0x2574…144b

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics34 bets

  Hit rate

  62% (21/34)

  ROI

  +73%

• Other23 bets

  Hit rate

  52% (12/23)

  ROI

  +29%

• Sports7 bets

  Hit rate

  71% (5/7)

  ROI

  +20%

• Geopolitics6 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (4/6)

  ROI

  +57%

• Tech2 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (2/2)

  ROI

  +118%

• Science2 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (2/2)

  ROI

  +39%

• Economy2 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/2)

  ROI

  -100%

• Culture1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +30%

• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Lost
  Yes$200 @ 42.0¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$54 @ 53.8¢
• Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Won
  Yes$200 @ 88.7¢
• Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?Won
  Yes$10 @ 36.0¢
• Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
  No$10 @ 0.3¢
• Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
  No$50 @ 83.0¢
• Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 9.6¢
• Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Lost
  No$153 @ 54.0¢
• Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Lost
  Yes$61 @ 61.0¢
• Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?Lost
  No$308 @ 36.5¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$250 @ 73.4¢
• Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
  Yes$14 @ 19.0¢
• Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 3.9¢
• Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$14 @ 69.0¢
• Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?Lost
  Yes$15 @ 7.0¢
• Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Won
  Yes$23 @ 60.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
  Yes$124 @ 0.6¢
• Will Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?Lost
  Yes$72 @ 18.6¢
• Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$28 @ 9.1¢
• Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$51 @ 43.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$50 @ 34.0¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Lost
  Yes$34 @ 17.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
  No$120 @ 61.8¢
• Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
  Yes$50 @ 71.2¢
• Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
  No$85 @ 84.1¢
• Portugal vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceLost
  Portugal$15 @ 34.0¢
• Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$123 @ 29.1¢
• Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?Won
  Yes$234 @ 83.3¢
• Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
  No$225 @ 81.9¢
• Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?Lost
  Yes$53 @ 89.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
  No$200 @ 61.0¢
• Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$26 @ 52.6¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
  No$200 @ 44.1¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
  No$28 @ 56.3¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
  No$153 @ 83.0¢
• Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?Won
  Yes$15 @ 83.0¢
• Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Won
  No$40 @ 4.5¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$100 @ 76.0¢
• Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw?Won
  No$20 @ 88.0¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Won
  No$50 @ 57.0¢
• Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Lost
  No$92 @ 46.0¢
• Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?Won
  Yes$156 @ 77.0¢
• Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
  No$101 @ 83.0¢
• United States vs. Belgium: Team to AdvanceWon
  Belgium$10 @ 48.0¢
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
  Yes$103 @ 85.4¢
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
  Yes$260 @ 9.5¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
  No$123 @ 73.0¢
• Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
  Yes$20 @ 32.8¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Won
  No$26 @ 26.5¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Won
  No$150 @ 79.0¢

Current positions

• Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  Yes$200 @ 64.0¢
• Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Politics
  No$200 @ 82.1¢
• Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?Tech
  Yes$200 @ 29.7¢
• US imports Russian diesel by December 31?Politics
  Yes$200 @ 79.0¢
• Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?Economy
  Yes$200 @ 67.1¢
• Will Democrats win white women in the midterms?Politics
  Yes$200 @ 62.0¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Politics
  Yes$200 @ 42.0¢
• Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
  Yes$200 @ 41.3¢
• Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?Economy
  Yes$194 @ 64.8¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?Politics
  No$154 @ 77.0¢
• 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
  Yes$86 @ 51.0¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$81 @ 57.6¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$72 @ 28.8¢
• Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$60 @ 2.6¢
• Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$18 @ 0.1¢