0xaf82…92f2

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xaf82946717a5996cb839940ad6f6408b3bb492f2
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

-8.5pp

ROI

+39%

Win rate

54% @ 62.3¢

Brier

0.308

Resolved

145

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	60% (21/35)	+7%	35
Other	70% (19/27)	+57%	27
Economy	100% (1/1)	+96%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+138%	1

Politics35 bets
Hit rate
60% (21/35)
ROI
+7%
Other27 bets
Hit rate
70% (19/27)
ROI
+57%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+96%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+138%

Track record

66% hit · 42/64

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$10	79.2¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$10	80.8¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	Yes	$77	85.0¢	Won
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	No	$5	86.5¢	Won
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$10	83.8¢	Lost
Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	$21	86.5¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$17	81.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	No	$2	86.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	Yes	$5	46.0¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?	No	$11	89.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$11	37.0¢	Lost
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?	No	$11	75.2¢	Won
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$26	78.4¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$10	86.0¢	Lost
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	$8	82.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026?	No	$10	87.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$51	77.8¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	$11	27.4¢	Lost
James Comey arrested by April 29?	Yes	$10	64.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$10	72.0¢	Won
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	$112	9.8¢	Lost
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match?	Yes	$11	88.0¢	Won
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	Yes	$11	33.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$9	43.0¢	Won
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	Yes	$11	21.0¢	Won
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	Yes	$21	88.5¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	$17	76.2¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	No	$5	86.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$10	88.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$10	23.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	1.5¢	Lost
Kash Patel out by July 31?	No	$18	87.7¢	Won
Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	$29	80.8¢	Won
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	$10	65.1¢	Won
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	$16	71.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	$124	75.3¢	Lost
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$10	51.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$11	42.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$11	31.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$12	76.7¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$43	32.5¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	$1	15.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$114	11.2¢	Won
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	$249	18.9¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	$8	84.0¢	Won
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Kash Patel out by May 31?	No	$17	85.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	No	$11	82.3¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	$13	65.0¢	Lost

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$10 @ 79.2¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$10 @ 80.8¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?Won
Yes$77 @ 85.0¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 86.5¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$10 @ 83.8¢
Will Putin visit China by May 31?Won
Yes$21 @ 86.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$17 @ 81.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 86.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 46.0¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?Won
No$11 @ 89.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$11 @ 37.0¢
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?Won
No$11 @ 75.2¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$26 @ 78.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 86.0¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?Won
Yes$8 @ 82.0¢
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 87.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
No$51 @ 77.8¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Lost
Yes$11 @ 27.4¢
James Comey arrested by April 29?Won
Yes$10 @ 64.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 72.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?Lost
Yes$112 @ 9.8¢
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match?Won
Yes$11 @ 88.0¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Lost
Yes$11 @ 33.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$9 @ 43.0¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?Won
Yes$11 @ 21.0¢
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?Won
Yes$21 @ 88.5¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Won
Yes$17 @ 76.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 86.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 88.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 23.0¢
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.5¢
Kash Patel out by July 31?Won
No$18 @ 87.7¢
Kash Patel out by June 30?Won
No$29 @ 80.8¢
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Won
Yes$10 @ 65.1¢
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Won
Yes$16 @ 71.8¢
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?Lost
Yes$124 @ 75.3¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 51.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$11 @ 42.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$11 @ 31.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$12 @ 76.7¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$43 @ 32.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 15.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$114 @ 11.2¢
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?Lost
Yes$249 @ 18.9¢
Will Trump visit China by June 30?Won
Yes$8 @ 84.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Kash Patel out by May 31?Won
No$17 @ 85.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?Won
No$11 @ 82.3¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?Lost
Yes$13 @ 65.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	No	$31	77.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$21	89.9¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$10	95.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$10	64.0¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$10	66.9¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$10	91.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$9	69.4¢

Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
No$31 @ 77.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
Yes$21 @ 89.9¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$10 @ 95.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$10 @ 64.0¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$10 @ 66.9¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$10 @ 91.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$9 @ 69.4¢