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Specialization by sphere

• Politics6 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (6/6)

  ROI

  +20%

• Tech1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +15%

• Other1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +30%

• Geopolitics1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +19%

• Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?Won
  No$320 @ 80.0¢
• Will Walmart (WMT) beat quarterly earnings?Won
  Yes$39 @ 77.0¢
• Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Won
  No$199 @ 54.5¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Won
  Yes$2.0k @ 89.0¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Won
  No$300 @ 86.0¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Won
  Yes$336 @ 84.0¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Won
  No$65 @ 64.8¢
• Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?Won
  Yes$53 @ 89.0¢
• Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?Won
  Yes$201 @ 87.0¢

Current positions

• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?Politics
  Yes$6.0k @ 90.9¢
• Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  No$2.1k @ 81.5¢
• Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$976 @ 97.6¢
• Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
  Yes$912 @ 57.3¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Politics
  Yes$800 @ 76.0¢
• Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?Politics
  Yes$800 @ 83.7¢
• Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
  Yes$622 @ 87.5¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$501 @ 79.3¢
• Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Politics
  Yes$481 @ 96.2¢
• New pandemic in 2026?Geopolitics
  No$470 @ 94.0¢
• US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?Politics
  No$435 @ 87.0¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
  Yes$402 @ 72.7¢
• Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
  No$364 @ 87.0¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
  No$300 @ 86.0¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$300 @ 73.0¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
  No$300 @ 77.2¢
• 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
  No$264 @ 88.0¢
• Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
  No$261 @ 87.0¢
• Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?Politics
  No$254 @ 95.0¢
• US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$231 @ 70.0¢
• Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$230 @ 82.3¢
• Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?Politics
  Yes$179 @ 75.8¢
• 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
  Yes$150 @ 59.0¢
• US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?Politics
  No$100 @ 91.0¢
• Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
  No$100 @ 87.0¢
• Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
  No$81 @ 76.0¢
• Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
  No$52 @ 51.9¢
• Will Trump nationalize elections?Politics
  No$28 @ 89.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$26 @ 94.0¢
• US government bans an open source AI model in 2026?Politics
  No$25 @ 84.0¢