← Smart money
0xeb6f…25f0
SharpEdge
+18.6pp
ROI
+30%
Win rate
58% @ 39.4¢
Brier
0.210
Resolved
3905
Avg size
$529
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 55% (36/66) | +37% | 66 |
| Economy | 54% (7/13) | +14% | 13 |
| Other | 25% (3/12) | -70% | 12 |
| Sports | 40% (4/10) | +17% | 10 |
| Geopolitics | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Politics66 bets
- Hit rate
- 55% (36/66)
- ROI
- +37%
- Economy13 bets
- Hit rate
- 54% (7/13)
- ROI
- +14%
- Other12 bets
- Hit rate
- 25% (3/12)
- ROI
- -70%
- Sports10 bets
- Hit rate
- 40% (4/10)
- ROI
- +17%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
49% hit · 50/102- Yes$615 @ 60.5¢
- No$620 @ 61.0¢
- Yes$2.3k @ 35.2¢
- No$1.8k @ 70.0¢
- No$5.3k @ 20.4¢
- Yes$80 @ 8.0¢
- Yes$624 @ 14.9¢
- No$733 @ 16.0¢
- No$2.9k @ 52.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 43.0¢
- Yes$1.4k @ 72.5¢
- Yes$14.3k @ 94.5¢
- No$590 @ 59.0¢
- No$11.3k @ 94.4¢
- No$92 @ 92.0¢
- No$1.6k @ 81.5¢
- Yes$1.4k @ 81.4¢
- Yes$533 @ 72.3¢
- No$5.3k @ 73.3¢
- No$2.8k @ 46.0¢
- Yes$15.0k @ 43.0¢
- No$11.2k @ 80.0¢
- Yes$431 @ 2.5¢
- Yes$3 @ 50.0¢
- No$236 @ 18.0¢
- Yes$341 @ 75.8¢
- No$37.0k @ 65.7¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 72.0¢
- Mississippi State$1.0k @ 72.0¢
- No$6.5k @ 7.9¢
- Yes$200 @ 0.4¢
- No$702 @ 65.8¢
- Yes$1.2k @ 0.7¢
- Bears$10.6k @ 80.0¢
- Yes$3.0k @ 31.0¢
- Yes$636 @ 2.4¢
- No$4.4k @ 87.2¢
- No$9 @ 86.3¢
- Yes$33 @ 0.6¢
- Cabo Verde$4.6k @ 7.6¢
- Yes$291 @ 1.5¢
- Yes$10.0k @ 75.3¢
- No$4.4k @ 86.8¢
- No$3.7k @ 12.8¢
- Yes$4.7k @ 83.1¢
- Yes$74 @ 13.0¢
- No$4.0k @ 54.6¢
- Yes$24.2k @ 52.8¢
- Yes$212 @ 0.2¢
- No$17.3k @ 80.2¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $4.3k | 74.1¢ |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Politics | No | $3.5k | 74.7¢ |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Politics | Yes | $2.4k | 34.8¢ |
| Will the Jacksonville Jaguars make the 2027 NFL Playoffs? | Sports | Yes | $1.0k | 54.6¢ |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Politics | Yes | $554 | 2.8¢ |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | Politics | No | $370 | 74.0¢ |
| Will Marco Rubio announce a presidential run before 2028? | Politics | No | $33 | 59.8¢ |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | Politics | Yes | $0 | 76.0¢ |
- Yes$4.3k @ 74.1¢
- No$3.5k @ 74.7¢
- Yes$2.4k @ 34.8¢
- Yes$1.0k @ 54.6¢
- Yes$554 @ 2.8¢
- No$370 @ 74.0¢
- No$33 @ 59.8¢
- Yes$0 @ 76.0¢