0x727e…8b9d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x727e819c79ac4eb555518cccdfd424d2d4cf8b9d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.0pp

ROI

+40%

Win rate

49% @ 43.1¢

Brier

0.187

Resolved

2045

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	53% (349/660)	+44%	660
Politics	56% (49/88)	+33%	88
Sports	27% (4/15)	-27%	15
Geopolitics	67% (8/12)	-7%	12
Culture	25% (1/4)	-53%	4
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+123%	2
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Science	100% (1/1)	+30%	1

Other660 bets
Hit rate
53% (349/660)
ROI
+44%
Politics88 bets
Hit rate
56% (49/88)
ROI
+33%
Sports15 bets
Hit rate
27% (4/15)
ROI
-27%
Geopolitics12 bets
Hit rate
67% (8/12)
ROI
-7%
Culture4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-53%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+123%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+30%

Track record

53% hit · 413/783

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will FDP win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	No	$4	85.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Rubio" or "Vance" during Memphis Roundtable?	Yes	$3	12.0¢	Lost
Will there be 3+ buzzer beaters during the 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament?	No	$5	51.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$9	46.5¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$7	69.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Democrat Shutdown" this week? (March 29)	No	$14	36.9¢	Lost
Will Starmer say "Scotland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	$6	60.5¢	Won
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	No	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" 5+ times during TPUSA events on April 17?	Yes	$37	83.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Drug" during Honduran President events?	No	$15	75.0¢	Won
Will "Chile" be said during the Valorant Masters Grand Finals?	Yes	$39	76.4¢	Won
Will Ethena be the top performing crypto for the week of March 9?	No	$2	70.0¢	Won
Will Ethena be the top performing crypto for the week of March 9?	Yes	$2	15.0¢	Lost
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones	Kentucky Wildcats	$3	14.5¢	Lost
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 3, 2026?	No	$21	51.1¢	Won
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?	Yes	$10	10.0¢	Lost
Will Starmer say "Lib Dems/Liberal Democrats" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	$10	85.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (March 1)	No	$6	60.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (March 1)	Yes	$2	9.0¢	Lost
No airdrop in 2025?	Yes	$1	6.7¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during Coast Guard event?	No	$1	29.0¢	Lost
Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 16m?	Yes	$4	2.0¢	Lost
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	$0	9.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Peace" during Honduran President events?	No	$3	62.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)	No	$22	12.1¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?	Yes	$4	18.5¢	Lost
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?	No	$16	38.5¢	Lost
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	$4	77.0¢	Won
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	$2	13.3¢	Lost
Will JD Vance say "Illegal" during the fundraiser?	No	$4	83.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Hormuz" this week? (March 22)	Yes	$4	85.0¢	Won
Will the team that wins the 2025-26 Super Bowl play in the NFC West?	Yes	$37	63.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "Sea" or "Water" during events with Brazilian president?	No	$3	65.0¢	Won
Will "Audit" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	Yes	$7	67.8¢	Won
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	$22	56.0¢	Won
Will "Yeah" be said 100+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week? (February 15)	Yes	$4	74.0¢	Won
Will Trump's 2pm signing event not air?	No	$15	32.5¢	Lost
Will Trump's 2pm signing event not air?	Yes	$3	52.0¢	Won
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$10	61.1¢	Won
Will Trump say "Pool" or "Pond" this week?	Yes	$16	45.0¢	Won
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?	No	$7	45.0¢	Won
Will "Sam" or "Altman" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	Yes	$36	88.4¢	Won
Will Trump say "Auto" or "Automobile" during tech signing event on Wednesday?	No	$1	61.0¢	Won
Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said 20+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	Yes	$8	35.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Ebola" or "COVID" during Cabinet meeting?	Yes	$43	43.0¢	Lost
Will "Dude" be said 10+ times on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 1)	Yes	$2	37.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$34	29.2¢	Lost
Odds US strikes Iran by Feb 28 over 30% on Friday?	No	$4	42.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" or "MAGA" this week? (March 8)	No	$14	70.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026?	No	$19	54.5¢	Won

