0xcaab…24dd

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics38 bets

  Hit rate

  42% (16/38)

  ROI

  +12%

• Other18 bets

  Hit rate

  44% (8/18)

  ROI

  +42%

• Tech14 bets

  Hit rate

  14% (2/14)

  ROI

  -14%

• Geopolitics11 bets

  Hit rate

  36% (4/11)

  ROI

  -13%

• Economy10 bets

  Hit rate

  40% (4/10)

  ROI

  +16%

• Sports9 bets

  Hit rate

  22% (2/9)

  ROI

  -39%

• Crypto2 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/2)

  ROI

  -100%

• Business2 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/2)

  ROI

  -100%

• Culture1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of summit?Won
  No$3.2k @ 98.6¢
• Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?Lost
  No$4 @ 0.3¢
• Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Lost
  No$457 @ 36.0¢
• Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Won
  Yes$3.9k @ 51.5¢
• Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?Lost
  No$60 @ 6.0¢
• Will Denmark win on 2026-09-24?Won
  No$167 @ 83.0¢
• Will England win on 2026-07-11?Won
  No$245 @ 47.8¢
• Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
  No$11 @ 1.1¢
• Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Lost
  No$8 @ 1.6¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
  Yes$860 @ 86.0¢
• Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?Lost
  No$95 @ 19.0¢
• GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?Lost
  No$2 @ 0.2¢
• 100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 0.7¢
• Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by July 31?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
• Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Lost
  Yes$72 @ 7.0¢
• Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$300 @ 30.0¢
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?Lost
  No$35 @ 7.0¢
• Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?Lost
  No$207 @ 33.6¢
• Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by June 30?Won
  No$41 @ 89.4¢
• Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
  No$315 @ 62.1¢
• Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$29 @ 5.5¢
• US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Lost
  No$53 @ 2.1¢
• Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Lost
  No$391 @ 78.0¢
• Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Lost
  No$9 @ 1.9¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
  No$3.9k @ 82.3¢
• US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Lost
  Yes$355 @ 71.0¢
• GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?Lost
  No$24 @ 2.1¢
• Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$20 @ 0.8¢
• Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Won
  No$96 @ 65.0¢
• Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?Lost
  No$100 @ 4.9¢
• Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Won
  Yes$890 @ 89.0¢
• Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?Lost
  No$6 @ 0.7¢
• Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Lost
  No$449 @ 11.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
  No$300 @ 30.0¢
• Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$3 @ 0.1¢
• Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting?Lost
  Yes$6 @ 0.1¢
• Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?Lost
  Yes$18 @ 1.7¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
  No$415 @ 82.9¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
  No$840 @ 84.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$150 @ 6.0¢
• Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?Won
  No$243 @ 48.0¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Won
  No$884 @ 88.4¢
• Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Won
  No$13 @ 1.2¢
• Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the June Meeting?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
• Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
  No$6 @ 0.2¢
• Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Lost
  No$7.9k @ 51.8¢
• Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 0.2¢
• Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?Lost
  Yes$117 @ 0.8¢
• Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
  Yes$230 @ 2.3¢
• Fed rate hike in 2026?Won
  Yes$18.9k @ 65.5¢

Current positions

• Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  No$22.0k @ 93.1¢
• US recession by end of 2026?Economy
  No$14.9k @ 90.7¢
• Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
  No$13.9k @ 92.5¢
• New pandemic in 2026?Geopolitics
  No$13.7k @ 90.7¢
• Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
  No$11.9k @ 96.0¢
• Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?Tech
  No$11.0k @ 93.5¢
• Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?Geopolitics
  No$11.0k @ 92.3¢
• Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
  No$9.2k @ 91.6¢
• Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?Politics
  Yes$7.5k @ 97.3¢
• Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$7.0k @ 87.5¢
• Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?Politics
  Yes$6.9k @ 96.2¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$6.3k @ 20.9¢
• Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the September 2026 meeting?Geopolitics
  No$6.3k @ 99.9¢
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$6.1k @ 20.3¢
• Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
  No$6.0k @ 86.3¢
• Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$6.0k @ 90.0¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?Geopolitics
  No$6.0k @ 99.5¢
• Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
  No$5.7k @ 94.7¢
• Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$5.4k @ 89.9¢
• Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?Politics
  Yes$5.2k @ 87.3¢
• Trump out as President by September 30?Politics
  No$5.0k @ 99.3¢
• Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?Politics
  Yes$4.9k @ 96.4¢
• Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$4.4k @ 93.1¢
• Taylor Swift pregnant by September 30?Culture
  No$4.2k @ 96.5¢
• Will Daniel Vilela win the Governor of Goiás election?Politics
  Yes$4.1k @ 94.0¢
• Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Politics
  No$3.2k @ 86.1¢
• Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
  No$3.1k @ 94.5¢
• Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?Politics
  No$3.0k @ 99.4¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
  No$3.0k @ 98.8¢
• Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026?Tech
  No$2.9k @ 93.4¢