k @ 80.2¢
- Yes$49.9k @ 83.4¢
- No$26.2k @ 88.9¢
- No$25.2k @ 86.7¢
- No$21.0k @ 88.0¢
- No$17.6k @ 54.9¢
- Yes$17.2k @ 83.1¢
- No$14.9k @ 81.3¢
- Yes$13.1k @ 83.2¢
- Yes$5.9k @ 84.8¢
- No$4.4k @ 72.9¢
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?PoliticsNo$4.1k @ 77.6¢
- Yes$1.6k @ 23.3¢
- No$1.5k @ 76.8¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 31.0¢
- Yes$867 @ 85.1¢
- Yes$698 @ 92.5¢
- Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Goiás?PoliticsYes$420 @ 62.4¢
- Yes$295 @ 21.8¢
- No$112 @ 85.6¢