0x1062…aea5

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics19 bets

  Hit rate

  89% (17/19)

  ROI

  +22%

• Other6 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (3/6)

  ROI

  +4%

• Geopolitics6 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (6/6)

  ROI

  +24%

• Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$210 @ 44.4¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
  No$190 @ 85.9¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?Lost
  No$148 @ 29.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
  No$418 @ 89.2¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Won
  No$522 @ 87.0¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$300 @ 87.9¢
• Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Won
  No$51 @ 62.0¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?Won
  No$148 @ 74.1¢
• Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?Lost
  No$1 @ 0.1¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
  No$547 @ 76.7¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
  No$700 @ 71.0¢
• Iran leadership change by April 30?Won
  No$200 @ 55.0¢
• US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Won
  No$851 @ 81.0¢
• Iran leadership change by March 31?Won
  No$300 @ 79.7¢
• US forces enter Iran by December 31?Lost
  No$50 @ 40.0¢
• Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?Won
  Yes$300 @ 74.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Won
  No$98 @ 83.0¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$420 @ 84.0¢
• Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$27 @ 88.4¢
• Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Won
  No$80 @ 79.9¢
• Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31?Won
  No$15 @ 95.2¢
• Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by July 31, 2026?Won
  No$35 @ 98.1¢
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$100 @ 91.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
  No$883 @ 72.3¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$375 @ 96.4¢
• Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$100 @ 93.0¢
• Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$18 @ 95.8¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
  No$170 @ 91.7¢
• Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$200 @ 51.8¢
• Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$428 @ 74.3¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Won
  No$300 @ 48.1¢

Current positions

• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
  No$1.3k @ 66.4¢
• Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
  No$1.1k @ 92.7¢
• Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$1000 @ 90.5¢
• Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$999 @ 80.1¢
• Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
  No$419 @ 95.2¢
• Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?Politics
  No$391 @ 93.1¢
• Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
  No$347 @ 90.5¢
• Will Chow Hang-tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
  No$335 @ 91.5¢
• Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
  No$335 @ 95.6¢
• Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$200 @ 92.6¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$200 @ 57.4¢
• Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?Politics
  No$200 @ 94.1¢
• US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
  No$200 @ 88.0¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$200 @ 71.0¢
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$197 @ 46.0¢
• 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
  No$150 @ 88.0¢
• Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
  No$146 @ 95.6¢
• Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
  No$113 @ 88.9¢
• Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?Politics
  No$96 @ 96.2¢
• US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?Politics
  No$91 @ 91.0¢
• Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$78 @ 78.0¢