0xc77b…a526

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc77bc7c12cff77cd80de2d3377ce22aec3a6a526
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-9.0pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

35% @ 44.1¢

Brier

0.149

Resolved

308

Avg size

$21

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	41% (17/41)	+12%	41
Other	29% (7/24)	-70%	24
Geopolitics	33% (2/6)	+22%	6
Tech	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics41 bets
Hit rate
41% (17/41)
ROI
+12%
Other24 bets
Hit rate
29% (7/24)
ROI
-70%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
+22%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

34% hit · 26/76

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	3.3¢	Lost
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	$2	4.9¢	Lost
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$171	67.6¢	Won
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$12	36.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$943	72.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$451	33.6¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	Yes	$4	2.4¢	Lost
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	$7	0.6¢	Lost
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	$4	89.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$28	42.6¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$12	60.2¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	No	$8	14.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$205	83.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$85	15.7¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$21	7.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	$4	80.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$45	16.0¢	Lost
Will Garrett Mason win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$7	16.0¢	Lost
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	No	$12	71.7¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$108	9.4¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	No	$15	53.0¢	Lost
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?	Yes	$1	13.0¢	Won
Will "Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- Season 3" win Best Isekai Anime at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?	Yes	$4	89.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$29	31.0¢	Lost
Will Cerebras not IPO before July 2026?	Yes	$3	0.7¢	Lost
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	Yes	$16	88.0¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	No	$3	6.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$58	50.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$21	52.3¢	Won
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	$33	88.1¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	$4	89.0¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	$28	28.0¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	$18	88.5¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	$13	79.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$76	22.3¢	Lost
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 17?	Yes	$11	1.1¢	Lost
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	$7	42.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$818	68.6¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$37	20.8¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?	No	$5	0.2¢	Lost
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	No	$8	81.4¢	Won
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Yes	$3	13.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	$32	73.5¢	Lost
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	Yes	$439	71.7¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$9	13.2¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	Yes	$1	5.7¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	$162	47.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	$82	21.0¢	Lost

Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.3¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.9¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$171 @ 67.6¢
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 36.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$943 @ 72.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$451 @ 33.6¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.4¢
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Lost
No$7 @ 0.6¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Won
No$4 @ 89.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$28 @ 42.6¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$12 @ 60.2¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$8 @ 14.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$205 @ 83.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$85 @ 15.7¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$21 @ 7.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 80.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$45 @ 16.0¢
Will Garrett Mason win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$7 @ 16.0¢
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
No$12 @ 71.7¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$108 @ 9.4¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?Lost
No$15 @ 53.0¢
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?Won
Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
Will "Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- Season 3" win Best Isekai Anime at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?Won
Yes$4 @ 89.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$29 @ 31.0¢
Will Cerebras not IPO before July 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.7¢
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?Won
Yes$16 @ 88.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?Lost
No$3 @ 6.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$58 @ 50.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$21 @ 52.3¢
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?Won
Yes$33 @ 88.1¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Lost
No$1 @ 0.6¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Won
Yes$4 @ 89.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Lost
No$28 @ 28.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Won
No$18 @ 88.5¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
No$13 @ 79.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$76 @ 22.3¢
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 17?Lost
Yes$11 @ 1.1¢
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?Lost
Yes$7 @ 42.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$818 @ 68.6¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$37 @ 20.8¢
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 0.2¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?Won
No$8 @ 81.4¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 13.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Lost
No$32 @ 73.5¢
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?Won
Yes$439 @ 71.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$9 @ 13.2¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Lost
No$162 @ 47.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Lost
Yes$82 @ 21.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Weed rescheduled by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$196	42.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolitics	Yes	$60	50.1¢
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$54	10.7¢
Will Michele Tafoya be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	Politics	No	$46	18.6¢
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	Politics	No	$41	86.3¢
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$38	89.7¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$37	64.0¢
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage?	Culture	No	$36	96.2¢
Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Politics	No	$34	97.0¢
Will Bridget Brink be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?	Politics	No	$33	32.7¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$30	17.6¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$29	19.0¢
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$29	18.5¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?	Politics	No	$28	77.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$28	9.5¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$27	19.4¢
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$26	31.6¢
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$26	26.9¢
Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?	Politics	No	$25	69.0¢
Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Politics	No	$24	96.5¢
Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok?	Geopolitics	No	$24	96.1¢
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?	Politics	No	$24	87.6¢
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?	Politics	No	$23	93.2¢
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Politics	No	$23	92.3¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$23	2.3¢
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$23	24.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$22	60.6¢
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?	Tech	No	$22	95.2¢
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$21	1.6¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$21	68.4¢

Weed rescheduled by June 30?Politics
Yes$196 @ 42.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
Yes$60 @ 50.1¢
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$54 @ 10.7¢
Will Michele Tafoya be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Politics
No$46 @ 18.6¢
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?Politics
No$41 @ 86.3¢
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$38 @ 89.7¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$37 @ 64.0¢
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage?Culture
No$36 @ 96.2¢
Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Politics
No$34 @ 97.0¢
Will Bridget Brink be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?Politics
No$33 @ 32.7¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$30 @ 17.6¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
Yes$29 @ 19.0¢
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Politics
Yes$29 @ 18.5¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?Politics
No$28 @ 77.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics
Yes$28 @ 9.5¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$27 @ 19.4¢
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$26 @ 31.6¢
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$26 @ 26.9¢
Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?Politics
No$25 @ 69.0¢
Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Politics
No$24 @ 96.5¢
Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok?Geopolitics
No$24 @ 96.1¢
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?Politics
No$24 @ 87.6¢
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?Politics
No$23 @ 93.2¢
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Politics
No$23 @ 92.3¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary before 2027?Politics
Yes$23 @ 2.3¢
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$23 @ 24.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$22 @ 60.6¢
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?Tech
No$22 @ 95.2¢
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$21 @ 1.6¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?Politics
Yes$21 @ 68.4¢