0xd249…10da

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics38 bets

  Hit rate

  66% (25/38)

  ROI

  +23%

• Other9 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (6/9)

  ROI

  +5%

• Geopolitics4 bets

  Hit rate

  75% (3/4)

  ROI

  +7%

• Tech2 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (2/2)

  ROI

  +29%

• Sports2 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/2)

  ROI

  -100%

• Culture1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +16%

• Crypto1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +18%

• Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Lost
  No$9 @ 43.0¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
  No$65 @ 81.0¢
• Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?Won
  Yes$97 @ 58.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$93 @ 32.4¢
• Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?Lost
  No$50 @ 49.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
  Yes$85 @ 30.2¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
  No$119 @ 85.0¢
• Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
  Yes$154 @ 73.0¢
• Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Lost
  No$31 @ 54.0¢
• Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
  No$50 @ 83.7¢
• Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?Won
  No$34 @ 85.0¢
• Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?Won
  No$925 @ 72.1¢
• Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
  No$1.3k @ 77.0¢
• Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$11 @ 31.6¢
• Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Won
  Yes$126 @ 84.2¢
• Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?Lost
  No$5 @ 7.9¢
• Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Won
  No$38 @ 84.1¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
  No$85 @ 77.0¢
• Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
  No$160 @ 40.0¢
• Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
  Yes$728 @ 64.7¢
• Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Won
  No$329 @ 60.8¢
• Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Lost
  No$50 @ 63.0¢
• Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
  No$247 @ 77.5¢
• Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$106 @ 88.7¢
• Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
  No$545 @ 84.1¢
• Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Lost
  No$663 @ 82.6¢
• Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Won
  Yes$17 @ 86.0¢
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
  Yes$56 @ 79.6¢
• Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
  Yes$28 @ 3.7¢
• Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Street" this week?Won
  No$177 @ 84.0¢
• SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Won
  No$12 @ 60.0¢
• Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
  Yes$238 @ 88.2¢
• US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?Lost
  Yes$140 @ 69.8¢
• Will Julie Gonzales be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 7.9¢
• Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Won
  Yes$5 @ 57.0¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
  Yes$52 @ 47.0¢
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
  Yes$249 @ 71.0¢
• Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?Won
  No$186 @ 88.7¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
  Yes$444 @ 50.0¢
• Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?Won
  Yes$51 @ 67.0¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Won
  No$37 @ 74.0¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Won
  No$56 @ 80.1¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 31?Won
  No$146 @ 71.4¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?Lost
  Yes$50 @ 34.9¢
• Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$133 @ 78.5¢
• Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
  Yes$633 @ 71.2¢
• Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
  Yes$285 @ 81.0¢
• Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 34.1¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Won
  No$44 @ 88.3¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Won
  Yes$1.8k @ 78.0¢

Current positions

• Yoon out of custody before 2027?Politics
  No$987 @ 91.1¢
• Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
  No$580 @ 87.8¢
• Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?Politics
  No$532 @ 90.9¢
• Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?Geopolitics
  No$529 @ 84.4¢
• Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Politics
  No$512 @ 93.0¢
• Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
  No$418 @ 88.5¢
• Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?Politics
  No$389 @ 93.7¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$346 @ 92.3¢
• Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?Politics
  No$307 @ 89.5¢
• Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?Politics
  No$304 @ 84.4¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$299 @ 83.1¢
• Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$258 @ 86.0¢
• Will United Russia win the next Orenburg Oblast Parliament elections?Politics
  Yes$256 @ 94.6¢
• Will United Russia win the next Kursk Oblast Parliament elections?Politics
  Yes$256 @ 94.7¢
• Modi out by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$249 @ 92.4¢
• Will Rodina win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?—
  Yes$153 @ 84.8¢
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  No$107 @ 71.0¢
• Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?—
  Yes$88 @ 94.0¢
• Will United Russia win the next Murmansk Oblast Parliament elections?Politics
  Yes$19 @ 96.0¢