0xcce8…4197

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xcce8b0298325f9ad254cadab211b3279ec4c4197
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+19.0pp

ROI

+44%

Win rate

91% @ 71.9¢

Brier

0.134

Resolved

Avg size

$66

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	79% (26/33)	+12%	33
Politics	96% (22/23)	+34%	23
Sports	17% (2/12)	-35%	12
Geopolitics	100% (4/4)	+32%	4

Other33 bets
Hit rate
79% (26/33)
ROI
+12%
Politics23 bets
Hit rate
96% (22/23)
ROI
+34%
Sports12 bets
Hit rate
17% (2/12)
ROI
-35%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
100% (4/4)
ROI
+32%

Track record

75% hit · 54/72

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	$400	96.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?	No	$400	89.5¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	No	$100	91.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$20	11.8¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$400	94.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$100	86.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$100	78.0¢	Lost
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$20	14.3¢	Won
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$10	1.8¢	Lost
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	No	$100	93.0¢	Won
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$20	19.8¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	No	$400	96.0¢	Won
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?	No	$100	78.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	$200	89.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	No	$200	79.1¢	Won
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$20	2.6¢	Lost
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$10	3.4¢	Lost
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance	Colombia	$50	61.0¢	Lost
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$50	1.8¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance	Argentina	$44	87.0¢	Won
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$20	2.5¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?	Yes	$50	44.0¢	Won
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$50	3.2¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$200	69.0¢	Won
Colombia vs. Ghana: Team to Advance	Colombia	$50	81.0¢	Won
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance	Norway	$30	31.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	No	$100	94.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	No	$100	93.9¢	Won
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	$50	84.0¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	No	$200	92.0¢	Won
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	No	$100	90.5¢	Won
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	$10	72.0¢	Won
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$100	66.0¢	Won
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$50	12.1¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$100	70.0¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	No	$100	83.0¢	Won
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$50	32.8¢	Lost
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$50	49.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$200	92.5¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	$100	57.0¢	Won
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?	Yes	$100	67.7¢	Won
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	No	$100	94.1¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	No	$100	77.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	No	$200	77.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$100	90.8¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	$100	93.2¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$50	74.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$50	24.6¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	$100	71.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$100	71.0¢	Won

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Won
No$400 @ 96.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?Won
No$400 @ 89.5¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Won
No$100 @ 91.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$20 @ 11.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$400 @ 94.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
No$100 @ 86.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$100 @ 78.0¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$20 @ 14.3¢
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.8¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Won
No$100 @ 93.0¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$20 @ 19.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Won
No$400 @ 96.0¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?Lost
No$100 @ 78.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Won
No$200 @ 89.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?Won
No$200 @ 79.1¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$20 @ 2.6¢
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$10 @ 3.4¢
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to AdvanceLost
Colombia$50 @ 61.0¢
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$50 @ 1.8¢
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to AdvanceWon
Argentina$44 @ 87.0¢
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$20 @ 2.5¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?Won
Yes$50 @ 44.0¢
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$50 @ 3.2¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$200 @ 69.0¢
Colombia vs. Ghana: Team to AdvanceWon
Colombia$50 @ 81.0¢
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to AdvanceWon
Norway$30 @ 31.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 94.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Won
No$100 @ 93.9¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?Lost
Yes$50 @ 84.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Won
No$200 @ 92.0¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 90.5¢
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?Won
Yes$10 @ 72.0¢
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
Yes$100 @ 66.0¢
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$50 @ 12.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 70.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 83.0¢
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$50 @ 32.8¢
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$50 @ 49.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$200 @ 92.5¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
No$100 @ 57.0¢
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?Won
Yes$100 @ 67.7¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?Won
No$100 @ 94.1¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Won
No$100 @ 77.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Won
No$200 @ 77.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$100 @ 90.8¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
No$100 @ 93.2¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$50 @ 74.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$50 @ 24.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Won
No$100 @ 71.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 71.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Politics	No	$480	64.4¢
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	—	No	$400	95.0¢
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Politics	No	$300	75.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	—	No	$100	90.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$100	92.0¢
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$100	95.8¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	—	No	$100	96.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	—	No	$100	94.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$100	93.0¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$100	93.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$100	88.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	—	Yes	$50	35.9¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	13.0¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Politics
No$480 @ 64.4¢
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?—
No$400 @ 95.0¢
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?Politics
No$300 @ 75.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?—
No$100 @ 90.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$100 @ 92.0¢
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$100 @ 95.8¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?—
No$100 @ 96.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?—
No$100 @ 94.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?—
No$100 @ 93.0¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$100 @ 93.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$100 @ 88.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?—
Yes$50 @ 35.9¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 13.0¢