0x244d…9bf4

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x244d89e9e053b477dfb6a6cbb17f74345d479bf4
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.9pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

55% @ 48.7¢

Brier

0.141

Resolved

379

Avg size

$25

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	42% (48/115)	+1%	115
Politics	55% (37/67)	+13%	67
Geopolitics	69% (18/26)	+12%	26
Sports	9% (1/11)	-6%	11
Crypto	80% (4/5)	+60%	5
Tech	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other115 bets
Hit rate
42% (48/115)
ROI
+1%
Politics67 bets
Hit rate
55% (37/67)
ROI
+13%
Geopolitics26 bets
Hit rate
69% (18/26)
ROI
+12%
Sports11 bets
Hit rate
9% (1/11)
ROI
-6%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
+60%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

48% hit · 108/227

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	$12	30.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	$15	25.0¢	Lost
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2	1.8¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?	Yes	$1	1.6¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$25	58.1¢	Won
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	No	$5	19.1¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	Yes	$10	11.0¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$24	80.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$22	26.1¢	Lost
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$236	26.2¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$1	3.6¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Biden" 7+ times during Ohio visit?	Yes	$1	14.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$122	76.3¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs	magic	$2	11.0¢	Won
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$5	5.6¢	Lost
Kurds declare independence from Iran?	No	$50	79.1¢	Won
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	$4	10.1¢	Lost
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	$1	1.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to the Nation?	Yes	$3	29.0¢	Lost
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	$181	83.9¢	Won
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$10	30.4¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$89	74.3¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$27	26.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$11	14.7¢	Lost
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	$5	7.3¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$60	73.9¢	Won
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	$5	17.8¢	Lost
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	No	$50	66.1¢	Won
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during Ohio visit?	Yes	$2	30.0¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	No	$52	31.4¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	Yes	$150	69.6¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	Yes	$2	3.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Peace Through Strength" during Address to the Nation?	Yes	$4	36.0¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$40	50.5¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	$52	86.0¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$17	33.3¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	$51	84.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$4	12.9¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	Yes	$20	33.0¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$104	85.8¢	Won
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	No	$29	85.4¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	$54	67.0¢	Lost
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?	Yes	$49	70.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$70	72.5¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	No	$50	84.0¢	Won
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5)	Spurs	$1	15.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	No	$19	53.0¢	Won
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$5	2.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$25	84.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$8	15.0¢	Won

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Lost
Yes$12 @ 30.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Lost
No$15 @ 25.0¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.6¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$25 @ 58.1¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Lost
No$5 @ 19.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Lost
Yes$10 @ 11.0¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$24 @ 80.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$22 @ 26.1¢
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$236 @ 26.2¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.6¢
Will Trump say "Biden" 7+ times during Ohio visit?Lost
Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$122 @ 76.3¢
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana PlayoffsWon
magic$2 @ 11.0¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.6¢
Kurds declare independence from Iran?Won
No$50 @ 79.1¢
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?Lost
No$4 @ 10.1¢
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.3¢
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to the Nation?Lost
Yes$3 @ 29.0¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Won
No$181 @ 83.9¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 30.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$89 @ 74.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$27 @ 26.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 14.7¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 7.3¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$60 @ 73.9¢
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open?Lost
Yes$5 @ 17.8¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Won
No$50 @ 66.1¢
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during Ohio visit?Lost
Yes$2 @ 30.0¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Lost
No$52 @ 31.4¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Won
Yes$150 @ 69.6¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.3¢
Will Trump say "Peace Through Strength" during Address to the Nation?Lost
Yes$4 @ 36.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$40 @ 50.5¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Won
No$52 @ 86.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$17 @ 33.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?Won
No$51 @ 84.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$4 @ 12.9¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Lost
Yes$20 @ 33.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$104 @ 85.8¢
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?Won
No$29 @ 85.4¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Lost
No$54 @ 67.0¢
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?Won
Yes$49 @ 70.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$70 @ 72.5¢
US forces enter Iran by March 14?Won
No$50 @ 84.0¢
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Lost
Spurs$1 @ 15.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Won
No$19 @ 53.0¢
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$25 @ 84.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 15.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$161	62.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$157	73.2¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$114	71.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Politics	No	$100	93.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$73	90.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	No	$70	82.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	No	$69	77.0¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	Sports	No	$61	82.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$57	70.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$52	58.0¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$49	72.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$46	65.0¢
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$41	69.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$37	62.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$27	57.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	Yes	$25	63.0¢
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$8	7.8¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$5	5.0¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$161 @ 62.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$157 @ 73.2¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$114 @ 71.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
No$100 @ 93.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$73 @ 90.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
No$70 @ 82.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
No$69 @ 77.0¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?Sports
No$61 @ 82.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Geopolitics
No$57 @ 70.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$52 @ 58.0¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
No$49 @ 72.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
Yes$46 @ 65.0¢
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?Geopolitics
No$41 @ 69.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$37 @ 62.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$27 @ 57.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
Yes$25 @ 63.0¢
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?Politics
Yes$8 @ 7.8¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$5 @ 5.0¢