0x5073…16a7

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x50733d0627e4763d7d7e81a69abc345edf6416a7
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.4pp

ROI

+18%

Win rate

46% @ 40.0¢

Brier

0.180

Resolved

1473

Avg size

$31

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	41% (39/96)	+55%	96
Politics	37% (20/54)	+2%	54
Sports	32% (7/22)	-62%	22
Economy	19% (3/16)	+35%	16
Geopolitics	43% (6/14)	+2%	14
Tech	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Other96 bets
Hit rate
41% (39/96)
ROI
+55%
Politics54 bets
Hit rate
37% (20/54)
ROI
+2%
Sports22 bets
Hit rate
32% (7/22)
ROI
-62%
Economy16 bets
Hit rate
19% (3/16)
ROI
+35%
Geopolitics14 bets
Hit rate
43% (6/14)
ROI
+2%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

37% hit · 75/204

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$415	32.8¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?	Yes	$8	84.0¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$77	76.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	$585	28.9¢	Won
Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during April press conference?	Yes	$5	51.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$174	58.0¢	Won
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$5	0.6¢	Lost
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Yes	$5	21.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on April 10?	Yes	$9	43.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$116	14.3¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$4	0.7¢	Lost
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	No	$44	10.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.6k	83.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.3k	39.0¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$76	20.1¢	Lost
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?	Yes	$64	15.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 16?	Yes	$2	1.0¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting?	Yes	$46	12.0¢	Lost
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$24	3.9¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?	No	$80	79.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?	Yes	$103	63.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 16?	Yes	$3	3.2¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$35	0.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$350	24.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	40.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 17?	Yes	$3	6.0¢	Lost
Will Powell say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during April press conference?	Yes	$2	19.0¢	Won
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	$6	46.0¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$121	10.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on April 17?	Yes	$1	1.4¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$9	2.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 16?	Yes	$3	13.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$193	17.7¢	Lost
Will Powell say "No Comment" during April press conference?	Yes	$3	30.0¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May Meeting?	Yes	$456	77.8¢	Won
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting?	No	$1	0.9¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$132	42.6¢	Lost
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$9	0.3¢	Lost
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$23	1.5¢	Lost
Will Powell say "Luck" during April press conference?	Yes	$2	20.0¢	Lost
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	Yes	$2	2.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	$7	26.0¢	Lost
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in July?	Yes	$21	2.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$759	65.7¢	Won
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in April?	Yes	$15	24.1¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?	Yes	$33	25.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	No	$1.7k	51.8¢	Won
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?	No	$13	26.2¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	$551	53.6¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	$886	60.4¢	Won

No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$415 @ 32.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 84.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$77 @ 76.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Won
Yes$585 @ 28.9¢
Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during April press conference?Lost
Yes$5 @ 51.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$174 @ 58.0¢
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.6¢
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?Lost
Yes$5 @ 21.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on April 10?Lost
Yes$9 @ 43.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$116 @ 14.3¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 0.7¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?Lost
No$44 @ 10.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.6k @ 83.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.3k @ 39.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$76 @ 20.1¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?Lost
Yes$64 @ 15.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 16?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.0¢
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting?Lost
Yes$46 @ 12.0¢
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$24 @ 3.9¢
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?Won
No$80 @ 79.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?Won
Yes$103 @ 63.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 16?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$35 @ 0.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$350 @ 24.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 40.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 17?Lost
Yes$3 @ 6.0¢
Will Powell say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during April press conference?Won
Yes$2 @ 19.0¢
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Won
Yes$6 @ 46.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$121 @ 10.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on April 17?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.4¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$9 @ 2.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 16?Lost
Yes$3 @ 13.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$193 @ 17.7¢
Will Powell say "No Comment" during April press conference?Lost
Yes$3 @ 30.0¢
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May Meeting?Won
Yes$456 @ 77.8¢
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting?Lost
No$1 @ 0.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$132 @ 42.6¢
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.3¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$23 @ 1.5¢
Will Powell say "Luck" during April press conference?Lost
Yes$2 @ 20.0¢
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?Lost
Yes$7 @ 26.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in July?Lost
Yes$21 @ 2.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$759 @ 65.7¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in April?Lost
Yes$15 @ 24.1¢
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?Lost
Yes$33 @ 25.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?Won
No$1.7k @ 51.8¢
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?Lost
No$13 @ 26.2¢
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting?Won
Yes$551 @ 53.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?Won
No$886 @ 60.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Politics	Yes	$462	66.8¢
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?	Economy	Yes	$293	68.5¢
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Economy	Yes	$209	51.2¢
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$168	42.4¢
Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate after the September meeting?	Economy	Yes	$156	43.5¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?	Politics	Yes	$149	39.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% in September?	Economy	No	$149	38.1¢
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$137	20.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?	Other	Yes	$115	45.9¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$103	55.6¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% in September?	Economy	No	$92	51.0¢
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$69	33.1¢
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in September 2026 be between 1.6% and 1.8%?	Economy	Yes	$63	26.8¢
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$60	30.0¢
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$49	21.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$46	65.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$44	11.0¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$38	7.6¢
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?	Economy	No	$29	61.6¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.67% in September?	Economy	Yes	$27	6.3¢
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Politics	No	$27	71.7¢
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?	Economy	Yes	$25	4.7¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027?	Economy	No	$24	30.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% in September?	Economy	Yes	$24	9.2¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.64% in September?	Economy	Yes	$22	4.1¢
Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate after the September meeting?	Economy	Yes	$21	73.3¢
Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Economy	Yes	$20	33.3¢
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.00% and 6.49%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$20	3.5¢
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.50% and 6.99%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$10	1.5¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.61% in September?	Economy	Yes	$8	2.3¢

Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?Politics
Yes$462 @ 66.8¢
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?Economy
Yes$293 @ 68.5¢
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?Economy
Yes$209 @ 51.2¢
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?Geopolitics
Yes$168 @ 42.4¢
Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate after the September meeting?Economy
Yes$156 @ 43.5¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?Politics
Yes$149 @ 39.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% in September?Economy
No$149 @ 38.1¢
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?Geopolitics
Yes$137 @ 20.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?Other
Yes$115 @ 45.9¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$103 @ 55.6¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% in September?Economy
No$92 @ 51.0¢
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$69 @ 33.1¢
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in September 2026 be between 1.6% and 1.8%?Economy
Yes$63 @ 26.8¢
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Politics
No$60 @ 30.0¢
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?Politics
Yes$49 @ 21.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$46 @ 65.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
Yes$44 @ 11.0¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Politics
Yes$38 @ 7.6¢
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?Economy
No$29 @ 61.6¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.67% in September?Economy
Yes$27 @ 6.3¢
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?Politics
No$27 @ 71.7¢
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?Economy
Yes$25 @ 4.7¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027?Economy
No$24 @ 30.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% in September?Economy
Yes$24 @ 9.2¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.64% in September?Economy
Yes$22 @ 4.1¢
Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate after the September meeting?Economy
Yes$21 @ 73.3¢
Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?Economy
Yes$20 @ 33.3¢
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.00% and 6.49%?Geopolitics
Yes$20 @ 3.5¢
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.50% and 6.99%?Geopolitics
Yes$10 @ 1.5¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.61% in September?Economy
Yes$8 @ 2.3¢