0xf2a3…8a8d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf2a3aee3e288d216c69c9c3d956ac75e1bb88a8d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+17.8pp

ROI

+21%

Win rate

90% @ 72.7¢

Brier

0.100

Resolved

105

Avg size

$22

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	77% (17/22)	+5%	22
Other	83% (15/18)	+19%	18
Sports	88% (7/8)	+11%	8
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+32%	2
Culture	100% (1/1)	+5%	1

Politics22 bets
Hit rate
77% (17/22)
ROI
+5%
Other18 bets
Hit rate
83% (15/18)
ROI
+19%
Sports8 bets
Hit rate
88% (7/8)
ROI
+11%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+32%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+5%

Track record

82% hit · 42/51

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	No	$100	98.6¢	Won
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?	No	$140	77.0¢	Lost
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$30	59.7¢	Lost
Will Partha Dasgupta win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	No	$10	94.9¢	Won
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	$5	80.0¢	Won
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	$5	89.0¢	Lost
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$15	68.0¢	Won
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$20	74.2¢	Won
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$5	89.0¢	Won
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?	No	$20	68.5¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$163	70.9¢	Won
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	$20	90.0¢	Won
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	No	$10	85.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$177	80.3¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	$27	72.5¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$318	85.8¢	Won
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	No	$5	69.7¢	Won
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	$63	82.9¢	Won
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?	Yes	$10	38.0¢	Lost
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	$5	28.7¢	Lost
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$22	51.2¢	Won
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	$6	82.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$20	77.0¢	Won
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	$7	84.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$96	68.2¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$24	75.0¢	Won
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$5	69.9¢	Won
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$30	72.7¢	Won
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?	Yes	$10	59.0¢	Won
US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026?	No	$15	84.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	$395	73.2¢	Won
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	$83	67.5¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	No	$91	78.4¢	Won
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	$15	58.0¢	Lost
Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	$10	62.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	$287	89.5¢	Won
France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by September 30, 2026?	No	$100	97.7¢	Won
Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?	No	$91	89.3¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	$200	96.5¢	Won
Will CDU win less than 8% of all valid second votes?	Yes	$20	89.0¢	Won
Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	$107	87.5¢	Won
Will AfD win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	$30	60.4¢	Won
Will Grüne win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	$32	82.0¢	Won
Berlin State Election: More Votes to CDU or SPD?	CDU	$68	90.3¢	Won
Will AfD win the most seats in 1 German state election in September 2026?	Yes	$20	45.7¢	Lost
Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026?	Yes	$38	81.3¢	Won
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	$85	52.7¢	Won
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	$20	83.9¢	Won
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	$60	94.8¢	Won
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	$138	86.9¢	Won

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 98.6¢
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?Lost
No$140 @ 77.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$30 @ 59.7¢
Will Partha Dasgupta win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?Won
No$10 @ 94.9¢
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?Won
Yes$5 @ 80.0¢
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?Lost
Yes$5 @ 89.0¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Won
Yes$15 @ 68.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$20 @ 74.2¢
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?Won
Yes$5 @ 89.0¢
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?Won
No$20 @ 68.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$163 @ 70.9¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?Won
No$20 @ 90.0¢
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Won
No$10 @ 85.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$177 @ 80.3¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Won
No$27 @ 72.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$318 @ 85.8¢
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 69.7¢
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Won
Yes$63 @ 82.9¢
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?Lost
Yes$10 @ 38.0¢
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Lost
Yes$5 @ 28.7¢
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Won
Yes$22 @ 51.2¢
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?Won
Yes$6 @ 82.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$20 @ 77.0¢
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?Won
Yes$7 @ 84.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$96 @ 68.2¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$24 @ 75.0¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$5 @ 69.9¢
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$30 @ 72.7¢
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?Won
Yes$10 @ 59.0¢
US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026?Won
No$15 @ 84.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Won
No$395 @ 73.2¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$83 @ 67.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Won
No$91 @ 78.4¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?Lost
Yes$15 @ 58.0¢
Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?Won
Yes$10 @ 62.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Won
No$287 @ 89.5¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by September 30, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 97.7¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?Won
No$91 @ 89.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Won
No$200 @ 96.5¢
Will CDU win less than 8% of all valid second votes?Won
Yes$20 @ 89.0¢
Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Won
Yes$107 @ 87.5¢
Will AfD win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Won
Yes$30 @ 60.4¢
Will Grüne win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Won
Yes$32 @ 82.0¢
Berlin State Election: More Votes to CDU or SPD?Won
CDU$68 @ 90.3¢
Will AfD win the most seats in 1 German state election in September 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 45.7¢
Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026?Won
Yes$38 @ 81.3¢
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Won
Yes$85 @ 52.7¢
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Won
No$20 @ 83.9¢
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Won
No$60 @ 94.8¢
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Won
No$138 @ 86.9¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Politics	No	$490	92.0¢
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	Politics	No	$180	86.3¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$155	86.1¢
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	—	Yes	$145	79.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$140	58.3¢
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?	Politics	No	$108	95.9¢
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$106	87.2¢
Will Linke be in the next Berlin state government?	Politics	Yes	$100	90.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	No	$85	79.5¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$80	94.3¢
Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government?	Politics	Yes	$80	87.8¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	Politics	No	$79	71.5¢
Will Grüne be in the next Berlin state government?	Politics	Yes	$70	97.5¢
Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	—	No	$65	89.0¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Politics	No	$60	86.0¢
Will Linke be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?	Politics	Yes	$60	95.4¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$54	86.7¢
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?	Politics	No	$52	93.6¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026	Politics	No	$50	95.9¢
Will Grüne be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?	Politics	Yes	$38	97.6¢
Will at least 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$30	93.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$30	85.0¢
Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	Politics	Yes	$30	51.0¢
Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027?	Politics	No	$20	97.9¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$20	91.0¢
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?	Economy	Yes	$9	44.9¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
No$490 @ 92.0¢
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?Politics
No$180 @ 86.3¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$155 @ 86.1¢
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?—
Yes$145 @ 79.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$140 @ 58.3¢
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?Politics
No$108 @ 95.9¢
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$106 @ 87.2¢
Will Linke be in the next Berlin state government?Politics
Yes$100 @ 90.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
No$85 @ 79.5¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$80 @ 94.3¢
Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government?Politics
Yes$80 @ 87.8¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?Politics
No$79 @ 71.5¢
Will Grüne be in the next Berlin state government?Politics
Yes$70 @ 97.5¢
Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?—
No$65 @ 89.0¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
No$60 @ 86.0¢
Will Linke be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?Politics
Yes$60 @ 95.4¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$54 @ 86.7¢
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?Politics
No$52 @ 93.6¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026Politics
No$50 @ 95.9¢
Will Grüne be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?Politics
Yes$38 @ 97.6¢
Will at least 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$30 @ 93.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$30 @ 85.0¢
Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?Politics
Yes$30 @ 51.0¢
Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027? Politics
No$20 @ 97.9¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$20 @ 91.0¢
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?Economy
Yes$9 @ 44.9¢