0xb6ce…895d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb6ce892dd3e01d4e30264f15fd9e61a4f62f895d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.4pp

ROI

+32%

Win rate

43% @ 35.5¢

Brier

0.192

Resolved

2660

Avg size

$20

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	48% (97/203)	+41%	203
Other	53% (97/183)	+25%	183
Geopolitics	42% (25/59)	-29%	59
Sports	56% (31/55)	+1%	55
Crypto	42% (10/24)	+51%	24
Tech	13% (1/8)	-28%	8
Economy	67% (2/3)	+32%	3
Culture	33% (1/3)	-83%	3
Science	50% (1/2)	-27%	2

Politics203 bets
Hit rate
48% (97/203)
ROI
+41%
Other183 bets
Hit rate
53% (97/183)
ROI
+25%
Geopolitics59 bets
Hit rate
42% (25/59)
ROI
-29%
Sports55 bets
Hit rate
56% (31/55)
ROI
+1%
Crypto24 bets
Hit rate
42% (10/24)
ROI
+51%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
13% (1/8)
ROI
-28%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+32%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-83%
Science2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-27%

Track record

49% hit · 265/540

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$20	65.6¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$33	64.7¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 31?	Yes	$5	80.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?	Yes	$9	2.8¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$339	33.5¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$6	66.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$22	10.7¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$145	84.5¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	$23	14.4¢	Lost
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	$5	56.0¢	Won
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	Yes	$7	35.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$15	88.0¢	Won
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$109	23.7¢	Lost
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$31	66.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$187	74.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.2k	24.1¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$4	14.4¢	Lost
Will FC Carl Zeiss Jena win on 2026-08-01?	Yes	$9	3.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	No	$11	15.8¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$19	49.9¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$7	5.1¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$9	12.5¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$47	67.7¢	Lost
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	No	$13	22.5¢	Lost
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	Yes	$5	82.0¢	Won
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Yes	$5	82.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$185	44.2¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14?	No	$17	84.0¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	Yes	$98	65.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?	No	$17	83.0¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	No	$280	44.7¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	Yes	$262	65.5¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?	Yes	$14	75.6¢	Lost
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$6	56.0¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	$50	20.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$60	82.2¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$371	13.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$124	63.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$93	38.9¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$200	73.7¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$22	9.9¢	Lost
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$5	49.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$49	77.7¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$307	33.2¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 August 3-9?	Yes	$4	2.0¢	Lost
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$27	4.0¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	Yes	$2	1.0¢	Lost

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
No$20 @ 65.6¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$33 @ 64.7¢
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 31?Won
Yes$5 @ 80.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?Lost
Yes$9 @ 2.8¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$339 @ 33.5¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$6 @ 66.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$22 @ 10.7¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$145 @ 84.5¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Lost
Yes$23 @ 14.4¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Won
No$5 @ 56.0¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Lost
Yes$7 @ 35.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$15 @ 88.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$109 @ 23.7¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$31 @ 66.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$187 @ 74.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.2k @ 24.1¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$4 @ 14.4¢
Will FC Carl Zeiss Jena win on 2026-08-01?Lost
Yes$9 @ 3.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
No$11 @ 15.8¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$19 @ 49.9¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$7 @ 5.1¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$9 @ 12.5¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$47 @ 67.7¢
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Lost
No$13 @ 22.5¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 82.0¢
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?Won
Yes$5 @ 82.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$185 @ 44.2¢
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14?Won
No$17 @ 84.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Won
Yes$98 @ 65.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?Won
No$17 @ 83.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
No$280 @ 44.7¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Won
Yes$262 @ 65.5¢
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?Lost
Yes$14 @ 75.6¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$6 @ 56.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Lost
Yes$50 @ 20.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$60 @ 82.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$371 @ 13.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$124 @ 63.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$93 @ 38.9¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$200 @ 73.7¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$22 @ 9.9¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$5 @ 49.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$49 @ 77.7¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$307 @ 33.2¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 August 3-9?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$27 @ 4.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$8.0k	80.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$3.0k	84.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$2.0k	20.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$969	78.5¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$843	94.4¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$301	91.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$268	40.4¢
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$167	97.8¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$154	88.4¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$131	90.9¢
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$130	91.4¢
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$99	93.7¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$83	44.8¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$77	47.7¢
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$64	27.1¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$63	15.7¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$62	83.0¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Politics	No	$56	91.4¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$55	45.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	No	$42	93.3¢
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$38	92.3¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$35	80.0¢
Trump goes to space in 2026?	Politics	No	$32	97.0¢
NATO dissolves before 2027?	Politics	No	$30	95.3¢
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	No	$28	92.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$19	37.9¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Politics	No	$17	78.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	No	$16	82.3¢
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$16	95.0¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$15	19.2¢

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$8.0k @ 80.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$3.0k @ 84.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$2.0k @ 20.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$969 @ 78.5¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
No$843 @ 94.4¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
No$301 @ 91.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$268 @ 40.4¢
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$167 @ 97.8¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
No$154 @ 88.4¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$131 @ 90.9¢
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$130 @ 91.4¢
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$99 @ 93.7¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$83 @ 44.8¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
Yes$77 @ 47.7¢
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?Crypto
Yes$64 @ 27.1¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$63 @ 15.7¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$62 @ 83.0¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
No$56 @ 91.4¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$55 @ 45.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
No$42 @ 93.3¢
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$38 @ 92.3¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$35 @ 80.0¢
Trump goes to space in 2026?Politics
No$32 @ 97.0¢
NATO dissolves before 2027?Politics
No$30 @ 95.3¢
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
No$28 @ 92.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
Yes$19 @ 37.9¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?Politics
No$17 @ 78.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
No$16 @ 82.3¢
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?Politics
No$16 @ 95.0¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?Politics
Yes$15 @ 19.2¢