0x24de…83cb

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x24ded84d901a743cfee095f8082b0f9f647183cb
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+14.9pp

ROI

+26%

Win rate

77% @ 62.0¢

Brier

0.183

Resolved

260

Avg size

$384

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	71% (22/31)	-16%	31
Sports	55% (6/11)	-4%	11
Politics	75% (3/4)	+48%	4
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+47%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+45%	1

Other31 bets
Hit rate
71% (22/31)
ROI
-16%
Sports11 bets
Hit rate
55% (6/11)
ROI
-4%
Politics4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+48%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+47%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+45%

Track record

69% hit · 33/48

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets	Trail Blazers	$14	76.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Monte	$8	30.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Team Falcons	$991	76.0¢	Won
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?	Yes	$1.2k	86.0¢	Won
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?	Yes	$13	64.0¢	Lost
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Gen.G	$54	71.0¢	Won
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22?	No	$2.8k	75.0¢	Won
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?	Yes	$76	53.0¢	Won
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?	Yes	$317	83.0¢	Lost
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18?	Yes	$500	70.0¢	Won
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier	Hanwha Life Esports	$338	84.0¢	Won
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	$382	79.4¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$40	40.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs	Vitality	$6.4k	80.0¢	Won
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	$17	43.4¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	TheMongolz	$2.2k	66.0¢	Won
Will Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw?	No	$450	81.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$3.5k	85.5¢	Lost
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	$99	88.9¢	Won
Will Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?	No	$1.7k	84.0¢	Won
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?	Yes	$46	60.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$300	60.0¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$575	68.9¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Vitality	$157	78.0¢	Won
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?	Yes	$441	78.0¢	Won
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?	Yes	$261	76.7¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$42.5k	66.4¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$7.9k	75.1¢	Won
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11?	Yes	$668	47.5¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Song Yadong	$100	17.0¢	Won
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$363	59.0¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	$535	68.0¢	Won
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-08-29?	No	$1.5k	89.8¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?	No	$379	80.9¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Spirit	$1.0k	88.0¢	Won
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Bilibili Gaming	$2.0k	80.0¢	Won
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-14?	No	$441	71.1¢	Won
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-14?	Yes	$136	68.0¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Aoriqileng (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Kai Asakura	$998	80.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Natus Vincere	$1.9k	55.0¢	Lost
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs	Bilibili Gaming	$10.4k	69.9¢	Won
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs	G2 Esports	$3.9k	27.2¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Vitality	$1.6k	82.0¢	Won
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	Gen.G	$300	60.0¢	Lost
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	Bilibili Gaming	$115	80.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$290	58.0¢	Won
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	$1.5k	83.0¢	Won
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-03-03?	No	$9.6k	86.0¢	Lost

Trail Blazers vs. NuggetsLost
Trail Blazers$14 @ 76.0¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Lost
Monte$8 @ 30.0¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Won
Team Falcons$991 @ 76.0¢
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 86.0¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?Lost
Yes$13 @ 64.0¢
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2Won
Gen.G$54 @ 71.0¢
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22?Won
No$2.8k @ 75.0¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?Won
Yes$76 @ 53.0¢
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?Lost
Yes$317 @ 83.0¢
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18?Won
Yes$500 @ 70.0¢
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance QualifierWon
Hanwha Life Esports$338 @ 84.0¢
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Won
Yes$382 @ 79.4¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$40 @ 40.0¢
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals PlayoffsWon
Vitality$6.4k @ 80.0¢
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Lost
Yes$17 @ 43.4¢
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Won
TheMongolz$2.2k @ 66.0¢
Will Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw?Won
No$450 @ 81.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$3.5k @ 85.5¢
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
No$99 @ 88.9¢
Will Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?Won
No$1.7k @ 84.0¢
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?Lost
Yes$46 @ 60.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$300 @ 60.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$575 @ 68.9¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Won
Vitality$157 @ 78.0¢
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?Won
Yes$441 @ 78.0¢
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?Won
Yes$261 @ 76.7¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$42.5k @ 66.4¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$7.9k @ 75.1¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11?Lost
Yes$668 @ 47.5¢
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (Bantamweight, Main Card)Won
Song Yadong$100 @ 17.0¢
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?Lost
Yes$363 @ 59.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Won
No$535 @ 68.0¢
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-08-29?Won
No$1.5k @ 89.8¢
Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?Won
No$379 @ 80.9¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Won
Spirit$1.0k @ 88.0¢
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL PlayoffsWon
Bilibili Gaming$2.0k @ 80.0¢
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-14?Won
No$441 @ 71.1¢
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-14?Lost
Yes$136 @ 68.0¢
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Aoriqileng (Bantamweight, Main Card)Won
Kai Asakura$998 @ 80.0¢
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Lost
Natus Vincere$1.9k @ 55.0¢
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand PlayoffsWon
Bilibili Gaming$10.4k @ 69.9¢
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand PlayoffsLost
G2 Esports$3.9k @ 27.2¢
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Won
Vitality$1.6k @ 82.0¢
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSILost
Gen.G$300 @ 60.0¢
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group AscendWon
Bilibili Gaming$115 @ 80.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$290 @ 58.0¢
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 83.0¢
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-03-03?Lost
No$9.6k @ 86.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$19.8k	99.1¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	—	Yes	$2.1k	53.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$430	3.2¢
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$430	3.2¢
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$430	3.2¢
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$430	3.2¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$430	3.2¢
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$430	3.2¢
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$430	3.2¢
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$430	3.2¢
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$430	3.2¢
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$430	3.2¢
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$430	3.2¢
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$430	3.2¢
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$430	3.2¢
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$430	3.2¢
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$430	3.2¢
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	—	No	$299	83.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$138	69.0¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$35	3.2¢

Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$19.8k @ 99.1¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?—
Yes$2.1k @ 53.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$430 @ 3.2¢
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$430 @ 3.2¢
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$430 @ 3.2¢
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$430 @ 3.2¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$430 @ 3.2¢
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$430 @ 3.2¢
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$430 @ 3.2¢
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$430 @ 3.2¢
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$430 @ 3.2¢
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$430 @ 3.2¢
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$430 @ 3.2¢
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$430 @ 3.2¢
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$430 @ 3.2¢
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$430 @ 3.2¢
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$430 @ 3.2¢
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?—
No$299 @ 83.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$138 @ 69.0¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$35 @ 3.2¢