0xb6ce…895d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb6ce892dd3e01d4e30264f15fd9e61a4f62f895d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.0pp

ROI

+35%

Win rate

45% @ 35.9¢

Brier

0.167

Resolved

399

Avg size

$37

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	36% (12/33)	-6%	33
Other	48% (10/21)	+73%	21
Crypto	36% (4/11)	+55%	11
Sports	56% (5/9)	-14%	9
Geopolitics	38% (3/8)	-23%	8
Tech	25% (1/4)	-5%	4

Politics33 bets
Hit rate
36% (12/33)
ROI
-6%
Other21 bets
Hit rate
48% (10/21)
ROI
+73%
Crypto11 bets
Hit rate
36% (4/11)
ROI
+55%
Sports9 bets
Hit rate
56% (5/9)
ROI
-14%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
38% (3/8)
ROI
-23%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-5%

Track record

41% hit · 35/86

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?	Yes	$2	2.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$6	66.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$15	88.0¢	Won
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$23	64.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$66	73.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	22.3¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$8	40.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$20	81.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$191	14.6¢	Lost
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$5	49.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	No	$17	55.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$4	47.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$9	21.0¢	Lost
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 June 8-14?	Yes	$8	1.0¢	Lost
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?	No	$2	8.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$5	22.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$5.9k	53.4¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$916	29.3¢	Lost
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	No	$9	59.8¢	Won
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$39	33.4¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	$2	33.0¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$8	65.0¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$4	48.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	5.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$159	83.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$143	12.5¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?	No	$40	64.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?	Yes	$6	9.5¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?	No	$5	66.5¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	$10	83.2¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$80	6.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$472	65.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$869	34.8¢	Won
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	$7	42.4¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	$9	9.0¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	$85	89.0¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	$1	8.0¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	$31	74.0¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	$3	5.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$32	9.3¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	$17	88.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$67	13.4¢	Lost
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	$10	54.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$260	79.8¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$119	38.1¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$19	25.0¢	Lost

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$6 @ 66.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$15 @ 88.0¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$23 @ 64.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$66 @ 73.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.6k @ 22.3¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$8 @ 40.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 81.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$191 @ 14.6¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$5 @ 49.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Lost
No$17 @ 55.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$4 @ 47.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 21.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 June 8-14?Lost
Yes$8 @ 1.0¢
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 8.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 22.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$5.9k @ 53.4¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$916 @ 29.3¢
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?Won
No$9 @ 59.8¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$39 @ 33.4¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Won
Yes$2 @ 33.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$8 @ 65.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$4 @ 48.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 5.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$159 @ 83.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$143 @ 12.5¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?Won
No$40 @ 64.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?Lost
Yes$6 @ 9.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?Won
No$5 @ 66.5¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Won
No$10 @ 83.2¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
Yes$80 @ 6.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$472 @ 65.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$869 @ 34.8¢
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Won
Yes$7 @ 42.4¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Lost
No$9 @ 9.0¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Won
Yes$85 @ 89.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Lost
No$1 @ 8.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Won
Yes$31 @ 74.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 5.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$32 @ 9.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Won
No$17 @ 88.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$67 @ 13.4¢
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?Lost
Yes$10 @ 54.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$260 @ 79.8¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$119 @ 38.1¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$19 @ 25.0¢

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