0xbaa2…2c73

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.3pp

ROI

+56%

Win rate

45% @ 38.8¢

Brier

0.218

Resolved

3936

Avg size

$582

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	44% (28/63)	+140%	63
Geopolitics	54% (20/37)	+3%	37
Other	58% (11/19)	+32%	19

Politics63 bets
Hit rate
44% (28/63)
ROI
+140%
Geopolitics37 bets
Hit rate
54% (20/37)
ROI
+3%
Other19 bets
Hit rate
58% (11/19)
ROI
+32%

Track record

50% hit · 59/119

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$19.6k	58.5¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$5.6k	72.7¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	$13.5k	85.1¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$9.7k	31.6¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	No	$82.9k	78.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	Yes	$22.8k	84.9¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$26.1k	75.3¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$8.6k	29.3¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	$796	29.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	No	$2.4k	66.3¢	Won
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	$471	89.9¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$731	36.3¢	Lost
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.5k	39.8¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	No	$6.4k	88.6¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$20.2k	81.9¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$9.5k	5.4¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$975	8.1¢	Lost
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	No	$94.7k	70.4¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$7.9k	25.9¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	No	$419	88.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	Yes	$1.0k	21.9¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$3.4k	20.0¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$7.6k	54.1¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	$1.5k	64.8¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$3.8k	18.0¢	Won
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	Yes	$706	10.2¢	Lost
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	$1.0k	60.1¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$928	32.6¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$24.2k	9.8¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$26.2k	76.2¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Yes	$4.2k	34.3¢	Lost
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	$36	89.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	$1.8k	57.2¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$5.3k	14.6¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?	No	$5.7k	44.8¢	Won
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?	Yes	$1.8k	27.6¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$10.4k	55.1¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$15.1k	76.4¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.7k	53.2¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	$13.3k	70.0¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$13.8k	60.9¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$36.0k	49.3¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	$14.9k	87.9¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	No	$34.2k	84.4¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$5.9k	28.4¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?	No	$2.3k	71.0¢	Won
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?	No	$8.3k	87.2¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$90.7k	43.1¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$10.4k	69.4¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	$22.0k	30.4¢	Lost

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$19.6k @ 58.5¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$5.6k @ 72.7¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Won
No$13.5k @ 85.1¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$9.7k @ 31.6¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
No$82.9k @ 78.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Won
Yes$22.8k @ 84.9¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$26.1k @ 75.3¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$8.6k @ 29.3¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Lost
Yes$796 @ 29.0¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$2.4k @ 66.3¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Won
No$471 @ 89.9¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$731 @ 36.3¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 39.8¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Won
No$6.4k @ 88.6¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$20.2k @ 81.9¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$9.5k @ 5.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$975 @ 8.1¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Won
No$94.7k @ 70.4¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$7.9k @ 25.9¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Won
No$419 @ 88.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 21.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$3.4k @ 20.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$7.6k @ 54.1¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Lost
No$1.5k @ 64.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$3.8k @ 18.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?Lost
Yes$706 @ 10.2¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$1.0k @ 60.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$928 @ 32.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$24.2k @ 9.8¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$26.2k @ 76.2¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Lost
Yes$4.2k @ 34.3¢
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Won
No$36 @ 89.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
No$1.8k @ 57.2¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$5.3k @ 14.6¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?Won
No$5.7k @ 44.8¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?Lost
Yes$1.8k @ 27.6¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$10.4k @ 55.1¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$15.1k @ 76.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.7k @ 53.2¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$13.3k @ 70.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$13.8k @ 60.9¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$36.0k @ 49.3¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Won
No$14.9k @ 87.9¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Won
No$34.2k @ 84.4¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$5.9k @ 28.4¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?Won
No$2.3k @ 71.0¢
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?Won
No$8.3k @ 87.2¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$90.7k @ 43.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$10.4k @ 69.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$22.0k @ 30.4¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$388.7k	76.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$272.6k	73.6¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$136.8k	85.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$49.1k	76.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$36.5k	55.1¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Politics	Yes	$22.1k	66.2¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$17.2k	51.2¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$17.2k	30.5¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$12.2k	82.0¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Politics	No	$12.1k	74.8¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$11.4k	26.3¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$9.8k	57.6¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$8.0k	89.2¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$7.8k	43.3¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$7.3k	65.1¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$6.8k	81.4¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$6.2k	41.1¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$5.6k	38.9¢
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$5.1k	83.9¢
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$3.9k	77.6¢
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$3.8k	67.1¢
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$3.7k	72.7¢
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.5k	31.0¢
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?	Politics	No	$3.2k	81.5¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Politics	No	$3.0k	83.5¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$2.7k	59.1¢
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$2.5k	80.6¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$2.4k	85.0¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Politics	No	$2.3k	51.1¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?	Politics	No	$2.1k	95.2¢

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$388.7k @ 76.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$272.6k @ 73.6¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
No$136.8k @ 85.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
No$49.1k @ 76.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$36.5k @ 55.1¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics
Yes$22.1k @ 66.2¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$17.2k @ 51.2¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$17.2k @ 30.5¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$12.2k @ 82.0¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Politics
No$12.1k @ 74.8¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
Yes$11.4k @ 26.3¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
Yes$9.8k @ 57.6¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$8.0k @ 89.2¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?Politics
Yes$7.8k @ 43.3¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$7.3k @ 65.1¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$6.8k @ 81.4¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Geopolitics
No$6.2k @ 41.1¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$5.6k @ 38.9¢
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$5.1k @ 83.9¢
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?Geopolitics
No$3.9k @ 77.6¢
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?Geopolitics
No$3.8k @ 67.1¢
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?Politics
No$3.7k @ 72.7¢
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
Yes$3.5k @ 31.0¢
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?Politics
No$3.2k @ 81.5¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Politics
No$3.0k @ 83.5¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?Politics
Yes$2.7k @ 59.1¢
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?Geopolitics
No$2.5k @ 80.6¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$2.4k @ 85.0¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Politics
No$2.3k @ 51.1¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?Politics
No$2.1k @ 95.2¢