← Smart money
0xbacd…ab35
SharpEdge
+15.2pp
ROI
+32%
Win rate
56% @ 40.3¢
Brier
0.141
Resolved
243
Avg size
$318
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 25% (2/8) | -22% | 8 |
| Geopolitics | 0% (0/2) | -100% | 2 |
| Sports | 100% (1/1) | +146% | 1 |
- Politics8 bets
- Hit rate
- 25% (2/8)
- ROI
- -22%
- Geopolitics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/2)
- ROI
- -100%
- Sports1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +146%
Track record
27% hit · 3/11| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | No | $109 | 4.9¢ | Lost |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? | Yes | $80 | 19.4¢ | Lost |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026? | No | $260 | 2.9¢ | Lost |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026? | Yes | $4.8k | 58.2¢ | Won |
| Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? | Yes | $55 | 40.6¢ | Won |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 13? | Yes | $39 | 7.6¢ | Lost |
| Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $23 | 3.8¢ | Lost |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | $7.0k | 15.4¢ | Lost |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? | Yes | $68 | 1.9¢ | Lost |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 21, 2026? | Yes | $2.1k | 71.4¢ | Won |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 11? | Yes | $29 | 12.9¢ | Lost |
- No$109 @ 4.9¢
- Yes$80 @ 19.4¢
- No$260 @ 2.9¢
- Yes$4.8k @ 58.2¢
- Yes$55 @ 40.6¢
- Yes$39 @ 7.6¢
- Yes$23 @ 3.8¢
- No$7.0k @ 15.4¢
- Yes$68 @ 1.9¢
- Yes$2.1k @ 71.4¢
- Yes$29 @ 12.9¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
- No$109.9k @ 87.4¢
- Yes$72.6k @ 43.7¢
- Yes$69.3k @ 86.3¢
- No$44.9k @ 73.0¢
- No$42.5k @ 79.7¢
- Yes$42.0k @ 13.0¢
- Yes$35.4k @ 44.7¢
- Yes$35.4k @ 95.1¢
- Yes$26.0k @ 32.7¢
- Yes$23.2k @ 20.9¢
- Yes$23.0k @ 23.2¢
- Yes$21.5k @ 9.3¢
- No$19.9k @ 98.4¢
- No$18.9k @ 80.3¢
- Yes$16.6k @ 80.1¢
- Yes$15.8k @ 4.4¢
- No$14.6k @ 95.5¢
- Yes$13.2k @ 2.8¢
- No$10.2k @ 84.7¢
- Yes$10.2k @ 70.1¢
- Yes$10.1k @ 37.4¢
- Yes$8.9k @ 36.1¢
- No$8.7k @ 95.7¢
- Yes$8.5k @ 8.2¢
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?PoliticsYes$8.4k @ 58.0¢
- Yes$7.5k @ 57.0¢
- Yes$7.1k @ 30.2¢
- No$6.5k @ 73.3¢
- No$6.4k @ 85.8¢
- Yes$6.1k @ 39.4¢