0xb1c1…9c63

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb1c1e1c31906b20d66d09c701502c93a5b099c63
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+14.0pp

ROI

+16%

Win rate

94% @ 79.7¢

Brier

0.031

Resolved

Avg size

$117

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	100% (26/26)	+18%	26
Other	95% (20/21)	+12%	21
Tech	100% (4/4)	+17%	4
Geopolitics	67% (2/3)	+13%	3
Sports	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Economy	100% (1/1)	+19%	1

Politics26 bets
Hit rate
100% (26/26)
ROI
+18%
Other21 bets
Hit rate
95% (20/21)
ROI
+12%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
100% (4/4)
ROI
+17%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+13%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+19%

Track record

93% hit · 53/57

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$15	1.8¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	Yes	$56	89.0¢	Won
Will Nepali Congress win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?	No	$50	89.0¢	Won
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?	Yes	$101	73.7¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$100	88.0¢	Won
Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?	Yes	$90	88.7¢	Won
Will Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?	Yes	$201	85.0¢	Won
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$15	5.3¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$100	86.0¢	Won
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?	No	$201	82.3¢	Won
Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	$100	88.0¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$116	82.4¢	Won
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?	Yes	$201	89.2¢	Won
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$277	89.2¢	Won
Will Thorsten Kornblum win the next Braunschweig mayoral election?	Yes	$100	88.0¢	Won
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day?	Up	$26	68.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?	No	$85	86.0¢	Won
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?	No	$232	89.0¢	Won
Will Liam Shrivastava win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral election?	Yes	$101	83.0¢	Won
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?	Yes	$20	63.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$101	82.0¢	Won
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	$50	84.0¢	Won
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	No	$100	86.7¢	Won
Will PI get the second-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections?	No	$68	88.9¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	No	$100	89.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	$20	73.0¢	Won
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	$103	30.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	$118	85.1¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	No	$100	86.0¢	Won
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$101	84.0¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	No	$100	89.5¢	Won
Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$201	85.1¢	Won
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	No	$51	82.0¢	Won
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	$101	75.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	$337	84.2¢	Won
Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?	No	$201	89.1¢	Won
Will Cindy Holscher win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$201	88.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$101	80.0¢	Won
Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?	Yes	$101	86.0¢	Won
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?	No	$200	82.0¢	Won
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$93	86.9¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	$101	83.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$470	86.9¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	No	$2	89.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	$115	90.0¢	Won
Will Christina Hines be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?	Yes	$101	80.8¢	Won
Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5?	No	$103	90.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	No	$50	75.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast hit 475 Million subscribers by March 31?	No	$67	90.0¢	Won
Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?	Yes	$302	87.0¢	Won

Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$15 @ 1.8¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Won
Yes$56 @ 89.0¢
Will Nepali Congress win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?Won
No$50 @ 89.0¢
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?Won
Yes$101 @ 73.7¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$100 @ 88.0¢
Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?Won
Yes$90 @ 88.7¢
Will Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?Won
Yes$201 @ 85.0¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$15 @ 5.3¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$100 @ 86.0¢
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?Won
No$201 @ 82.3¢
Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Won
Yes$100 @ 88.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$116 @ 82.4¢
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?Won
Yes$201 @ 89.2¢
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$277 @ 89.2¢
Will Thorsten Kornblum win the next Braunschweig mayoral election?Won
Yes$100 @ 88.0¢
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day?Won
Up$26 @ 68.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?Won
No$85 @ 86.0¢
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?Won
No$232 @ 89.0¢
Will Liam Shrivastava win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral election?Won
Yes$101 @ 83.0¢
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?Won
Yes$20 @ 63.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Won
Yes$101 @ 82.0¢
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Won
No$50 @ 84.0¢
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?Won
No$100 @ 86.7¢
Will PI get the second-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections?Won
No$68 @ 88.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 89.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Won
No$20 @ 73.0¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Lost
Yes$103 @ 30.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?Won
No$118 @ 85.1¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Won
No$100 @ 86.0¢
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?Won
Yes$101 @ 84.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Won
No$100 @ 89.5¢
Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$201 @ 85.1¢
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Won
No$51 @ 82.0¢
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
Yes$101 @ 75.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Won
Yes$337 @ 84.2¢
Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?Won
No$201 @ 89.1¢
Will Cindy Holscher win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election?Won
Yes$201 @ 88.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$101 @ 80.0¢
Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?Won
Yes$101 @ 86.0¢
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?Won
No$200 @ 82.0¢
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$93 @ 86.9¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Won
Yes$101 @ 83.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
Yes$470 @ 86.9¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Won
No$2 @ 89.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Won
No$115 @ 90.0¢
Will Christina Hines be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?Won
Yes$101 @ 80.8¢
Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5?Won
No$103 @ 90.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Won
No$50 @ 75.0¢
Will MrBeast hit 475 Million subscribers by March 31?Won
No$67 @ 90.0¢
Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?Won
Yes$302 @ 87.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$168	88.0¢
Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?	—	Yes	$119	87.0¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$110	46.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$100	90.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Economy	Yes	$100	91.4¢
Will Rayssa Furlan win the most votes in the 2026 Amapá Senate election?	Politics	Yes	$100	85.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Politics	Yes	$100	86.0¢
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$50	37.1¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$47	43.0¢

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$168 @ 88.0¢
Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?—
Yes$119 @ 87.0¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$110 @ 46.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$100 @ 90.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Economy
Yes$100 @ 91.4¢
Will Rayssa Furlan win the most votes in the 2026 Amapá Senate election?Politics
Yes$100 @ 85.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Politics
Yes$100 @ 86.0¢
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$50 @ 37.1¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$47 @ 43.0¢