0xbaa2…2c73

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics73 bets

  Hit rate

  42% (31/73)

  ROI

  -5%

• Geopolitics43 bets

  Hit rate

  53% (23/43)

  ROI

  +4%

• Other20 bets

  Hit rate

  55% (11/20)

  ROI

  +32%

• Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
  No$19.1k @ 58.9¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
  Yes$5.6k @ 72.7¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
  Yes$9.7k @ 31.6¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
  No$82.9k @ 78.0¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Won
  Yes$22.8k @ 84.9¢
• Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
  No$26.1k @ 75.3¢
• Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
  Yes$8.6k @ 29.3¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Lost
  Yes$796 @ 29.0¢
• US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Lost
  No$66.6k @ 67.0¢
• Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
  No$1.4k @ 65.2¢
• Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1.5k @ 39.8¢
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Won
  No$6.4k @ 88.6¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
  No$20.2k @ 81.9¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
  Yes$9.5k @ 5.4¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
  Yes$975 @ 8.1¢
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$94.7k @ 70.4¢
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$7.9k @ 25.9¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Won
  No$419 @ 88.0¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
  Yes$1.0k @ 21.9¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Lost
  No$552 @ 4.8¢
• Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
  Yes$7.6k @ 54.1¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Lost
  No$1.5k @ 64.8¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
  Yes$2.4k @ 27.8¢
• US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Lost
  No$1.0k @ 60.1¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
  Yes$928 @ 32.6¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?Lost
  No$11.1k @ 72.4¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
  Yes$1.0k @ 20.5¢
• Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
  No$26.2k @ 76.2¢
• Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Lost
  Yes$4.2k @ 34.3¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Lost
  Yes$367 @ 11.0¢
• Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$36 @ 89.0¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
  No$1.8k @ 57.2¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
  Yes$5.3k @ 14.6¢
• Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?Won
  No$5.7k @ 44.8¢
• Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?Lost
  Yes$1.8k @ 27.6¢
• Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
  No$10.4k @ 55.1¢
• Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
  Yes$15.1k @ 76.4¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1.7k @ 53.2¢
• US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
  No$13.8k @ 60.9¢
• US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
  Yes$36.0k @ 49.3¢
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$14.9k @ 87.9¢
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Won
  No$34.2k @ 84.4¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
  Yes$5.9k @ 28.4¢
• Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?Won
  No$8.3k @ 87.2¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
  Yes$90.7k @ 43.1¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
  No$10.4k @ 69.4¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
  Yes$22.0k @ 30.4¢
• Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
  No$7.2k @ 75.1¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?Won
  No$16.8k @ 60.0¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?Lost
  Yes$5.0k @ 80.1¢

Current positions

• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
  No$474.1k @ 84.3¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$272.6k @ 73.6¢
• Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$138.9k @ 85.5¢
• US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
  No$27.7k @ 81.6¢
• Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics
  Yes$18.3k @ 66.2¢
• Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$17.2k @ 51.2¢
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$13.2k @ 30.5¢
• Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Politics
  No$12.2k @ 75.2¢
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$9.8k @ 83.1¢
• Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$8.5k @ 75.4¢
• Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?Politics
  Yes$7.8k @ 43.3¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
  Yes$5.9k @ 26.3¢
• Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
  Yes$5.6k @ 57.6¢
• Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
  No$4.7k @ 85.0¢
• Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$4.2k @ 83.9¢
• Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$4.1k @ 42.0¢
• Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Politics
  No$4.0k @ 87.9¢
• Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Politics
  No$3.5k @ 77.9¢
• Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?Politics
  No$3.1k @ 81.5¢
• Israeli election results in a hung parliament?Politics
  Yes$3.0k @ 60.1¢
• Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?Geopolitics
  No$2.5k @ 81.1¢
• Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$2.4k @ 89.2¢
• Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?Geopolitics
  No$2.0k @ 85.2¢
• Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?Geopolitics
  No$1.9k @ 81.4¢
• Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?Politics
  Yes$1.8k @ 59.1¢
• US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?Politics
  No$1.7k @ 96.0¢
• Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?Politics
  No$1.6k @ 88.6¢
• Next Israeli government formed by February 28, 2027?Politics
  Yes$1.3k @ 50.5¢
• Netanyahu out by March 31, 2027?Politics
  No$1.2k @ 54.8¢
• Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  Yes$1.1k @ 4.1¢