Will FDP win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Won
No$4 @ 85.0¢
Will Trump say "Rubio" or "Vance" during Memphis Roundtable?Lost
Yes$3 @ 12.0¢
Will there be 3+ buzzer beaters during the 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament?Won
No$5 @ 51.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$9 @ 46.5¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$7 @ 69.0¢
Will Trump say "Democrat Shutdown" this week? (March 29)Lost
No$14 @ 36.9¢
Will Starmer say "Scotland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Won
No$6 @ 60.5¢
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?Lost
No$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" 5+ times during TPUSA events on April 17?Lost
Yes$37 @ 83.2¢
Will Trump say "Drug" during Honduran President events?Won
No$15 @ 75.0¢
Will "Chile" be said during the Valorant Masters Grand Finals?Won
Yes$39 @ 76.4¢
Will Ethena be the top performing crypto for the week of March 9?Won
No$2 @ 70.0¢
Will Ethena be the top performing crypto for the week of March 9?Lost
Yes$2 @ 15.0¢
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State CyclonesLost
Kentucky Wildcats$3 @ 14.5¢
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 3, 2026?Won
No$21 @ 51.1¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
Will Starmer say "Lib Dems/Liberal Democrats" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Won
No$10 @ 85.0¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (March 1)Won
No$6 @ 60.0¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (March 1)Lost
Yes$2 @ 9.0¢
No airdrop in 2025?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.7¢
Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during Coast Guard event?Lost
No$1 @ 29.0¢
Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 16m?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.0¢
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Won
Yes$0 @ 9.0¢
Will Trump say "Peace" during Honduran President events?Won
No$3 @ 62.0¢
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)Lost
No$22 @ 12.1¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?Lost
Yes$4 @ 18.5¢
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?Lost
No$16 @ 38.5¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Won
No$4 @ 77.0¢
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 13.3¢
Will JD Vance say "Illegal" during the fundraiser?Won
No$4 @ 83.0¢
Will Trump say "Hormuz" this week? (March 22)Won
Yes$4 @ 85.0¢
Will the team that wins the 2025-26 Super Bowl play in the NFC West?Won
Yes$37 @ 63.3¢
Will Trump say "Sea" or "Water" during events with Brazilian president?Won
No$3 @ 65.0¢
Will "Audit" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Won
Yes$7 @ 67.8¢
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Won
Yes$22 @ 56.0¢
Will "Yeah" be said 100+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week? (February 15)Won
Yes$4 @ 74.0¢
Will Trump's 2pm signing event not air?Lost
No$15 @ 32.5¢
Will Trump's 2pm signing event not air?Won
Yes$3 @ 52.0¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$10 @ 61.1¢
Will Trump say "Pool" or "Pond" this week?Won
Yes$16 @ 45.0¢
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?Won
No$7 @ 45.0¢
Will "Sam" or "Altman" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Won
Yes$36 @ 88.4¢
Will Trump say "Auto" or "Automobile" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Won
No$1 @ 61.0¢
Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said 20+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Won
Yes$8 @ 35.0¢
Will Trump say "Ebola" or "COVID" during Cabinet meeting?Lost
Yes$43 @ 43.0¢
Will "Dude" be said 10+ times on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 1)Won
Yes$2 @ 37.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$34 @ 29.2¢
Odds US strikes Iran by Feb 28 over 30% on Friday?Won
No$4 @ 42.0¢
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" or "MAGA" this week? (March 8)Won
No$14 @ 70.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026?Won
No$19 @ 54.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$1.0k	50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$1.0k	50.0¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Trump" during the next PMQ?	—	No	$139	94.7¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$124	95.1¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$119	90.8¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$110	87.6¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$92	87.7¢
Will Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Politics	No	$87	97.7¢
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027?	Politics	No	$82	83.8¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$81	90.5¢
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$66	94.7¢
Will Republicans win 0 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?	Politics	No	$65	92.9¢
Will Renan win the second-most votes in the 2026 Alagoas Senate election?	Politics	Yes	$58	40.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$46	91.1¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$44	88.0¢
Republican House odds dip to 5% by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$36	45.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Politics	Yes	$35	78.1¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$31	39.0¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Mr Speaker" 12+ times during the next PMQ?	—	No	$22	74.0¢
Will Trump endorse Augusto Cury for President of Brazil?	Politics	No	$20	96.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	Politics	No	$20	98.8¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$19	95.0¢
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?	Politics	No	$19	46.5¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$18	92.0¢
Will the Republican Party hold more governorships after the 2026 midterms?	Politics	No	$18	61.3¢
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$18	88.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$18	39.0¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Reform" during the next PMQ?	—	No	$16	81.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$15	25.8¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ?	—	No	$15	75.0¢

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$1.0k @ 50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$1.0k @ 50.0¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Trump" during the next PMQ?—
No$139 @ 94.7¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
No$124 @ 95.1¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$119 @ 90.8¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$110 @ 87.6¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$92 @ 87.7¢
Will Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Politics
No$87 @ 97.7¢
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027?Politics
No$82 @ 83.8¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
No$81 @ 90.5¢
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$66 @ 94.7¢
Will Republicans win 0 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?Politics
No$65 @ 92.9¢
Will Renan win the second-most votes in the 2026 Alagoas Senate election?Politics
Yes$58 @ 40.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Politics
No$46 @ 91.1¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$44 @ 88.0¢
Republican House odds dip to 5% by October 31?Politics
Yes$36 @ 45.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Politics
Yes$35 @ 78.1¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$31 @ 39.0¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Mr Speaker" 12+ times during the next PMQ?—
No$22 @ 74.0¢
Will Trump endorse Augusto Cury for President of Brazil?Politics
No$20 @ 96.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HousePolitics
No$20 @ 98.8¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
No$19 @ 95.0¢
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?Politics
No$19 @ 46.5¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$18 @ 92.0¢
Will the Republican Party hold more governorships after the 2026 midterms?Politics
No$18 @ 61.3¢
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?Politics
No$18 @ 88.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$18 @ 39.0¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Reform" during the next PMQ?—
No$16 @ 81.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Politics
No$15 @ 25.8¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ?—
No$15 @ 75.0¢