0xd453…0c05

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd45315612da4a28efed426de3c1cfa1f4ce80c05
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+6.9pp

ROI

+3%

Win rate

69% @ 62.5¢

Brier

0.158

Resolved

356

Avg size

$15

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	56% (29/52)	-8%	52
Politics	58% (26/45)	+9%	45
Geopolitics	86% (6/7)	+9%	7
Sports	67% (2/3)	+37%	3
Economy	100% (2/2)	+49%	2
Tech	100% (1/1)	+23%	1

Other52 bets
Hit rate
56% (29/52)
ROI
-8%
Politics45 bets
Hit rate
58% (26/45)
ROI
+9%
Geopolitics7 bets
Hit rate
86% (6/7)
ROI
+9%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+37%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+49%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+23%

Track record

60% hit · 66/110

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$71	67.8¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$73	78.0¢	Lost
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	Rockets	$30	35.2¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	Yes	$5	73.0¢	Won
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	$15	68.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	Yes	$5	79.0¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	$5	68.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?	Yes	$15	89.0¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$126	69.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	No	$5	86.8¢	Won
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner	Natus Vincere	$17	75.0¢	Won
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	No	$28	44.0¢	Lost
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-09?	Yes	$10	49.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$45	62.0¢	Won
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	$15	13.8¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	No	$5	65.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$26	66.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$30	55.6¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$40	64.6¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$15	73.2¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$18	45.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	$13	51.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	Yes	$20	67.2¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$134	73.5¢	Won
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	Vitality	$11	70.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	No	$15	56.4¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	No	$27	56.3¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	$12	77.7¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	No	$64	81.1¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	$10	50.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$8	76.0¢	Lost
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)	Spurs	$10	55.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	No	$30	71.7¢	Won
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	$49	58.3¢	Lost
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	$48	67.8¢	Won
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$90	66.9¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	No	$0	0.1¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	No	$24	62.7¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	Yes	$7	78.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$15	51.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$32	55.8¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$102	81.4¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	$5	2.8¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	Yes	$27	71.0¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	$16	81.5¢	Won
Madrid Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Tommy Paul	Tommy Paul	$10	6.0¢	Lost
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	No	$20	54.3¢	Won
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	No	$17	47.0¢	Lost
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	$5	55.0¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	No	$111	76.9¢	Won

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$71 @ 67.8¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$73 @ 78.0¢
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets Lost
Rockets$30 @ 35.2¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Won
Yes$5 @ 73.0¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Won
Yes$15 @ 68.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Won
Yes$5 @ 79.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Won
No$5 @ 68.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?Won
Yes$15 @ 89.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$126 @ 69.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Won
No$5 @ 86.8¢
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 WinnerWon
Natus Vincere$17 @ 75.0¢
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?Lost
No$28 @ 44.0¢
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-09?Won
Yes$10 @ 49.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$45 @ 62.0¢
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersLost
Milwaukee Brewers$15 @ 13.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?Won
No$5 @ 65.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
No$26 @ 66.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$30 @ 55.6¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$40 @ 64.6¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$15 @ 73.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$18 @ 45.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Lost
No$13 @ 51.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Won
Yes$20 @ 67.2¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$134 @ 73.5¢
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group ALost
Vitality$11 @ 70.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?Lost
No$15 @ 56.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Lost
No$27 @ 56.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Won
Yes$12 @ 77.7¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Won
No$64 @ 81.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 50.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 76.0¢
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Won
Spurs$10 @ 55.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?Won
No$30 @ 71.7¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Lost
No$49 @ 58.3¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Won
Yes$48 @ 67.8¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Won
Yes$90 @ 66.9¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Lost
No$0 @ 0.1¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Lost
No$24 @ 62.7¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Won
Yes$7 @ 78.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$15 @ 51.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$32 @ 55.8¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$102 @ 81.4¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?Won
Yes$27 @ 71.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Won
No$16 @ 81.5¢
Madrid Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Tommy PaulLost
Tommy Paul$10 @ 6.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Won
No$20 @ 54.3¢
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?Lost
No$17 @ 47.0¢
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?Won
Yes$5 @ 55.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?Won
No$111 @ 76.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$47	61.4¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$46	78.9¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$43	73.5¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	—	No	$27	83.7¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$26	74.5¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	No	$26	73.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$25	72.9¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$16	55.0¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$13	62.7¢
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?	Politics	No	$11	88.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$5	77.0¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$47 @ 61.4¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$46 @ 78.9¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$43 @ 73.5¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?—
No$27 @ 83.7¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$26 @ 74.5¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
No$26 @ 73.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$25 @ 72.9¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$16 @ 55.0¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$13 @ 62.7¢
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?Politics
No$11 @ 88.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$5 @ 77.0¢