0x5449…992b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x54498e4c40b17261479aeaeeddf9cc37bd46992b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-9.3pp

ROI

+47%

Win rate

25% @ 33.9¢

Brier

0.135

Resolved

220

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	28% (23/82)	-29%	82
Politics	23% (9/39)	+119%	39
Crypto	0% (0/7)	-100%	7
Tech	33% (2/6)	-88%	6
Sports	33% (2/6)	-36%	6
Geopolitics	33% (1/3)	+40%	3
Culture	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Science	100% (1/1)	+8%	1
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other82 bets
Hit rate
28% (23/82)
ROI
-29%
Politics39 bets
Hit rate
23% (9/39)
ROI
+119%
Crypto7 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/7)
ROI
-100%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
-88%
Sports6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
-36%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+40%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+8%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

26% hit · 38/149

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 22?	No	$3	13.2¢	Won
Will Netherlands go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	No	$1	6.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22?	No	$1	66.8¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22?	Yes	$3	23.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 22?	Yes	$4	54.6¢	Lost
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?	Yes	$17	28.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 Senegal?	Yes	$2	4.0¢	Lost
Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 23?	No	$1	58.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 23?	Yes	$7	43.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23?	Yes	$2	6.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 23?	Yes	$1	1.4¢	Lost
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?	No	$2	26.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 23?	No	$3	72.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 23?	Yes	$1	30.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$3	3.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22?	No	$1	53.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22?	Yes	$3	41.0¢	Lost
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	$2	2.4¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1	1.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23?	No	$2	62.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23?	Yes	$2	25.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 23?	No	$7	67.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 23?	Yes	$12	33.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 23?	No	$1	62.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 22?	Yes	$1	2.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22?	Yes	$1	3.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23?	No	$1	70.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23?	Yes	$3	29.0¢	Lost
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$3	1.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 22?	Yes	$4	5.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23?	No	$2	87.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23?	Yes	$2	11.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 22?	Yes	$3	3.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 23?	Yes	$3	5.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 22?	Yes	$0	3.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 22?	Yes	$0	5.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23?	Yes	$4	44.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 22?	Yes	$15	18.4¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	$3	9.3¢	Lost
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?	Yes	$2	2.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 24?	Yes	$1	36.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 22?	Yes	$5	5.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 23?	No	$2	73.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 23?	Yes	$5	28.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22?	No	$1	69.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23?	No	$11	67.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23?	Yes	$11	36.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 23?	No	$1	83.0¢	Won

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 22?Won
No$3 @ 13.2¢
Will Netherlands go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Lost
No$1 @ 6.5¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22?Won
No$1 @ 66.8¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22?Lost
Yes$3 @ 23.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 22?Lost
Yes$4 @ 54.6¢
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Lost
Yes$17 @ 28.0¢
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 Senegal?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.0¢
Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 23?Won
No$1 @ 58.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 23?Lost
Yes$7 @ 43.1¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23?Lost
Yes$2 @ 6.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 23?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.4¢
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Lost
No$2 @ 26.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 23?Lost
No$3 @ 72.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 23?Won
Yes$1 @ 30.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22?Won
No$1 @ 53.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22?Lost
Yes$3 @ 41.0¢
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.4¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23?Lost
No$2 @ 62.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23?Lost
Yes$2 @ 25.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 23?Won
No$7 @ 67.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 23?Lost
Yes$12 @ 33.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 23?Won
No$1 @ 62.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 22?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23?Won
No$1 @ 70.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23?Lost
Yes$3 @ 29.0¢
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 22?Lost
Yes$4 @ 5.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23?Won
No$2 @ 87.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23?Lost
Yes$2 @ 11.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 22?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 23?Lost
Yes$3 @ 5.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 22?Lost
Yes$0 @ 3.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 22?Lost
Yes$0 @ 5.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23?Lost
Yes$4 @ 44.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 22?Lost
Yes$15 @ 18.4¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 9.3¢
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 24?Won
Yes$1 @ 36.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 22?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 23?Won
No$2 @ 73.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 23?Lost
Yes$5 @ 28.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22?Lost
No$1 @ 69.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23?Won
No$11 @ 67.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23?Lost
Yes$11 @ 36.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 23?Won
No$1 @ 83.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$3.1k	57.1¢
Trump out as President by June 30?	Politics	No	$259	98.8¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$236	76.4¢
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?	Politics	No	$216	73.5¢
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Crypto	No	$178	98.4¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$174	45.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$163	78.7¢
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	No	$158	65.4¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Geopolitics	No	$140	95.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$134	92.0¢
Netanyahu out by June 30?	Politics	No	$130	90.8¢
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$114	5.7¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Politics	No	$98	90.1¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Politics	No	$96	82.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$95	25.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Politics	Yes	$90	32.9¢
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?	Sports	No	$86	95.5¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$82	79.6¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$78	87.4¢
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$78	1.2¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$78	11.0¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$73	97.2¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	No	$71	67.5¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Politics	No	$68	89.4¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$68	2.6¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$67	8.8¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$66	88.5¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$63	8.5¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$61	8.3¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Politics	No	$59	93.9¢

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics
Yes$3.1k @ 57.1¢
Trump out as President by June 30?Politics
No$259 @ 98.8¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
No$236 @ 76.4¢
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?Politics
No$216 @ 73.5¢
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?Crypto
No$178 @ 98.4¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$174 @ 45.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$163 @ 78.7¢
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
No$158 @ 65.4¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Geopolitics
No$140 @ 95.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$134 @ 92.0¢
Netanyahu out by June 30?Politics
No$130 @ 90.8¢
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$114 @ 5.7¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Politics
No$98 @ 90.1¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Politics
No$96 @ 82.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$95 @ 25.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Politics
Yes$90 @ 32.9¢
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?Sports
No$86 @ 95.5¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$82 @ 79.6¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$78 @ 87.4¢
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$78 @ 1.2¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$78 @ 11.0¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$73 @ 97.2¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
No$71 @ 67.5¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
No$68 @ 89.4¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Politics
Yes$68 @ 2.6¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$67 @ 8.8¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?Politics
No$66 @ 88.5¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$63 @ 8.5¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$61 @ 8.3¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Politics
No$59 @ 93.9¢