0x392a…262d

Specialization by sphere

• Politics99 bets

  Hit rate

  53% (52/99)

  ROI

  +3%

• Other73 bets

  Hit rate

  48% (35/73)

  ROI

  +15%

• Geopolitics29 bets

  Hit rate

  48% (14/29)

  ROI

  +34%

• Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Won
  No$76 @ 76.0¢
• Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Won
  No$100 @ 80.5¢
• Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Lost
  Yes$8 @ 42.0¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$336 @ 32.4¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Lost
  No$234 @ 29.2¢
• Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?Lost
  No$60 @ 20.0¢
• Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?Lost
  Yes$30 @ 75.3¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
  Yes$20 @ 12.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$260 @ 65.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$35 @ 11.7¢
• Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
  No$410 @ 38.6¢
• Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$128 @ 32.0¢
• Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Lost
  Yes$31 @ 52.0¢
• Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$25 @ 12.3¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
• Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
  Yes$70 @ 35.0¢
• Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?Won
  No$72 @ 36.0¢
• Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?Lost
  Yes$36 @ 36.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?Lost
  No$9 @ 44.0¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Won
  No$914 @ 51.5¢
• JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?Won
  Yes$85 @ 85.0¢
• Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
  No$180 @ 69.2¢
• Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Lost
  Yes$58 @ 29.0¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
  No$185 @ 36.8¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
  Yes$1.3k @ 80.1¢
• Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$87 @ 34.8¢
• Will Putin visit China by May 31?Lost
  No$3 @ 15.0¢
• Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?Won
  Yes$507 @ 79.0¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?Won
  No$207 @ 69.0¢
• Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?Lost
  No$16 @ 80.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
  No$976 @ 61.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$520 @ 60.5¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
  Yes$124 @ 9.7¢
• Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Won
  No$40 @ 40.0¢
• Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$44 @ 36.8¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 3.1¢
• Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?Won
  No$12 @ 81.0¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
  Yes$59 @ 23.7¢
• Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Lost
  No$30 @ 10.0¢
• Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$612 @ 69.5¢
• Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$163 @ 11.7¢
• US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 7.7¢
• US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Won
  No$129 @ 38.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
  No$1.9k @ 69.9¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
  Yes$214 @ 13.4¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Won
  No$141 @ 47.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Won
  No$216 @ 72.0¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Lost
  Yes$35 @ 33.6¢
• Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
  No$118 @ 59.0¢
• Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Lost
  Yes$6 @ 28.0¢

Current positions

• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$1.0k @ 55.0¢
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$1.0k @ 56.7¢
• Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Politics
  Yes$917 @ 63.5¢
• Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$836 @ 59.5¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
  No$827 @ 78.4¢
• Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$816 @ 54.4¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
  No$740 @ 74.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$716 @ 59.3¢
• Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?Politics
  Yes$624 @ 49.1¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
  No$596 @ 71.0¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
  No$504 @ 77.6¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$328 @ 50.3¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?Politics
  No$264 @ 64.5¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
  No$240 @ 60.0¢
• Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$211 @ 52.7¢
• Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$205 @ 68.3¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$174 @ 58.0¢
• Will Apple purchase memory CXMT chips in 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$142 @ 28.2¢
• Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Politics
  Yes$135 @ 67.5¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  Yes$66 @ 66.0¢
• Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?Politics
  No$64 @ 74.5¢
• Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Politics
  No$26 @ 46.3¢
• Will Anton Danko win the 2026 Poprad mayoral election?Politics
  Yes$24 @ 79.0¢
• Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$12 @ 63.0¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?Geopolitics
  Yes$9 @ 2.9¢
• Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$7 @ 7.0¢
• Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
  No$5 @ 9.0¢
• Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  Yes$5 @ 53.2¢
• Will Hsieh Lung-chieh win the next Tainan Mayor election?Politics
  Yes$3 @ 5.0¢
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  No$1 @ 65.0¢