0xe7f4…bc90

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xe7f478abde9a924f7c9026b3c0107ee93bd9bc90
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.8pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

30% @ 19.9¢

Brier

0.101

Resolved

Avg size

$340

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	38% (9/24)	+18%	24
Other	21% (5/24)	-17%	24
Sports	0% (0/8)	-100%	8
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+45%	1
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics24 bets
Hit rate
38% (9/24)
ROI
+18%
Other24 bets
Hit rate
21% (5/24)
ROI
-17%
Sports8 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/8)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+45%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

26% hit · 15/58

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$96	8.5¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$940	47.0¢	Lost
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$100	2.5¢	Lost
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$95	1.6¢	Lost
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$200	10.0¢	Lost
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$72	5.4¢	Lost
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$141	4.9¢	Lost
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$579	8.3¢	Lost
Trump out as President by July 31?	Yes	$210	1.5¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	$1.5k	35.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	64.7¢	Won
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$11	0.4¢	Lost
Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	$100	3.2¢	Lost
Trump out as President by June 30?	Yes	$168	1.5¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	$1.1k	5.3¢	Lost
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?	Yes	$647	5.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$1.0k	18.7¢	Lost
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	$100	3.9¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	No	$16	0.2¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	$599	4.2¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	Yes	$500	17.0¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$489	17.3¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	$202	14.0¢	Lost
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	$500	16.4¢	Lost
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines	Tennessee Volunteers	$20	25.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	No	$1.1k	64.8¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$2.0k	76.0¢	Won
Trump out as President by April 30?	Yes	$144	1.5¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	No	$30	0.2¢	Lost
North Dakota State Bison vs. Michigan State Spartans	North Dakota State Bison	$10	8.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$141	10.0¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	$26	0.3¢	Lost
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$100	38.3¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$1000	69.0¢	Won
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Yes	$102	10.9¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	No	$84	0.1¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	$454	16.7¢	Lost
Warriors vs. Suns	Warriors	$200	38.5¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	No	$1.3k	33.1¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$57	13.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$431	57.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?	No	$2.2k	49.9¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	No	$500	79.0¢	Won
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$221	66.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$1.1k	48.9¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	$1.3k	13.9¢	Lost
James Comey mugshot released by May 5?	Yes	$491	9.9¢	Lost
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Yes	$31	8.2¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	$680	26.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 18?	Yes	$30	27.7¢	Lost

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$96 @ 8.5¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$940 @ 47.0¢
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$100 @ 2.5¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$95 @ 1.6¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$200 @ 10.0¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$72 @ 5.4¢
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$141 @ 4.9¢
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$579 @ 8.3¢
Trump out as President by July 31?Lost
Yes$210 @ 1.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$1.5k @ 35.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 64.7¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$11 @ 0.4¢
Netanyahu out by June 30?Lost
Yes$100 @ 3.2¢
Trump out as President by June 30?Lost
Yes$168 @ 1.5¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Lost
No$1.1k @ 5.3¢
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?Lost
Yes$647 @ 5.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Lost
No$1.0k @ 18.7¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?Lost
Yes$100 @ 3.9¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Lost
No$16 @ 0.2¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Lost
No$599 @ 4.2¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Lost
Yes$500 @ 17.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Lost
Yes$489 @ 17.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
No$202 @ 14.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Lost
Yes$500 @ 16.4¢
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan WolverinesLost
Tennessee Volunteers$20 @ 25.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Won
No$1.1k @ 64.8¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$2.0k @ 76.0¢
Trump out as President by April 30?Lost
Yes$144 @ 1.5¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Lost
No$30 @ 0.2¢
North Dakota State Bison vs. Michigan State SpartansLost
North Dakota State Bison$10 @ 8.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$141 @ 10.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
No$26 @ 0.3¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$100 @ 38.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$1000 @ 69.0¢
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?Lost
Yes$102 @ 10.9¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Lost
No$84 @ 0.1¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Lost
Yes$454 @ 16.7¢
Warriors vs. SunsLost
Warriors$200 @ 38.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Won
No$1.3k @ 33.1¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$57 @ 13.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$431 @ 57.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?Won
No$2.2k @ 49.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?Won
No$500 @ 79.0¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$221 @ 66.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$1.1k @ 48.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 13.9¢
James Comey mugshot released by May 5?Lost
Yes$491 @ 9.9¢
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?Lost
Yes$31 @ 8.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?Won
No$680 @ 26.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 18?Lost
Yes$30 @ 27.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?	Sports	Yes	$714	19.2¢

NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?Sports
Yes$714 @ 19.2¢