0x5073…16a7

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other243 bets

  Hit rate

  33% (80/243)

  ROI

  +46%

• Politics101 bets

  Hit rate

  30% (30/101)

  ROI

  +2%

• Economy48 bets

  Hit rate

  25% (12/48)

  ROI

  +1%

• Sports22 bets

  Hit rate

  32% (7/22)

  ROI

  -62%

• Geopolitics16 bets

  Hit rate

  38% (6/16)

  ROI

  +1%

• Tech2 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/2)

  ROI

  -100%

• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Lost
  Yes$44 @ 11.0¢
• Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in October?Lost
  Yes$6 @ 24.0¢
• Will the Democratic Party win the AR-02 House seat?Lost
  Yes$33 @ 28.3¢
• Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Lost
  No$42 @ 28.0¢
• Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting?Lost
  Yes$24 @ 0.3¢
• Will the Democratic Party win the FL-04 House seat?Lost
  Yes$23 @ 17.1¢
• Will the US add between 75k and 100k jobs in October?Lost
  Yes$23 @ 24.8¢
• Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Lost
  No$12 @ 18.5¢
• Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Lost
  Yes$32 @ 23.0¢
• Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Won
  Yes$54 @ 34.6¢
• No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?Lost
  Yes$31 @ 77.0¢
• Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Lost
  No$60 @ 30.0¢
• No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?Lost
  Yes$69 @ 33.1¢
• Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?Lost
  No$29 @ 61.6¢
• Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?Won
  Yes$85 @ 75.5¢
• Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?Lost
  Yes$292 @ 73.0¢
• Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?Lost
  Yes$25 @ 4.7¢
• Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$34 @ 0.6¢
• No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?Lost
  Yes$415 @ 32.8¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?Won
  Yes$8 @ 84.0¢
• Will Warsh say "Job" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 47.0¢
• Will Praggnanandhaa R win on 2026-04-09 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?Lost
  Yes$8 @ 15.0¢
• Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
  Yes$77 @ 76.0¢
• Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$579 @ 5.6¢
• Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Won
  Yes$585 @ 28.9¢
• Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during April press conference?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 51.0¢
• Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 8?Won
  Yes$14 @ 39.4¢
• Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting?Won
  Yes$217 @ 85.6¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$174 @ 58.0¢
• Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C or higher on April 7?Lost
  Yes$4 @ 76.0¢
• Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 0.6¢
• Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 21.0¢
• Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on April 10?Lost
  Yes$9 @ 43.0¢
• Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 12.0¢
• Will Trump say "Peace" during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 18.0¢
• Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
  Yes$116 @ 14.3¢
• Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?Lost
  No$20 @ 6.9¢
• Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on April 7?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 16.0¢
• Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$4 @ 0.7¢
• Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?Lost
  No$44 @ 10.5¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$1.6k @ 83.7¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$2.3k @ 39.0¢
• Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$76 @ 20.1¢
• Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?Lost
  Yes$64 @ 15.0¢
• Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$70 @ 1.9¢
• Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 16?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 1.0¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Won
  No$36 @ 71.0¢
• Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 10?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 8.9¢
• Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 9?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
• Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting?Lost
  Yes$46 @ 12.0¢

Current positions

• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$375 @ 78.9¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$327 @ 75.1¢
• Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?Geopolitics
  Yes$180 @ 34.4¢
• Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?Geopolitics
  Yes$169 @ 24.3¢
• Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?Politics
  Yes$153 @ 66.0¢
• Will the Central Bank of Chile make no change to the monetary policy rate at the December meeting?Economy
  Yes$150 @ 53.8¢
• Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?Economy
  Yes$149 @ 26.1¢
• Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?Politics
  Yes$130 @ 17.7¢
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?Politics
  Yes$119 @ 13.4¢
• Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$101 @ 38.0¢
• Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% in September?Economy
  No$94 @ 5.4¢
• Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?Geopolitics
  Yes$86 @ 28.8¢
• Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  Yes$83 @ 55.6¢
• Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?Politics
  Yes$80 @ 18.3¢
• Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?Economy
  Yes$70 @ 8.6¢
• No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$69 @ 33.1¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Politics
  Yes$66 @ 40.4¢
• Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Politics
  No$60 @ 30.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Politics
  Yes$50 @ 25.0¢
• Will the ECB announce no change at the December 2026 meeting?Economy
  Yes$50 @ 12.1¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
  Yes$44 @ 11.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$42 @ 28.0¢
• Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?Politics
  Yes$41 @ 34.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$39 @ 38.7¢
• Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?Politics
  No$38 @ 37.3¢
• Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Politics
  Yes$38 @ 7.6¢
• Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?Economy
  Yes$37 @ 19.9¢
• Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?Politics
  Yes$36 @ 21.9¢
• Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg?Politics
  Yes$36 @ 57.0¢
• Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September?Economy
  Yes$34 @ 48.6¢