0x12b8…479c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x12b8e7c160f3ced67a22b7eadf764cd1c2c4479c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.3pp

ROI

+25%

Win rate

32% @ 30.1¢

Brier

0.074

Resolved

1705

Avg size

$117

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	57% (32/56)	+16%	56
Politics	75% (15/20)	+60%	20
Sports	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+39%	1
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other56 bets
Hit rate
57% (32/56)
ROI
+16%
Politics20 bets
Hit rate
75% (15/20)
ROI
+60%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+39%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

60% hit · 48/80

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	No	$83	1.0¢	Lost
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	No	$27	1.6¢	Lost
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	No	$7.6k	94.8¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in September?	No	$30	98.6¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in September?	No	$13	99.0¢	Won
Will Netherlands win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?	No	$235	4.7¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$127	34.0¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?	Yes	$168	84.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$830	20.7¢	Won
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?	No	$481	60.4¢	Lost
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	No	$92	88.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	No	$13	81.0¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	$1.9k	60.4¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$4.1k	25.6¢	Lost
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$150	0.2¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.9k	46.3¢	Won
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?	Yes	$36.7k	86.1¢	Won
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition	Yes	$182	83.5¢	Won
Will Trump say "Make Iran Great Again" during WEF Address on January 21?	No	$306	80.6¢	Won
Starmer out by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$113	1.4¢	Lost
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?	No	$610	3.6¢	Lost
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	$278	2.8¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$480	57.8¢	Won
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?	Yes	$37	1.5¢	Lost
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$9	9.0¢	Lost
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Usyk	$1.1k	87.8¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	$4.1k	76.8¢	Won
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?	Yes	$10	9.8¢	Won
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	No	$634	63.4¢	Won
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	$9.7k	35.9¢	Won
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?	Yes	$0	25.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?	No	$42.0k	81.6¢	Won
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	$106	1.0¢	Lost
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	$9.9k	86.4¢	Won
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31?	Yes	$1.0k	32.2¢	Lost
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	Yes	$1.6k	8.1¢	Lost
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam?	No	$3.1k	88.6¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	$1.5k	71.7¢	Won
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	$1.2k	70.7¢	Lost
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged?	No	$3.3k	66.2¢	Won
Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?	No	$6	0.3¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$7.4k	71.5¢	Won
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$2.1k	84.6¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	$948	9.0¢	Lost
Will Germany win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$2	6.0¢	Lost
Will the United States win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Will Canada win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$2	6.0¢	Lost
Will Canada win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$666	3.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	44.2¢	Lost

Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Lost
No$83 @ 1.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Lost
No$27 @ 1.6¢
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?Won
No$7.6k @ 94.8¢
Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in September?Won
No$30 @ 98.6¢
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in September?Won
No$13 @ 99.0¢
Will Netherlands win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?Lost
No$235 @ 4.7¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$127 @ 34.0¢
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?Won
Yes$168 @ 84.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$830 @ 20.7¢
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Lost
No$481 @ 60.4¢
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?Won
No$92 @ 88.0¢
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?Won
No$13 @ 81.0¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
No$1.9k @ 60.4¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$4.1k @ 25.6¢
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$150 @ 0.2¢
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$2.9k @ 46.3¢
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?Won
Yes$36.7k @ 86.1¢
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell EditionWon
Yes$182 @ 83.5¢
Will Trump say "Make Iran Great Again" during WEF Address on January 21?Won
No$306 @ 80.6¢
Starmer out by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$113 @ 1.4¢
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?Lost
No$610 @ 3.6¢
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?Lost
Yes$278 @ 2.8¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$480 @ 57.8¢
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?Lost
Yes$37 @ 1.5¢
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$9 @ 9.0¢
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico VerhoevenWon
Usyk$1.1k @ 87.8¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Won
Yes$4.1k @ 76.8¢
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?Won
Yes$10 @ 9.8¢
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?Won
No$634 @ 63.4¢
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Won
Yes$9.7k @ 35.9¢
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?Lost
Yes$0 @ 25.0¢
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?Won
No$42.0k @ 81.6¢
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?Lost
No$106 @ 1.0¢
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?Won
Yes$9.9k @ 86.4¢
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 32.2¢
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?Lost
Yes$1.6k @ 8.1¢
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam?Won
No$3.1k @ 88.6¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?Won
No$1.5k @ 71.7¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Lost
No$1.2k @ 70.7¢
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged?Won
No$3.3k @ 66.2¢
Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?Lost
No$6 @ 0.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$7.4k @ 71.5¢
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$2.1k @ 84.6¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Lost
Yes$948 @ 9.0¢
Will Germany win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$2 @ 6.0¢
Will the United States win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will Canada win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$2 @ 6.0¢
Will Canada win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$666 @ 3.0¢
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 44.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$38.2k	97.1¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$30.0k	95.9¢
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?	Politics	No	$6.3k	91.7¢
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?	Politics	No	$4.7k	82.4¢
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Crypto	No	$3.8k	93.9¢
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$2.9k	41.9¢
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$2.9k	95.5¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Politics	No	$2.8k	62.2¢
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$2.5k	50.0¢
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$2.0k	83.7¢
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?	Politics	No	$1.9k	93.4¢
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.8k	92.5¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.6k	95.8¢
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.2k	96.0¢
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	9.3¢
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.0k	91.9¢
Plague pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$940	94.0¢
Macron out by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$899	89.9¢
Canada applies for full EU membership by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$846	95.5¢
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	Politics	No	$783	67.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	No	$760	38.0¢
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$639	95.1¢
Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$514	70.0¢
Trump goes to space in 2026?	Politics	No	$488	97.6¢
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Politics	No	$443	84.4¢
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$309	84.2¢
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$296	0.1¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Politics	No	$251	90.0¢
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$121	95.0¢
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?	Politics	No	$66	55.0¢

Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$38.2k @ 97.1¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
No$30.0k @ 95.9¢
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?Politics
No$6.3k @ 91.7¢
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?Politics
No$4.7k @ 82.4¢
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?Crypto
No$3.8k @ 93.9¢
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$2.9k @ 41.9¢
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$2.9k @ 95.5¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Politics
No$2.8k @ 62.2¢
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$2.5k @ 50.0¢
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?Politics
No$2.0k @ 83.7¢
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?Politics
No$1.9k @ 93.4¢
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.8k @ 92.5¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Politics
No$1.6k @ 95.8¢
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.2k @ 96.0¢
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 9.3¢
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?Politics
No$1.0k @ 91.9¢
Plague pandemic in 2026?Science
No$940 @ 94.0¢
Macron out by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$899 @ 89.9¢
Canada applies for full EU membership by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$846 @ 95.5¢
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?Politics
No$783 @ 67.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
No$760 @ 38.0¢
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$639 @ 95.1¢
Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$514 @ 70.0¢
Trump goes to space in 2026?Politics
No$488 @ 97.6¢
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Politics
No$443 @ 84.4¢
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?Politics
No$309 @ 84.2¢
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$296 @ 0.1¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Politics
No$251 @ 90.0¢
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$121 @ 95.0¢
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?Politics
No$66 @ 55.0¢