0xf6d2…7048

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf6d2a8cdbb8778a6149153da3c24d8e462e47048
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+17.8pp

ROI

+116%

Win rate

31% @ 13.6¢

Brier

0.201

Resolved

506

Avg size

$38

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	17% (6/35)	+103%	35
Politics	13% (2/15)	+224%	15
Tech	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Sports	50% (1/2)	+467%	2
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other35 bets
Hit rate
17% (6/35)
ROI
+103%
Politics15 bets
Hit rate
13% (2/15)
ROI
+224%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+467%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

16% hit · 9/56

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$19	1.9¢	Lost
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	Yes	$780	76.2¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	No	$154	8.2¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
US bank failure by July 31?	No	$10	0.1¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$8	0.2¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$794	12.3¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$101	12.7¢	Lost
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	$444	9.3¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	Yes	$1.1k	32.0¢	Lost
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?	No	$22	21.6¢	Lost
Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?	No	$703	66.2¢	Won
Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?	Yes	$652	39.8¢	Lost
Will Meta say "Advertising" during earnings call?	No	$22	16.3¢	Lost
Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?	No	$1.6k	4.2¢	Lost
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	$373	30.4¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?	Yes	$90	0.6¢	Lost
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Yes	$1.1k	17.3¢	Won
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?	Yes	$336	9.3¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?	Yes	$878	7.6¢	Lost
Will Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City?	No	$217	20.5¢	Lost
Will Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City?	Yes	$554	72.5¢	Won
Will Microsoft say "Foundry" during earnings call?	No	$35	22.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	$62	12.4¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?	Yes	$61	1.2¢	Lost
Will Wayne Rooney attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?	Yes	$224	11.8¢	Lost
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	No	$2.5k	12.5¢	Won
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?	No	$322	6.1¢	Lost
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	No	$452	1.2¢	Lost
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?	Yes	$90	9.7¢	Lost
Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15?	No	$29	11.7¢	Lost
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	$20	1.9¢	Lost
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$728	30.8¢	Lost
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?	No	$212	4.2¢	Lost
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$250	2.2¢	Lost
Will Matthew Rhys – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a comedy series?	No	$6	9.4¢	Lost
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 24, 2026?	Yes	$0	2.6¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?	No	$81	5.6¢	Lost
Will Apple say "Widget" during earnings call?	Yes	$55	8.6¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?	Yes	$109	12.2¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?	Yes	$676	85.2¢	Won
Will Mike Tapp be the next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?	Yes	$14	0.6¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?	No	$1.9k	24.4¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?	No	$1.4k	32.6¢	Won
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	Yes	$130	4.4¢	Lost
Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after August 2026 meeting?	Yes	$10	0.4¢	Lost
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	Yes	$7	23.7¢	Lost
Will Waymo operate in 5 cities or less on June 30 2026?	Yes	$1	1.4¢	Lost
Will Waymo operate in 7 cities on June 30 2026?	Yes	$1	2.4¢	Lost
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?	No	$161	3.5¢	Lost

NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$19 @ 1.9¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Won
Yes$780 @ 76.2¢
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?Lost
No$154 @ 8.2¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
US bank failure by July 31?Lost
No$10 @ 0.1¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.2¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$794 @ 12.3¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$101 @ 12.7¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Lost
Yes$444 @ 9.3¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 32.0¢
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?Lost
No$22 @ 21.6¢
Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?Won
No$703 @ 66.2¢
Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?Lost
Yes$652 @ 39.8¢
Will Meta say "Advertising" during earnings call?Lost
No$22 @ 16.3¢
Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?Lost
No$1.6k @ 4.2¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Lost
No$373 @ 30.4¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?Lost
Yes$90 @ 0.6¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 17.3¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?Lost
Yes$336 @ 9.3¢
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?Lost
Yes$878 @ 7.6¢
Will Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City?Lost
No$217 @ 20.5¢
Will Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City?Won
Yes$554 @ 72.5¢
Will Microsoft say "Foundry" during earnings call?Lost
No$35 @ 22.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Lost
No$62 @ 12.4¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?Lost
Yes$61 @ 1.2¢
Will Wayne Rooney attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?Lost
Yes$224 @ 11.8¢
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Won
No$2.5k @ 12.5¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?Lost
No$322 @ 6.1¢
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?Lost
No$452 @ 1.2¢
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?Lost
Yes$90 @ 9.7¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15?Lost
No$29 @ 11.7¢
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?Lost
No$20 @ 1.9¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$728 @ 30.8¢
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?Lost
No$212 @ 4.2¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$250 @ 2.2¢
Will Matthew Rhys – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a comedy series?Lost
No$6 @ 9.4¢
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.6¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?Lost
No$81 @ 5.6¢
Will Apple say "Widget" during earnings call?Lost
Yes$55 @ 8.6¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?Lost
Yes$109 @ 12.2¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Won
Yes$676 @ 85.2¢
Will Mike Tapp be the next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?Lost
Yes$14 @ 0.6¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Won
No$1.9k @ 24.4¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?Won
No$1.4k @ 32.6¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Lost
Yes$130 @ 4.4¢
Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after August 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.4¢
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?Lost
Yes$7 @ 23.7¢
Will Waymo operate in 5 cities or less on June 30 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.4¢
Will Waymo operate in 7 cities on June 30 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.4¢
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?Lost
No$161 @ 3.5¢

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