← Smart money
0x44c1…ebc1
Edge
+0.5pp
ROI
-18%
Win rate
22% @ 21.1¢
Brier
0.083
Resolved
1052
Avg size
$526
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 48% (68/143) | -5% | 143 |
| Other | 39% (21/54) | -12% | 54 |
| Geopolitics | 33% (5/15) | -38% | 15 |
| Culture | 50% (6/12) | -31% | 12 |
| Tech | 100% (3/3) | +103% | 3 |
| Crypto | 67% (2/3) | +11% | 3 |
| Sports | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
| Science | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Politics143 bets
- Hit rate
- 48% (68/143)
- ROI
- -5%
- Other54 bets
- Hit rate
- 39% (21/54)
- ROI
- -12%
- Geopolitics15 bets
- Hit rate
- 33% (5/15)
- ROI
- -38%
- Culture12 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (6/12)
- ROI
- -31%
- Tech3 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (3/3)
- ROI
- +103%
- Crypto3 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (2/3)
- ROI
- +11%
- Sports1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
- Science1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
45% hit · 105/232- Yes$41 @ 70.0¢
- Yes$6 @ 1.5¢
- No$8 @ 79.9¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 2.2¢
- No$16.1k @ 31.0¢
- Yes$1.0k @ 65.8¢
- Yes$8.6k @ 34.6¢
- No$49.3k @ 68.7¢
- Yes$647 @ 5.7¢
- No$27.3k @ 31.4¢
- Yes$22.5k @ 61.2¢
- Yes$909 @ 0.5¢
- Yes$656 @ 0.7¢
- Yes$45 @ 83.3¢
- No$267 @ 54.8¢
- Yes$693 @ 47.7¢
- Yes$1.4k @ 69.8¢
- Yes$249 @ 20.0¢
- Yes$0 @ 2.9¢
- No$3.5k @ 65.8¢
- Yes$246 @ 5.0¢
- Yes$15.5k @ 31.0¢
- Yes$4 @ 19.0¢
- No$1.2k @ 2.8¢
- No$5.8k @ 17.4¢
- No$17.1k @ 66.8¢
- No$8.6k @ 15.3¢
- No$3.8k @ 20.5¢
- No$4.9k @ 33.8¢
- Yes$882 @ 45.6¢
- Team Liquid$116.0k @ 38.7¢
- Yes$17 @ 1.7¢
- No$707 @ 4.6¢
- Yes$6.5k @ 68.9¢
- No$79.7k @ 55.6¢
- Yes$9.1k @ 19.0¢
- Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?LostNo$192 @ 2.9¢
- Yes$156 @ 84.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 16.0¢
- Yes$6.9k @ 19.7¢
- No$5.6k @ 53.6¢
- Yes$1.2k @ 1.1¢
- No$9.1k @ 68.2¢
- Yes$648 @ 4.4¢
- No$3 @ 57.0¢
- Yes$15 @ 37.0¢
- No$93 @ 10.2¢
- Yes$6.8k @ 30.9¢
- Yes$24.6k @ 57.7¢
- Yes$74 @ 9.9¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
- No$59.4k @ 82.5¢
- No$54.9k @ 71.5¢
- No$14.4k @ 58.9¢
- Yes$6.9k @ 23.7¢
- Yes$6.5k @ 81.8¢
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?GeopoliticsYes$3.9k @ 44.1¢
- Yes$2.5k @ 39.2¢
- Yes$2.4k @ 38.5¢
- Yes$2.0k @ 67.2¢
- Yes$1.8k @ 40.7¢
- Yes$1.7k @ 37.7¢
- Yes$1.4k @ 33.8¢
- No$1.4k @ 93.7¢
- Yes$1.3k @ 22.3¢
- Kash Patel out by December 31?PoliticsYes$1.3k @ 63.4¢
- Yes$999 @ 8.2¢
- Yes$688 @ 18.4¢
- Yes$490 @ 19.9¢
- Yes$394 @ 13.1¢
- Yes$375 @ 15.0¢
- Yes$229 @ 29.6¢
- Yes$183 @ 28.7¢
- No$182 @ 87.8¢
- Yes$178 @ 6.7¢
- Yes$173 @ 26.0¢
- Yes$171 @ 46.9¢
- Yes$167 @ 61.2¢
- No$120 @ 95.9¢
- Yes$114 @ 43.1¢
- Yes$107 @ 21.4¢