0xde7b…5f4b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+16.1pp

ROI

+20%

Win rate

42% @ 26.1¢

Brier

0.195

Resolved

332

Avg size

$732

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	33% (7/21)	-27%	21
Other	50% (4/8)	-22%	8
Sports	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Geopolitics	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+176%	2

Politics21 bets
Hit rate
33% (7/21)
ROI
-27%
Other8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
-22%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+176%

Track record

34% hit · 12/35

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$126.1k	11.5¢	Lost
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?	Yes	$8.4k	30.7¢	Lost
Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08?	No	$823	5.5¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$49.9k	33.7¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$3.7k	14.9¢	Lost
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?	No	$9.6k	38.0¢	Lost
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?	Yes	$107	46.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$124	2.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$30.0k	32.3¢	Won
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	$192	3.1¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$7.1k	18.1¢	Won
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$3.7k	33.5¢	Won
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?	No	$3.0k	18.6¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	$221	3.3¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$5.5k	27.5¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	$2.9k	1.9¢	Lost
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$7.6k	49.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$1.5k	8.9¢	Lost
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	$6.4k	84.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$9.1k	8.1¢	Lost
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?	Yes	$8.1k	79.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$6.1k	61.9¢	Lost
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	$4.6k	5.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$1.2k	22.9¢	Won
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	$1.9k	4.0¢	Lost
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	$16.5k	33.0¢	Lost
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?	Yes	$310	44.0¢	Won
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	$831	62.8¢	Won
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	$3.5k	5.0¢	Lost
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?	No	$19	55.0¢	Lost
Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	$8.2k	56.9¢	Won
Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	$24.9k	38.0¢	Lost
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$1.2k	48.0¢	Lost
Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?	No	$8.4k	38.3¢	Lost
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	No	$21.3k	59.3¢	Won

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$126.1k @ 11.5¢
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Lost
Yes$8.4k @ 30.7¢
Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08?Lost
No$823 @ 5.5¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$49.9k @ 33.7¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.7k @ 14.9¢
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Lost
No$9.6k @ 38.0¢
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Won
Yes$107 @ 46.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$124 @ 2.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$30.0k @ 32.3¢
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Lost
No$192 @ 3.1¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$7.1k @ 18.1¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$3.7k @ 33.5¢
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?Lost
No$3.0k @ 18.6¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?Lost
Yes$221 @ 3.3¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$5.5k @ 27.5¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Lost
No$2.9k @ 1.9¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$7.6k @ 49.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 8.9¢
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?Won
Yes$6.4k @ 84.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$9.1k @ 8.1¢
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?Won
Yes$8.1k @ 79.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$6.1k @ 61.9¢
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Lost
No$4.6k @ 5.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 22.9¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$1.9k @ 4.0¢
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?Lost
Yes$16.5k @ 33.0¢
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?Won
Yes$310 @ 44.0¢
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Won
Yes$831 @ 62.8¢
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Lost
Yes$3.5k @ 5.0¢
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?Lost
No$19 @ 55.0¢
Spurs vs. ThunderWon
Spurs$8.2k @ 56.9¢
Spurs vs. ThunderLost
Thunder$24.9k @ 38.0¢
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 48.0¢
Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?Lost
No$8.4k @ 38.3¢
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Won
No$21.3k @ 59.3¢

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