0xfd5a…aa7a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfd5a25def796ca377e5b22fb7b60e3007d40aa7a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.0pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

54% @ 45.9¢

Brier

0.165

Resolved

538

Avg size

$15

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	52% (46/88)	+25%	88
Politics	50% (4/8)	+12%	8
Economy	17% (1/6)	-49%	6

Other88 bets
Hit rate
52% (46/88)
ROI
+25%
Politics8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
+12%
Economy6 bets
Hit rate
17% (1/6)
ROI
-49%

Track record

50% hit · 51/102

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$2	57.0¢	Won
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	Argentina	$1.1k	67.3¢	Won
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	Switzerland	$288	15.2¢	Lost
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?	No	$105	85.4¢	Won
Will England win on 2026-07-11?	No	$606	77.6¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$38	73.4¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$54	19.8¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?	Yes	$44	44.9¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?	Yes	$303	50.1¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	No	$29	17.9¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	Yes	$31	17.8¢	Won
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$187	83.7¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2	0.6¢	Lost
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be greater than 3.5%?	Yes	$2	3.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$8	1.0¢	Lost
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$307	80.5¢	Won
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?	Yes	$74	15.4¢	Lost
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	No	$16	64.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks?	Yes	$2	72.0¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$117	66.1¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	Yes	$7	6.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$11	68.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$31	5.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	$48	5.2¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	No	$53	87.0¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$89	75.0¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$284	44.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	No	$36	52.9¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	Yes	$14	19.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$24	27.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	No	$15	22.8¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$25	49.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$39	17.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$11	80.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	$84	29.9¢	Lost
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$8	40.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$166	83.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$16	2.7¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	Yes	$82	63.9¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	Yes	$45	56.5¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	$35	69.6¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August?	Yes	$142	47.9¢	Won
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in August?	Yes	$52	36.4¢	Lost
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	Argentina	$51	24.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	No	$43	83.4¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	Yes	$7	34.9¢	Lost
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?	Yes	$256	24.5¢	Lost
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$170	57.9¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	Yes	$42	33.7¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?	Yes	$47	38.9¢	Won

Argentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to ScoreWon
Yes$2 @ 57.0¢
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to AdvanceWon
Argentina$1.1k @ 67.3¢
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to AdvanceLost
Switzerland$288 @ 15.2¢
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?Won
No$105 @ 85.4¢
Will England win on 2026-07-11?Won
No$606 @ 77.6¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$38 @ 73.4¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$54 @ 19.8¢
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?Won
Yes$44 @ 44.9¢
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?Lost
Yes$303 @ 50.1¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
No$29 @ 17.9¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Won
Yes$31 @ 17.8¢
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$187 @ 83.7¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.6¢
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be greater than 3.5%?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$8 @ 1.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
No$307 @ 80.5¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?Lost
Yes$74 @ 15.4¢
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Won
No$16 @ 64.9¢
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks?Lost
Yes$2 @ 72.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$117 @ 66.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 6.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$11 @ 68.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$31 @ 5.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?Lost
Yes$48 @ 5.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Lost
No$53 @ 87.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$89 @ 75.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$284 @ 44.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?Won
No$36 @ 52.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?Lost
Yes$14 @ 19.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$24 @ 27.0¢
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?Won
No$15 @ 22.8¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$25 @ 49.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$39 @ 17.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$11 @ 80.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$84 @ 29.9¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 40.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$166 @ 83.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$16 @ 2.7¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Won
Yes$82 @ 63.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?Won
Yes$45 @ 56.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Won
Yes$35 @ 69.6¢
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August?Won
Yes$142 @ 47.9¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in August?Lost
Yes$52 @ 36.4¢
England vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceWon
Argentina$51 @ 24.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?Won
No$43 @ 83.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?Lost
Yes$7 @ 34.9¢
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?Lost
Yes$256 @ 24.5¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Won
Yes$170 @ 57.9¢
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?Lost
Yes$42 @ 33.7¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?Won
Yes$47 @ 38.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$891	84.0¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$714	85.7¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	—	No	$400	90.8¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	No	$241	86.3¢
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?	—	Yes	$223	89.8¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?	Politics	No	$155	89.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$151	78.0¢
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	Politics	No	$150	91.6¢
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	—	Yes	$138	88.9¢
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	—	Yes	$118	74.1¢
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	—	No	$117	93.3¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$117	73.4¢
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	—	No	$98	74.8¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	—	No	$97	32.1¢
Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$95	94.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	No	$83	67.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in September?	—	Yes	$82	75.6¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19?	—	No	$81	97.9¢
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$75	70.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	—	No	$72	80.0¢
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31	—	Yes	$67	25.2¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$67	67.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$63	53.9¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$62	35.9¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$62	70.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	No	$61	81.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	—	Yes	$61	1.4¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$60	78.4¢
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	—	Yes	$59	40.9¢
Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	—	No	$58	62.9¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$891 @ 84.0¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
No$714 @ 85.7¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?—
No$400 @ 90.8¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
No$241 @ 86.3¢
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?—
Yes$223 @ 89.8¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?Politics
No$155 @ 89.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$151 @ 78.0¢
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Politics
No$150 @ 91.6¢
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?—
Yes$138 @ 88.9¢
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?—
Yes$118 @ 74.1¢
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?—
No$117 @ 93.3¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$117 @ 73.4¢
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?—
No$98 @ 74.8¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?—
No$97 @ 32.1¢
Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$95 @ 94.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
No$83 @ 67.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in September?—
Yes$82 @ 75.6¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19?—
No$81 @ 97.9¢
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?Economy
Yes$75 @ 70.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?—
No$72 @ 80.0¢
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31—
Yes$67 @ 25.2¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$67 @ 67.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$63 @ 53.9¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$62 @ 35.9¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$62 @ 70.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
No$61 @ 81.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?—
Yes$61 @ 1.4¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$60 @ 78.4¢
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?—
Yes$59 @ 40.9¢
Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?—
No$58 @ 62.9¢