0xb3d7…7504

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb3d7736055eefc5948890303e6410f755b6f7504
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.6pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

78% @ 69.2¢

Brier

0.084

Resolved

167

Avg size

$95

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	74% (32/43)	+6%	43
Politics	92% (12/13)	+21%	13
Geopolitics	100% (3/3)	+30%	3
Crypto	100% (3/3)	+16%	3
Tech	100% (2/2)	+43%	2
Business	50% (1/2)	+4%	2
Sports	100% (1/1)	+23%	1

Other43 bets
Hit rate
74% (32/43)
ROI
+6%
Politics13 bets
Hit rate
92% (12/13)
ROI
+21%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+30%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+16%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+43%
Business2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+4%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+23%

Track record

81% hit · 54/67

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	No	$312	58.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	No	$705	80.6¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$364	18.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$200	85.5¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	$35	61.3¢	Won
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?	No	$276	78.0¢	Won
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?	No	$11	20.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Boy oh boy" this week? (April 20 - 26)	No	$125	68.1¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$30	77.0¢	Won
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June?	No	$67	23.9¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$551	74.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$47	79.3¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$400	86.7¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	No	$20	76.0¢	Won
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	$358	81.3¢	Won
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$80	68.9¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$276	80.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 20, 2026?	No	$5	29.0¢	Lost
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30?	No	$673	80.5¢	Won
Will Trump say "Trump Strait" or "Strait of Trump" this week? (April 20 - 26)	No	$100	89.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	$767	86.4¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	$207	69.0¢	Won
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$101	88.8¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?	No	$352	82.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$252	89.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?	No	$152	84.2¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	No	$269	24.8¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026?	No	$100	85.8¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	$100	89.2¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?	No	$300	89.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	$173	81.2¢	Won
Will Trump post "Viktor" or "Orban" or "Orbán" this week on Truth Social?	No	$10	83.9¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	No	$223	89.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$21	30.6¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	$200	83.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $212 Week of April 20 2026?	No	$20	87.9¢	Won
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May?	No	$81	84.1¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	$257	23.6¢	Lost
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?	No	$600	73.3¢	Won
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in December?	No	$36	11.3¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$651	71.1¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	$701	88.9¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10?	No	$215	80.0¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	$200	80.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	$600	85.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	$15	77.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	$352	38.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	No	$394	80.7¢	Won
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	$548	82.0¢	Won
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	KT Rolster	$179	47.0¢	Won

Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Won
No$312 @ 58.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?Won
No$705 @ 80.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$364 @ 18.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$200 @ 85.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Won
No$35 @ 61.3¢
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?Won
No$276 @ 78.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?Lost
No$11 @ 20.0¢
Will Trump say "Boy oh boy" this week? (April 20 - 26)Won
No$125 @ 68.1¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$30 @ 77.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June?Lost
No$67 @ 23.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$551 @ 74.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$47 @ 79.3¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$400 @ 86.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?Won
No$20 @ 76.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Won
No$358 @ 81.3¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$80 @ 68.9¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$276 @ 80.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 20, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 29.0¢
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30?Won
No$673 @ 80.5¢
Will Trump say "Trump Strait" or "Strait of Trump" this week? (April 20 - 26)Won
No$100 @ 89.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?Won
No$767 @ 86.4¢
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?Won
No$207 @ 69.0¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$101 @ 88.8¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?Won
No$352 @ 82.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$252 @ 89.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?Won
No$152 @ 84.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?Lost
No$269 @ 24.8¢
Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 85.8¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 89.2¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?Won
No$300 @ 89.0¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Won
Yes$173 @ 81.2¢
Will Trump post "Viktor" or "Orban" or "Orbán" this week on Truth Social?Won
No$10 @ 83.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?Won
No$223 @ 89.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$21 @ 30.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Won
No$200 @ 83.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $212 Week of April 20 2026?Won
No$20 @ 87.9¢
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May?Won
No$81 @ 84.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?Lost
No$257 @ 23.6¢
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?Won
No$600 @ 73.3¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in December?Lost
No$36 @ 11.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$651 @ 71.1¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Won
No$701 @ 88.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10?Won
No$215 @ 80.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Won
No$200 @ 80.0¢
Will Trump visit China by June 30?Won
Yes$600 @ 85.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Won
No$15 @ 77.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?Lost
No$352 @ 38.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Won
No$394 @ 80.7¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Won
No$548 @ 82.0¢
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2Won
KT Rolster$179 @ 47.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	No	$587	38.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolitics	No	$550	91.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$528	73.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	Other	No	$525	80.6¢
Kash Patel out by June 30?	Politics	No	$494	68.2¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?	Tech	No	$420	84.7¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Other	No	$412	61.0¢
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$410	80.5¢
Nothing Ever Happens: June	—	Nothing	$400	91.7¢
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	Tech	No	$379	31.5¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	No	$354	74.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$352	35.2¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$322	82.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$300	61.1¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Tech	Yes	$300	91.5¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$300	88.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$256	44.2¢
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?	Politics	No	$240	84.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June?	Other	No	$200	93.3¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$150	85.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$133	68.0¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Tech	No	$133	65.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$126	61.6¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30?	—	No	$126	46.5¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Tech	No	$107	36.1¢
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June?	Politics	No	$100	95.8¢
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?	Tech	No	$100	91.6¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?	Politics	No	$100	96.9¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30?	Tech	No	$100	87.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?	Politics	No	$100	97.8¢

Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
No$587 @ 38.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
No$550 @ 91.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$528 @ 73.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?Other
No$525 @ 80.6¢
Kash Patel out by June 30?Politics
No$494 @ 68.2¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?Tech
No$420 @ 84.7¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?Other
No$412 @ 61.0¢
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$410 @ 80.5¢
Nothing Ever Happens: June—
Nothing$400 @ 91.7¢
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?Tech
No$379 @ 31.5¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
No$354 @ 74.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$352 @ 35.2¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$322 @ 82.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$300 @ 61.1¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech
Yes$300 @ 91.5¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?Politics
No$300 @ 88.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$256 @ 44.2¢
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?Politics
No$240 @ 84.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June?Other
No$200 @ 93.3¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$150 @ 85.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$133 @ 68.0¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Tech
No$133 @ 65.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$126 @ 61.6¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30?—
No$126 @ 46.5¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Tech
No$107 @ 36.1¢
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June?Politics
No$100 @ 95.8¢
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?Tech
No$100 @ 91.6¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?Politics
No$100 @ 96.9¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30?Tech
No$100 @ 87.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?Politics
No$100 @ 97.8¢