0xfd5a…aa7a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfd5a25def796ca377e5b22fb7b60e3007d40aa7a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.6pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

56% @ 52.3¢

Brier

0.187

Resolved

1774

Avg size

$13

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	55% (167/303)	+12%	303
Politics	51% (40/78)	-22%	78
Geopolitics	64% (23/36)	+53%	36
Economy	50% (16/32)	-16%	32
Sports	54% (13/24)	-7%	24
Tech	55% (12/22)	+26%	22
Crypto	67% (2/3)	+11%	3

Other303 bets
Hit rate
55% (167/303)
ROI
+12%
Politics78 bets
Hit rate
51% (40/78)
ROI
-22%
Geopolitics36 bets
Hit rate
64% (23/36)
ROI
+53%
Economy32 bets
Hit rate
50% (16/32)
ROI
-16%
Sports24 bets
Hit rate
54% (13/24)
ROI
-7%
Tech22 bets
Hit rate
55% (12/22)
ROI
+26%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+11%

Track record

55% hit · 273/498

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	$159	86.0¢	Won
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	$26	93.0¢	Won
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Yes	$25	27.5¢	Lost
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?	Yes	$9	52.9¢	Lost
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$6	15.0¢	Lost
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	$20	81.2¢	Won
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$20	29.7¢	Lost
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?	Yes	$28	15.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	$9	36.7¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$58	57.5¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	$29	86.3¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	$27	21.3¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	$26	74.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$15	24.0¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$21	66.7¢	Won
Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31?	No	$11	52.6¢	Lost
Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31?	Yes	$14	73.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	$36	85.0¢	Won
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$138	88.9¢	Won
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	No	$32	59.0¢	Lost
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	$3	41.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$7	35.0¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$67	47.0¢	Won
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?	Yes	$11	49.3¢	Won
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	$15	37.2¢	Won
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	No	$1	7.7¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	$4	94.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	$24	24.5¢	Lost
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	No	$47	64.8¢	Won
Will UK annual inflation be between 3.1% and 3.3% in September?	No	$36	76.5¢	Won
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	No	$10	87.0¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in September?	No	$1	93.7¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in September?	No	$23	97.0¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in September?	Yes	$11	33.0¢	Lost
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	Yes	$4	43.0¢	Lost
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in September?	Yes	$5	21.7¢	Lost
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	$3	61.0¢	Lost
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	Yes	$13	35.3¢	Won
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September?	No	$7	88.0¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?	No	$3	75.0¢	Lost
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?	Yes	$16	39.0¢	Won
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September?	Yes	$2	49.0¢	Lost
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$67	67.0¢	Won
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	$5	21.0¢	Lost
Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?	No	$75	77.6¢	Won
Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?	Yes	$2	7.0¢	Lost
Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini	Matteo Berrettini	$3	57.0¢	Lost
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$9	59.6¢	Won
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	$204	64.9¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$3	78.0¢	Lost

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
Yes$159 @ 86.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Won
No$26 @ 93.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Lost
Yes$25 @ 27.5¢
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?Lost
Yes$9 @ 52.9¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 15.0¢
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Won
No$20 @ 81.2¢
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 29.7¢
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?Lost
Yes$28 @ 15.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Won
No$9 @ 36.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$58 @ 57.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Won
No$29 @ 86.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Lost
No$27 @ 21.3¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Won
No$26 @ 74.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 24.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Won
Yes$21 @ 66.7¢
Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31?Lost
No$11 @ 52.6¢
Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31?Won
Yes$14 @ 73.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?Won
Yes$36 @ 85.0¢
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$138 @ 88.9¢
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?Lost
No$32 @ 59.0¢
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 41.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$7 @ 35.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$67 @ 47.0¢
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?Won
Yes$11 @ 49.3¢
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?Won
Yes$15 @ 37.2¢
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?Won
No$1 @ 7.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Won
Yes$4 @ 94.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Lost
No$24 @ 24.5¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?Won
No$47 @ 64.8¢
Will UK annual inflation be between 3.1% and 3.3% in September?Won
No$36 @ 76.5¢
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?Won
No$10 @ 87.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in September?Won
No$1 @ 93.7¢
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in September?Won
No$23 @ 97.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in September?Lost
Yes$11 @ 33.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?Lost
Yes$4 @ 43.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in September?Lost
Yes$5 @ 21.7¢
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?Lost
No$3 @ 61.0¢
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?Won
Yes$13 @ 35.3¢
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September?Won
No$7 @ 88.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?Lost
No$3 @ 75.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?Won
Yes$16 @ 39.0¢
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September?Lost
Yes$2 @ 49.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$67 @ 67.0¢
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?Lost
Yes$5 @ 21.0¢
Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?Won
No$75 @ 77.6¢
Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?Lost
Yes$2 @ 7.0¢
Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo BerrettiniLost
Matteo Berrettini$3 @ 57.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$9 @ 59.6¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?Won
Yes$204 @ 64.9¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 78.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$1000	84.2¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$997	86.9¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	Culture	No	$400	90.8¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$308	64.9¢
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	Politics	No	$294	92.2¢
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Sports	Yes	$280	12.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$278	79.3¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$254	35.9¢
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$254	34.1¢
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$165	57.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$151	78.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$136	28.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$132	50.2¢
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$118	74.1¢
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Tech	No	$117	93.3¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$117	73.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$104	80.0¢
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Tech	No	$98	74.8¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$97	23.9¢
Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$95	94.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$89	68.9¢
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$75	70.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$75	31.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Politics	No	$72	80.0¢
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31	Politics	Yes	$67	25.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$66	60.0¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$62	70.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	No	$61	81.7¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$61	71.8¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$60	78.4¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$1000 @ 84.2¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
No$997 @ 86.9¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?Culture
No$400 @ 90.8¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$308 @ 64.9¢
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Politics
No$294 @ 92.2¢
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Sports
Yes$280 @ 12.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$278 @ 79.3¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$254 @ 35.9¢
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$254 @ 34.1¢
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$165 @ 57.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$151 @ 78.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$136 @ 28.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$132 @ 50.2¢
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$118 @ 74.1¢
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Tech
No$117 @ 93.3¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$117 @ 73.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Tech
No$104 @ 80.0¢
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Tech
No$98 @ 74.8¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$97 @ 23.9¢
Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$95 @ 94.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Politics
No$89 @ 68.9¢
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?Economy
Yes$75 @ 70.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$75 @ 31.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
No$72 @ 80.0¢
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31Politics
Yes$67 @ 25.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$66 @ 60.0¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$62 @ 70.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
No$61 @ 81.7¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$61 @ 71.8¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$60 @ 78.4¢