0xd011…e928

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd01195bb21fe9d36ab48431a57eec17b2aaee928
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+15.7pp

ROI

+59%

Win rate

72% @ 55.8¢

Brier

0.245

Resolved

186

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	56% (25/45)	+17%	45
Politics	63% (10/16)	+19%	16
Sports	50% (2/4)	+46%	4
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+16%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+222%	1

Other45 bets
Hit rate
56% (25/45)
ROI
+17%
Politics16 bets
Hit rate
63% (10/16)
ROI
+19%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+46%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+16%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+222%

Track record

57% hit · 39/68

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?	No	$10	99.1¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$2	40.0¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$3	48.8¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 19?	No	$1	61.0¢	Lost
Will Kai or Speed be eliminated by a cactus?	No	$1	99.9¢	Won
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	$30	99.2¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$5	62.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	No	$3	15.6¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	No	$1	27.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	No	$6	32.7¢	Lost
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	7.9¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	Yes	$8	26.4¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 8, 2026?	No	$1	80.0¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?	Yes	$1	7.8¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$1	23.0¢	Lost
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04?	No	$41	33.2¢	Won
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?	No	$10	40.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$5	77.0¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$3	89.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$2	2.2¢	Lost
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?	Yes	$5	19.9¢	Lost
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5)	Spirit	$2	62.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$120	75.7¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$5	79.6¢	Won
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-13?	No	$20	53.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$10	85.8¢	Won
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-03?	No	$7	61.0¢	Won
Will Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit?	No	$10	74.9¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$236	31.1¢	Won
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5	Under	$4	60.0¢	Won
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	No	$10	75.0¢	Won
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03?	No	$7	43.6¢	Won
CD Leganés vs. Real Racing Club: O/U 1.5	Over	$1	55.0¢	Won
Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Spurs	$50	81.0¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$13	53.5¢	Won
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10?	No	$20	40.0¢	Lost
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11?	No	$51	37.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?	No	$5	86.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$55	86.7¢	Won
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-11?	Yes	$41	54.8¢	Won
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$10	50.9¢	Won
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21?	No	$72	25.7¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	No	$1	80.0¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?	No	$7	83.8¢	Won
Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF: O/U 1.5	Over	$1	53.0¢	Lost
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10?	No	$51	56.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs	TDK	$1	38.0¢	Lost
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$3	10.6¢	Lost
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	$1	79.0¢	Won

Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?Won
No$10 @ 99.1¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$2 @ 40.0¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
No$3 @ 48.8¢
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 19?Lost
No$1 @ 61.0¢
Will Kai or Speed be eliminated by a cactus?Won
No$1 @ 99.9¢
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Won
No$30 @ 99.2¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$5 @ 62.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?Lost
No$3 @ 15.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Lost
No$1 @ 27.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Lost
No$6 @ 32.7¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.9¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?Lost
Yes$8 @ 26.4¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 8, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 80.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.8¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 23.0¢
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04?Won
No$41 @ 33.2¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?Lost
No$10 @ 40.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 77.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$3 @ 89.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.2¢
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?Lost
Yes$5 @ 19.9¢
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5)Won
Spirit$2 @ 62.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$120 @ 75.7¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$5 @ 79.6¢
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-13?Lost
No$20 @ 53.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$10 @ 85.8¢
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-03?Won
No$7 @ 61.0¢
Will Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit?Won
No$10 @ 74.9¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$236 @ 31.1¢
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5Won
Under$4 @ 60.0¢
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
No$10 @ 75.0¢
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03?Won
No$7 @ 43.6¢
CD Leganés vs. Real Racing Club: O/U 1.5Won
Over$1 @ 55.0¢
Timberwolves vs. SpursLost
Spurs$50 @ 81.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$13 @ 53.5¢
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10?Lost
No$20 @ 40.0¢
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11?Won
No$51 @ 37.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?Won
No$5 @ 86.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$55 @ 86.7¢
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-11?Won
Yes$41 @ 54.8¢
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Won
Yes$10 @ 50.9¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21?Lost
No$72 @ 25.7¢
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 80.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?Won
No$7 @ 83.8¢
Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF: O/U 1.5Lost
Over$1 @ 53.0¢
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10?Won
No$51 @ 56.0¢
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series PlayoffsLost
TDK$1 @ 38.0¢
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$3 @ 10.6¢
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?Won
Yes$1 @ 79.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$4	65.0¢
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?	Tech	No	$3	91.0¢
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Politics	No	$3	88.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	—	No	$2	79.5¢
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	—	No	$2	88.0¢
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by December 31?	—	No	$2	64.0¢
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?	—	Yes	$2	17.7¢
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$2	71.0¢
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1	39.4¢
Will Peter Olofsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västerbotten?	—	Yes	$1	81.0¢
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?	Tech	No	$1	89.0¢
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?	—	No	$1	95.0¢
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?	—	No	$1	28.0¢
Will Zac de Vries win the 2026 Saanich mayoral election?	—	No	$1	55.0¢
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	—	No	$1	50.0¢
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	—	Yes	$1	36.0¢
Christopher Luxon out by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$1	34.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	No	$1	76.0¢
Will OpenAI announce a head-mounted display in 2026?	Tech	No	$1	91.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	—	No	$1	59.0¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?	Politics	No	$1	53.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	—	Yes	$1	24.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1	19.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	No	$1	57.6¢
Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$1	86.0¢
Will Cilliers Brink be the next mayor of Tshwane?	—	No	$1	58.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	—	No	$1	65.0¢

Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Politics
Yes$4 @ 65.0¢
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?Tech
No$3 @ 91.0¢
Cuban regime falls in 2026?Politics
No$3 @ 88.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?—
No$2 @ 79.5¢
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?—
No$2 @ 88.0¢
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by December 31?—
No$2 @ 64.0¢
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?—
Yes$2 @ 17.7¢
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by December 31?Geopolitics
No$2 @ 71.0¢
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Geopolitics
Yes$1 @ 39.4¢
Will Peter Olofsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västerbotten?—
Yes$1 @ 81.0¢
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?Tech
No$1 @ 89.0¢
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?—
No$1 @ 95.0¢
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?—
No$1 @ 28.0¢
Will Zac de Vries win the 2026 Saanich mayoral election?—
No$1 @ 55.0¢
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?—
No$1 @ 50.0¢
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?—
Yes$1 @ 36.0¢
Christopher Luxon out by September 30?Politics
Yes$1 @ 34.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
No$1 @ 76.0¢
Will OpenAI announce a head-mounted display in 2026?Tech
No$1 @ 91.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?—
No$1 @ 59.0¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?Politics
No$1 @ 53.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?—
Yes$1 @ 24.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Politics
Yes$1 @ 19.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
No$1 @ 57.6¢
Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 30, 2026?—
No$1 @ 86.0¢
Will Cilliers Brink be the next mayor of Tshwane?—
No$1 @ 58.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?—
No$1 @ 65.0¢