0xb3d7…7504

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb3d7736055eefc5948890303e6410f755b6f7504
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.5pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

79% @ 70.6¢

Brier

0.087

Resolved

168

Avg size

$97

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	74% (35/47)	+6%	47
Politics	92% (12/13)	+21%	13
Sports	67% (2/3)	-15%	3
Geopolitics	100% (3/3)	+30%	3
Crypto	100% (3/3)	+16%	3
Tech	100% (2/2)	+43%	2
Business	50% (1/2)	+4%	2

Other47 bets
Hit rate
74% (35/47)
ROI
+6%
Politics13 bets
Hit rate
92% (12/13)
ROI
+21%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-15%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+30%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+16%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+43%
Business2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+4%

Track record

79% hit · 58/73

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	No	$312	58.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	No	$886	82.1¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$364	18.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$200	85.5¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	$35	61.3¢	Won
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?	No	$276	78.0¢	Won
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?	No	$11	20.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Boy oh boy" this week? (April 20 - 26)	No	$125	68.1¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$30	77.0¢	Won
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June?	No	$67	23.9¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$551	74.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$47	79.3¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$400	86.7¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	No	$20	76.0¢	Won
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	$358	81.3¢	Won
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$80	68.9¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$276	80.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 20, 2026?	No	$5	29.0¢	Lost
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30?	No	$673	80.5¢	Won
Will Trump say "Trump Strait" or "Strait of Trump" this week? (April 20 - 26)	No	$100	89.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	$767	86.4¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	$207	69.0¢	Won
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$101	88.8¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?	No	$352	82.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$252	89.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?	No	$152	84.2¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	No	$269	24.8¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026?	No	$100	85.8¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	$100	89.2¢	Won
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June?	No	$264	88.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?	No	$300	89.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	$173	81.2¢	Won
Will Trump post "Viktor" or "Orban" or "Orbán" this week on Truth Social?	No	$10	83.9¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	No	$223	89.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$21	30.6¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	$200	83.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $212 Week of April 20 2026?	No	$20	87.9¢	Won
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May?	No	$81	84.1¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	$257	23.6¢	Lost
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?	No	$600	73.3¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$651	71.1¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	$701	88.9¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10?	No	$215	80.0¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	$200	80.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	$600	85.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	$15	77.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	$352	38.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	No	$394	80.7¢	Won
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	$548	82.0¢	Won
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	KT Rolster	$179	47.0¢	Won

Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Won
No$312 @ 58.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?Won
No$886 @ 82.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$364 @ 18.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$200 @ 85.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Won
No$35 @ 61.3¢
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?Won
No$276 @ 78.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?Lost
No$11 @ 20.0¢
Will Trump say "Boy oh boy" this week? (April 20 - 26)Won
No$125 @ 68.1¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$30 @ 77.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June?Lost
No$67 @ 23.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$551 @ 74.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$47 @ 79.3¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$400 @ 86.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?Won
No$20 @ 76.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Won
No$358 @ 81.3¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$80 @ 68.9¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$276 @ 80.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 20, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 29.0¢
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30?Won
No$673 @ 80.5¢
Will Trump say "Trump Strait" or "Strait of Trump" this week? (April 20 - 26)Won
No$100 @ 89.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?Won
No$767 @ 86.4¢
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?Won
No$207 @ 69.0¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$101 @ 88.8¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?Won
No$352 @ 82.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$252 @ 89.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?Won
No$152 @ 84.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?Lost
No$269 @ 24.8¢
Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 85.8¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 89.2¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June?Won
No$264 @ 88.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?Won
No$300 @ 89.0¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Won
Yes$173 @ 81.2¢
Will Trump post "Viktor" or "Orban" or "Orbán" this week on Truth Social?Won
No$10 @ 83.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?Won
No$223 @ 89.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$21 @ 30.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Won
No$200 @ 83.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $212 Week of April 20 2026?Won
No$20 @ 87.9¢
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May?Won
No$81 @ 84.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?Lost
No$257 @ 23.6¢
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?Won
No$600 @ 73.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$651 @ 71.1¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Won
No$701 @ 88.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10?Won
No$215 @ 80.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Won
No$200 @ 80.0¢
Will Trump visit China by June 30?Won
Yes$600 @ 85.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Won
No$15 @ 77.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?Lost
No$352 @ 38.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Won
No$394 @ 80.7¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Won
No$548 @ 82.0¢
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2Won
KT Rolster$179 @ 47.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	No	$587	38.5¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	No	$554	76.7¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$528	73.4¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$500	87.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$352	35.2¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$322	82.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Geopolitics	No	$300	97.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	—	No	$300	84.3¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$300	61.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$300	91.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?	—	No	$290	91.4¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$256	44.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	—	No	$240	82.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?	—	No	$216	64.6¢
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	—	No	$215	92.3¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?	Other	No	$200	72.3¢
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$200	68.4¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?	—	No	$200	86.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	—	No	$200	82.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$190	80.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	Tech	No	$177	42.0¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$150	85.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$133	68.0¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Tech	No	$133	65.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$126	61.6¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December?	Other	No	$108	29.7¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Tech	No	$107	36.1¢
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in August?	—	No	$100	91.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?	—	No	$100	91.9¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?	—	No	$100	86.0¢

Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
No$587 @ 38.5¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
No$554 @ 76.7¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$528 @ 73.4¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Geopolitics
No$500 @ 87.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$352 @ 35.2¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$322 @ 82.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Geopolitics
No$300 @ 97.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?—
No$300 @ 84.3¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$300 @ 61.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$300 @ 91.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?—
No$290 @ 91.4¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$256 @ 44.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?—
No$240 @ 82.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?—
No$216 @ 64.6¢
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?—
No$215 @ 92.3¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?Other
No$200 @ 72.3¢
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?Tech
No$200 @ 68.4¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?—
No$200 @ 86.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?—
No$200 @ 82.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?—
No$190 @ 80.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Tech
No$177 @ 42.0¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$150 @ 85.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$133 @ 68.0¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Tech
No$133 @ 65.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$126 @ 61.6¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December?Other
No$108 @ 29.7¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Tech
No$107 @ 36.1¢
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in August?—
No$100 @ 91.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?—
No$100 @ 91.9¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?—
No$100 @ 86.0¢