0x1062…aea5

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics30 bets

  Hit rate

  93% (28/30)

  ROI

  +20%

• Other9 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (6/9)

  ROI

  +7%

• Geopolitics9 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (9/9)

  ROI

  +18%

• Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$210 @ 44.4¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
  No$190 @ 85.9¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?Lost
  No$148 @ 29.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
  No$418 @ 89.2¢
• Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?Won
  No$59 @ 59.0¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Won
  No$522 @ 87.0¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$300 @ 87.9¢
• Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Won
  No$51 @ 62.0¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?Won
  No$148 @ 74.1¢
• Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?Lost
  No$1 @ 0.1¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
  No$547 @ 76.7¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
  No$700 @ 71.0¢
• Iran leadership change by April 30?Won
  No$200 @ 55.0¢
• US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Won
  No$851 @ 81.0¢
• Iran leadership change by March 31?Won
  No$300 @ 79.7¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$100 @ 88.5¢
• US forces enter Iran by December 31?Lost
  No$50 @ 40.0¢
• Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?Won
  Yes$300 @ 74.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Won
  No$98 @ 83.0¢
• Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?Won
  No$46 @ 97.1¢
• Nothing Ever Happens: OctoberWon
  Nothing$100 @ 89.5¢
• Iran invades Kuwait by July 31?Won
  No$513 @ 98.4¢
• Will 260 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?Won
  No$200 @ 96.0¢
• France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$100 @ 99.0¢
• 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseWon
  No$150 @ 88.0¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?Won
  No$100 @ 96.7¢
• Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?Won
  No$96 @ 96.2¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
  No$70 @ 37.9¢
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
  Yes$97 @ 47.0¢
• Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Won
  No$478 @ 95.6¢
• Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Won
  No$888 @ 92.4¢
• Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Won
  No$200 @ 95.6¢
• Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Won
  No$113 @ 88.9¢
• Will Chow Hang-tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Won
  No$335 @ 91.5¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$420 @ 84.0¢
• Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$27 @ 88.4¢
• Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Won
  No$80 @ 79.9¢
• Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31?Won
  No$15 @ 95.2¢
• Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by July 31, 2026?Won
  No$35 @ 98.1¢
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$100 @ 91.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
  No$883 @ 72.3¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$375 @ 96.4¢
• Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$100 @ 93.0¢
• Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$18 @ 95.8¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
  No$170 @ 91.7¢
• Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$200 @ 51.8¢
• Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$428 @ 74.3¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Won
  No$300 @ 48.1¢

Current positions

• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
  No$1.3k @ 66.4¢
• Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$999 @ 80.1¢
• France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$600 @ 95.3¢
• Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?Politics
  Yes$460 @ 79.8¢
• Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
  No$419 @ 95.2¢
• AI bubble burst in 2026?Tech
  No$400 @ 92.0¢
• Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?Politics
  No$391 @ 93.1¢
• Nothing Ever Happens: NovemberGeopolitics
  Nothing$337 @ 95.6¢
• Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?Politics
  No$300 @ 94.3¢
• Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$300 @ 84.0¢
• Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
  No$260 @ 90.5¢
• Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Politics
  No$210 @ 44.4¢
• Will Houthis target Pakistan by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$200 @ 95.0¢
• Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$200 @ 92.6¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$200 @ 57.4¢
• Will Lula da Silva be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Culture
  No$200 @ 94.9¢
• Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Politics
  No$200 @ 51.8¢
• Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
  No$200 @ 94.0¢
• US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
  No$200 @ 88.0¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$200 @ 71.0¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
  No$200 @ 57.0¢
• Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$187 @ 90.5¢
• Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?Politics
  No$152 @ 90.0¢
• Will Mojtaba Khamenei be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Culture
  No$150 @ 96.0¢
• Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Culture
  No$100 @ 96.3¢
• Nothing Ever Happens: OctoberGeopolitics
  Nothing$100 @ 89.5¢
• Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
  No$100 @ 86.0¢
• AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?Tech
  No$100 @ 73.0¢
• US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?Politics
  No$91 @ 91.0¢
• Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$78 @ 78.0¢