0xe694…7e7c

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other134 bets

  Hit rate

  20% (27/134)

  ROI

  +26%

• Politics86 bets

  Hit rate

  22% (19/86)

  ROI

  -8%

• Economy30 bets

  Hit rate

  40% (12/30)

  ROI

  +13%

• Sports6 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (3/6)

  ROI

  +26%

• Geopolitics6 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (3/6)

  ROI

  -39%

• Tech4 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/4)

  ROI

  -100%

• Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?Lost
  No$5 @ 12.3¢
• Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?Won
  No$4 @ 75.0¢
• Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 19.0¢
• Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Lost
  No$7 @ 4.3¢
• Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$4 @ 14.6¢
• Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.9–1.0%?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
• Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Won
  Yes$408 @ 48.4¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
  Yes$2 @ 36.0¢
• Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?Won
  No$4 @ 76.5¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Lost
  Yes$12 @ 15.9¢
• Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 8.8¢
• Will Keiko Fujimori finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
• Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
  Yes$24 @ 3.1¢
• Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 5.5¢
• Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
• Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
• Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$4 @ 1.2¢
• Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 2.1¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 7?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 2.7¢
• Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
  Yes$49 @ 72.2¢
• Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 5.7¢
• Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?Lost
  Yes$12 @ 2.8¢
• US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
  No$1 @ 10.0¢
• Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
  No$4 @ 87.7¢
• Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 1.4¢
• Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Won
  Yes$1 @ 11.0¢
• Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?Lost
  No$1 @ 3.7¢
• Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?Won
  Yes$13 @ 87.7¢
• Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Lost
  No$154 @ 59.4¢
• Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Won
  Yes$121 @ 38.0¢
• Will GERB-SDS (GERB–SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
• Will Roberto Chiabra finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
• Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Lost
  No$15 @ 38.5¢
• Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Won
  Yes$14 @ 67.0¢
• Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 4.4¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
• Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 6.4¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
  Yes$3 @ 60.0¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 0.7¢
• Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 1.7¢
• Will Yonhy Lescano finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
• Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 5.7¢
• Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?Lost
  Yes$21 @ 7.7¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
  No$4 @ 80.0¢
• Will Mario Vizcarra finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
• Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 7.2¢
• Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 1.2¢
• Will France come in last place at Eurovision 2026?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 0.7¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Lost
  No$1 @ 5.1¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?Lost
  No$13 @ 7.6¢

Current positions

• Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  No$2.0k @ 50.0¢
• Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$2.0k @ 50.0¢
• Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  No$202 @ 95.0¢
• Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Economy
  No$66 @ 83.9¢
• Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Economy
  No$64 @ 83.2¢
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$60 @ 46.1¢
• Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Economy
  No$51 @ 67.5¢
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$38 @ 17.3¢
• Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?Politics
  Yes$32 @ 70.8¢
• Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Economy
  Yes$27 @ 12.7¢
• Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Economy
  Yes$24 @ 8.6¢
• Will 5 or more Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Economy
  Yes$23 @ 10.0¢
• Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  No$21 @ 98.7¢
• Israeli election results in a hung parliament?Politics
  No$17 @ 68.1¢
• Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
  Yes$16 @ 91.0¢
• Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?Politics
  Yes$14 @ 23.7¢
• Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  No$12 @ 80.1¢
• Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  Yes$12 @ 40.1¢
• Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$11 @ 5.9¢
• Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Economy
  Yes$11 @ 9.3¢
• Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?Economy
  Yes$11 @ 13.0¢
• Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  Yes$10 @ 0.3¢
• Will Unity win less than 0.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
  Yes$9 @ 94.2¢
• Will Otzma win 10 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
  No$8 @ 80.0¢
• Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?Politics
  Yes$8 @ 79.8¢
• Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Economy
  Yes$8 @ 9.3¢
• Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Economy
  Yes$7 @ 13.2¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$6 @ 8.4¢
• Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win less than 3.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
  No$5 @ 86.0¢
• Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$5 @ 2.4¢