0xca97…5409

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xca972cdf160266af59af5ad84d0577cb3ac75409
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.4pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

50% @ 47.0¢

Brier

0.219

Resolved

1617

Avg size

$27

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	45% (54/120)	+5%	120
Other	54% (60/111)	+28%	111
Sports	55% (21/38)	+142%	38
Geopolitics	50% (15/30)	-2%	30
Crypto	57% (8/14)	+66%	14
Tech	50% (2/4)	+2%	4
Economy	50% (1/2)	-41%	2
Culture	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Science	100% (1/1)	+96%	1

Politics120 bets
Hit rate
45% (54/120)
ROI
+5%
Other111 bets
Hit rate
54% (60/111)
ROI
+28%
Sports38 bets
Hit rate
55% (21/38)
ROI
+142%
Geopolitics30 bets
Hit rate
50% (15/30)
ROI
-2%
Crypto14 bets
Hit rate
57% (8/14)
ROI
+66%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+2%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-41%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+96%

Track record

50% hit · 162/322

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$27	72.5¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$66	76.6¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 31?	Yes	$12	80.0¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$187	60.4¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$17	65.0¢	Won
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$6	59.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	$16	10.9¢	Lost
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	$6	51.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$37	61.9¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$67	14.6¢	Lost
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$6	68.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.1k	30.8¢	Lost
Will FC Carl Zeiss Jena win on 2026-08-01?	Yes	$25	3.3¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	No	$10	20.7¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$51	49.9¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$20	5.6¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$11	12.0¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$70	31.4¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	$362	24.7¢	Lost
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	Over	$10	67.0¢	Won
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$30	5.6¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?	No	$10	87.0¢	Won
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	No	$13	30.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$19	37.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$31	60.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$48	42.0¢	Won
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Yes	$12	82.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$132	79.0¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	No	$150	68.6¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	Yes	$666	63.8¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?	Yes	$12	71.0¢	Lost
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	$51	15.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$399	16.1¢	Lost
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Germany	$10	40.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$367	56.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$84	55.9¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$17	10.0¢	Lost
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$13	49.0¢	Lost
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$12	48.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$203	78.9¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$248	28.9¢	Lost
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$47	50.3¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$22	1.7¢	Lost
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	No	$45	55.0¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	No	$64	74.5¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	$108	54.5¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$301	77.5¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$212	72.1¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	Yes	$41	77.5¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	$7	13.2¢	Lost

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
No$27 @ 72.5¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$66 @ 76.6¢
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 31?Won
Yes$12 @ 80.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$187 @ 60.4¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$17 @ 65.0¢
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?Lost
Yes$6 @ 59.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Lost
Yes$16 @ 10.9¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Won
No$6 @ 51.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$37 @ 61.9¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$67 @ 14.6¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$6 @ 68.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.1k @ 30.8¢
Will FC Carl Zeiss Jena win on 2026-08-01?Lost
Yes$25 @ 3.3¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
No$10 @ 20.7¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$51 @ 49.9¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$20 @ 5.6¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$11 @ 12.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$70 @ 31.4¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Lost
Yes$362 @ 24.7¢
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5Won
Over$10 @ 67.0¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$30 @ 5.6¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 87.0¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Lost
No$13 @ 30.0¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$19 @ 37.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$31 @ 60.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$48 @ 42.0¢
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?Won
Yes$12 @ 82.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
No$132 @ 79.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
No$150 @ 68.6¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Won
Yes$666 @ 63.8¢
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?Lost
Yes$12 @ 71.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Lost
Yes$51 @ 15.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$399 @ 16.1¢
Spread: Germany (-1.5)Lost
Germany$10 @ 40.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$367 @ 56.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$84 @ 55.9¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$17 @ 10.0¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$13 @ 49.0¢
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$12 @ 48.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$203 @ 78.9¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$248 @ 28.9¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Won
Yes$47 @ 50.3¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$22 @ 1.7¢
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Lost
No$45 @ 55.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Won
No$64 @ 74.5¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Lost
Yes$108 @ 54.5¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$301 @ 77.5¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$212 @ 72.1¢
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?Won
Yes$41 @ 77.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Lost
No$7 @ 13.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.2k	83.7¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$414	59.4¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$404	94.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$283	94.4¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$241	96.2¢
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Politics	No	$180	92.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$178	95.4¢
Trump goes to space in 2026?	Politics	No	$170	97.5¢
Putin meets with Iranian officials by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$170	98.6¢
Russia coup attempt in 2026?	Politics	No	$141	94.0¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$130	49.5¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$113	97.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$105	90.8¢
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$99	95.3¢
Iran nuclear test before 2027?	Politics	No	$96	96.0¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Politics	No	$95	89.6¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$72	13.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$70	31.4¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$69	9.8¢
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Culture	No	$46	98.1¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$44	97.1¢
Iran coup attempt by December 31?	Politics	No	$41	90.0¢
Will Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$38	91.1¢
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$37	95.8¢
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$35	91.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$33	85.0¢
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$31	0.2¢
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$30	90.7¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$28	88.0¢
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$28	94.4¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$1.2k @ 83.7¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
Yes$414 @ 59.4¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$404 @ 94.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?Tech
No$283 @ 94.4¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
No$241 @ 96.2¢
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?Politics
No$180 @ 92.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
No$178 @ 95.4¢
Trump goes to space in 2026?Politics
No$170 @ 97.5¢
Putin meets with Iranian officials by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$170 @ 98.6¢
Russia coup attempt in 2026?Politics
No$141 @ 94.0¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$130 @ 49.5¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
No$113 @ 97.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
No$105 @ 90.8¢
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?Politics
No$99 @ 95.3¢
Iran nuclear test before 2027?Politics
No$96 @ 96.0¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
No$95 @ 89.6¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
Yes$72 @ 13.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$70 @ 31.4¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$69 @ 9.8¢
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?Culture
No$46 @ 98.1¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Politics
No$44 @ 97.1¢
Iran coup attempt by December 31?Politics
No$41 @ 90.0¢
Will Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027?Politics
No$38 @ 91.1¢
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$37 @ 95.8¢
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$35 @ 91.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$33 @ 85.0¢
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$31 @ 0.2¢
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$30 @ 90.7¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$28 @ 88.0¢
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$28 @ 94.4¢