0xe7f4…bc90

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xe7f478abde9a924f7c9026b3c0107ee93bd9bc90
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.8pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

30% @ 19.9¢

Brier

0.101

Resolved

Avg size

$340

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	23% (5/22)	-5%	22
Politics	80% (8/10)	+64%	10
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+45%	1
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other22 bets
Hit rate
23% (5/22)
ROI
-5%
Politics10 bets
Hit rate
80% (8/10)
ROI
+64%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+45%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

41% hit · 14/34

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines	Tennessee Volunteers	$20	25.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	No	$1.1k	64.8¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$2.0k	76.0¢	Won
Trump out as President by April 30?	Yes	$144	1.5¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	No	$30	0.2¢	Lost
North Dakota State Bison vs. Michigan State Spartans	North Dakota State Bison	$10	8.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$141	10.0¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	$26	0.3¢	Lost
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$100	38.3¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$1000	69.0¢	Won
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Yes	$102	10.9¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	No	$84	0.1¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	$454	16.7¢	Lost
Warriors vs. Suns	Warriors	$200	38.5¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	No	$1.3k	33.1¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$57	13.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$431	57.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?	No	$2.2k	49.9¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	No	$500	79.0¢	Won
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$221	66.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$1.1k	48.9¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	$1.3k	13.9¢	Lost
James Comey mugshot released by May 5?	Yes	$491	9.9¢	Lost
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Yes	$31	8.2¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	$680	26.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 18?	Yes	$30	27.7¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	$1.5k	14.3¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	No	$738	73.9¢	Won
Netanyahu out by April 30?	Yes	$70	4.1¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	$4.9k	63.7¢	Won
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$119	1.8¢	Lost
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$3.2k	74.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?	Yes	$10	5.1¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$196	0.4¢	Lost

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan WolverinesLost
Tennessee Volunteers$20 @ 25.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Won
No$1.1k @ 64.8¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$2.0k @ 76.0¢
Trump out as President by April 30?Lost
Yes$144 @ 1.5¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Lost
No$30 @ 0.2¢
North Dakota State Bison vs. Michigan State SpartansLost
North Dakota State Bison$10 @ 8.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$141 @ 10.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
No$26 @ 0.3¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$100 @ 38.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$1000 @ 69.0¢
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?Lost
Yes$102 @ 10.9¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Lost
No$84 @ 0.1¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Lost
Yes$454 @ 16.7¢
Warriors vs. SunsLost
Warriors$200 @ 38.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Won
No$1.3k @ 33.1¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$57 @ 13.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$431 @ 57.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?Won
No$2.2k @ 49.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?Won
No$500 @ 79.0¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$221 @ 66.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$1.1k @ 48.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 13.9¢
James Comey mugshot released by May 5?Lost
Yes$491 @ 9.9¢
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?Lost
Yes$31 @ 8.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?Won
No$680 @ 26.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 18?Lost
Yes$30 @ 27.7¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 14.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?Won
No$738 @ 73.9¢
Netanyahu out by April 30?Lost
Yes$70 @ 4.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?Won
No$4.9k @ 63.7¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Lost
No$119 @ 1.8¢
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$3.2k @ 74.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?Lost
Yes$10 @ 5.1¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$196 @ 0.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$1.1k	8.4¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	—	No	$940	47.0¢
NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?	Sports	Yes	$714	19.2¢
Trump out as President by July 31?	—	Yes	$408	1.5¢

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics
No$1.1k @ 8.4¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?—
No$940 @ 47.0¢
NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?Sports
Yes$714 @ 19.2¢
Trump out as President by July 31?—
Yes$408 @ 1.5¢