0xb8a7…f655

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb8a76dd32290ca2e36c657ade1eca5cad86ff655
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+7.9pp

ROI

+103%

Win rate

26% @ 18.6¢

Brier

0.255

Resolved

185

Avg size

$38

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	25% (2/8)	-70%	8
Other	57% (4/7)	+785%	7
Tech	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Sports	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Geopolitics	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Economy	50% (1/2)	-34%	2

Politics8 bets
Hit rate
25% (2/8)
ROI
-70%
Other7 bets
Hit rate
57% (4/7)
ROI
+785%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-34%

Track record

27% hit · 7/26

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$78	78.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	Yes	$134	14.1¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$375	3.7¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$300	75.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$24	23.0¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	$430	9.3¢	Lost
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	No	$131	59.4¢	Lost
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	Yes	$35	32.0¢	Won
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$934	16.0¢	Lost
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	$32	0.4¢	Lost
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?	No	$150	7.9¢	Lost
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	$13	0.3¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	$281	46.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	No	$249	35.6¢	Lost
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?	No	$90	12.4¢	Lost
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	$438	73.0¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	Yes	$244	24.4¢	Lost
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?	No	$87	87.2¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?	No	$543	17.5¢	Won
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	No	$138	23.0¢	Lost
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$978	16.1¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	No	$192	6.5¢	Lost
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$547	38.9¢	Lost
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	$330	33.0¢	Lost
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$22	0.3¢	Lost
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?	No	$237	79.0¢	Lost

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
No$78 @ 78.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Lost
Yes$134 @ 14.1¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$375 @ 3.7¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$300 @ 75.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$24 @ 23.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Lost
Yes$430 @ 9.3¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?Lost
No$131 @ 59.4¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?Won
Yes$35 @ 32.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$934 @ 16.0¢
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Lost
Yes$32 @ 0.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?Lost
No$150 @ 7.9¢
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League?Lost
Yes$13 @ 0.3¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Lost
No$281 @ 46.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Lost
No$249 @ 35.6¢
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$90 @ 12.4¢
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Won
No$438 @ 73.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Lost
Yes$244 @ 24.4¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?Won
No$87 @ 87.2¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?Won
No$543 @ 17.5¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Lost
No$138 @ 23.0¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$978 @ 16.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Lost
No$192 @ 6.5¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$547 @ 38.9¢
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Lost
No$330 @ 33.0¢
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$22 @ 0.3¢
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?Lost
No$237 @ 79.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Tottenham win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Sports	No	$996	99.6¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$774	96.7¢
Will Aston Villa win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Sports	No	$698	99.7¢
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$696	99.4¢
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$261	87.0¢
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$214	50.0¢
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$186	93.0¢
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$128	99.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$50	62.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$40	95.7¢
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$31	39.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the GA-14 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$12	96.3¢

Will Tottenham win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Sports
No$996 @ 99.6¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$774 @ 96.7¢
Will Aston Villa win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Sports
No$698 @ 99.7¢
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$696 @ 99.4¢
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$261 @ 87.0¢
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$214 @ 50.0¢
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$186 @ 93.0¢
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$128 @ 99.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$50 @ 62.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$40 @ 95.7¢
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$31 @ 39.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the GA-14 House seat?Politics
Yes$12 @ 96.3¢